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海尔智家25Q1点评:新兴市场高增,持续提效
Huaan Securities· 2025-05-04 05:05
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haier Smart Home, with a projected P/E ratio of 11/10/9X for the upcoming years [9]. Core Views - The company's Q1 performance slightly exceeded expectations, driven by domestic subsidies and resilient contributions from emerging markets, alongside the effectiveness of digital transformation in cost reduction and efficiency improvement [6][8]. - Revenue for Q1 reached 79.118 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.06%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.487 billion yuan, up 15.09% year-on-year [8]. Revenue Analysis - Domestic sales supported by national subsidies and flexible contributions from emerging markets, with Q1 domestic and foreign sales growing by 7.8% and 12.6% year-on-year, respectively [8]. - Emerging markets showed significant growth, with North America, Europe, Middle East & Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia experiencing year-on-year growth rates of approximately 0%, +30%, +50%, +30%, and +20%, respectively [8]. - The Casarte brand continued to perform well, with a year-on-year growth of over 20% in Q1 [8]. Profitability - The gross margin for Q1 was 25.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 6.93%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - Cost reduction and efficiency improvements were attributed to supply chain optimization and digital transformation, leading to better gross and expense ratios [8]. Financial Forecast - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, projecting revenues of 304.093 billion yuan, 316.502 billion yuan, and 327.129 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.3%, 4.1%, and 3.4% [8]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 21.254 billion yuan, 23.346 billion yuan, and 24.804 billion yuan for the same years, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 13.4%, 9.8%, and 6.2% [8]. Shareholding Plan - The company announced a shareholding plan for 2025, targeting a scale of 757 million yuan, aimed at certain directors, senior management, and core technical personnel, with performance targets set for ROE exceeding 17.7% for 2025-2026 [8].