投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：毕慧 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0268536 投资咨询证号：Z0011311 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：bihui@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 生猪 2026 年 2 月 9 日 豆类日报 节前市场资金谨慎 豆类油脂震荡偏弱 核心观点 2 月 9 日，豆类油脂整体震荡偏弱。豆一期价冲高回落，期价围绕 10 日 均线窄幅波动，资金变化不大；豆二期价震荡偏弱,期价冲高回落，承压于 5 日均线压力，资金变化不大；豆粕期价震荡偏强，期价承压于 20 日、30 日和 60 日均线压力，资金变化不大；菜粕期价震荡偏弱，期价承压于 5 日均线压 力，资金变化不大。油脂期价维持震荡，豆油期价围绕 5 日和 20 日均线交汇 震荡为主，资金变化不大；棕榈油期价震荡偏弱，期价暂获 20 日均线支撑， 承压于 5 日均线压力，资金变化不大；菜籽油期价震荡偏弱，期价承压于 5 日 和 60 日均线压力，下方暂获 20 日均线支撑，资金变化不大。 豆类市场外弱内稳，节前市场交投谨慎。巴西新豆收割进度快 ...

Group 1: Soybean Market Overview - CBOT soybean futures declined due to light trading post-holiday and competition from Brazilian soybeans, with March soybean settling at $10.45-3/4 per bushel, the lowest since October 23 [1] - March soybean meal futures fell by $3.40, closing at $296.00 per short ton, while March soybean oil futures increased by $0.74, settling at $0.4930 per pound [1] - Domestic soybean meal prices remained stable, with a USDA announcement of a $12 billion agricultural aid plan, although soybean farmers indicated that the subsidies are insufficient to cover losses from low prices and trade disputes [2] Group 2: Export and Production Insights - U.S. soybean export sales for the week ending December 18 showed a net increase of 987,100 tons, a decrease of 59% from the previous week and 46% from the four-week average [2] - Brazil's soybean planting is nearly complete with favorable weather conditions, leading to increased production forecasts from several analysis firms [2] - Argentina's soybean planting is 86% complete, with good growth conditions reported [2] Group 3: Corn Market Dynamics - CBOT corn futures experienced a slight decline amid light trading, with March corn settling at $4.37-1/2 per bushel, supported by strong export momentum [4] - Domestic corn prices showed minor fluctuations, with processing enterprises in Shandong adjusting purchase prices based on supply [5][6] - There are rumors of a corn auction scheduled for January 9, with specific pricing details for different regions [6]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant development of the oilseed industry in the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, emphasizing the role of systematic policy support in driving high-quality industrial growth and employment increase [1][2] Group 1: Policy Support - The Corps has implemented 25 financial policies aimed at supporting agriculture, which have created over 100,000 job opportunities closely linked to agricultural industries in southern Xinjiang [1] - The establishment of a three-tiered cultivation system has led to the creation of six national-level advantageous specialty industry clusters and five national-level modern agricultural parks [1] Group 2: Financial Subsidies - Financial subsidies include 230 yuan per mu for wheat and 300 yuan per mu for soybean planting, along with a target price subsidy of 18,600 yuan per ton for seed cotton [2] - A total of 360 million yuan has been allocated for livestock industry subsidies, and facility agriculture has been included in the national loan interest subsidy pilot program [2] Group 3: Training and Risk Management - The Corps is actively organizing training programs focused on agricultural machinery operation and digital planting to help traditional farmers transition to skilled technicians [2] - Agricultural insurance covers seven types of crops and sheep, with a 92% coverage rate for specialty fruit and nut insurance in southern Xinjiang, along with small loan interest subsidies for impoverished populations [2]

Core Insights - Republican lawmakers are urging President Trump for additional farm relief and support for agricultural equipment manufacturers due to the adverse effects of his tariff policies on farmers and the equipment industry [1][2][3] Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Farmers - Farmers are experiencing financial strain due to Trump's tariff policies, which have negatively affected their reliance on exports, particularly to China [2] - The combination of low commodity prices and high input costs, such as fertilizer, has forced farmers to reduce spending, impacting their ability to purchase new equipment [2][3] - The demand for new equipment has decreased, leading to layoffs at major manufacturers like Deere [2] Group 2: Manufacturer Perspectives - Deere's agriculture division president noted that the U.S. market is under significant pressure due to trade flow disruptions and escalating internal costs [3] - The Association of Equipment Manufacturers expressed concern that high tariffs on essential parts could inadvertently harm farmers and increase costs for consumers [3] Group 3: Legislative Actions and Proposals - Senator Chuck Grassley has communicated with the White House and relevant departments, advocating for targeted relief from tariffs for equipment manufacturers [4] - Other Republican senators, including John Hoeven, have discussed the need for aid to farmers regarding equipment costs during meetings with Trump [5] - Trump has suggested reducing regulatory burdens on equipment manufacturers to lower costs, contingent on those companies reducing their prices [6] Group 4: Challenges Ahead - There is skepticism about the feasibility of increasing farmers' income to enable them to purchase new equipment, given the already tight margins in farming operations [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the efforts of Lianyungang City, Haizhou District, to accelerate the autumn harvest and sowing process, which was delayed due to continuous rainy weather since September. The district implemented various measures, including financial support and technical guidance, to ensure timely completion of agricultural activities [1][3]. Group 1: Harvest and Sowing Progress - As of November 19, the district has completed the harvesting of approximately 339,600 acres of autumn grain, with 253,000 acres of wheat sown, achieving a progress rate of 82% [1]. - The district's agricultural strategy includes a focus on timely harvesting and sowing to mitigate the impact of adverse weather conditions, ensuring a successful agricultural yield for the upcoming year [5]. Group 2: Financial Support and Subsidies - The district allocated an additional 1.1 million yuan in financial support specifically for rice harvesting and drying operations, alongside the implementation of central disaster relief funds [3]. - A total of 165 large-scale rice farmers, cultivating over 25,000 acres, are eligible for district-level subsidies, with an average subsidy of 18 yuan per acre for the rice and wheat areas affected by the weather [3]. Group 3: Agricultural Techniques and Support - The district's agricultural departments are actively promoting the use of moisture-resistant crop varieties and precision sowing techniques to address soil moisture issues [5]. - Continuous technical support is being provided to farmers, including guidance on sowing depth, plant density, and post-sowing soil compaction to enhance wheat germination rates [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the challenges faced by American farmers due to rising production costs and falling crop prices, exacerbated by the U.S. government's tariffs on Chinese goods, particularly soybeans, which has led to a significant drop in exports to China [1][3][20]. Group 1: Impact on Farmers - Farmers are experiencing a dramatic increase in production costs, with labor costs rising by 47%, fertilizer costs up by 37%, and seed and fuel prices increasing by 18% and 32% respectively [5][7]. - The price of core crops like corn has plummeted from over $7 per unit in 2022 to approximately $4, a decline of over 40%, squeezing farmers' profit margins [7][9]. - A survey indicated that 65% of farmers are more concerned about their financial situation compared to the previous year, with 33% fearing an imminent agricultural crisis [9]. Group 2: Export Challenges - China's suspension of soybean purchases from the U.S. has led to significant stockpiling of soybeans in American warehouses, with some crops even becoming spoiled [5][20]. - At its peak, China accounted for nearly 30% of U.S. soybean exports, making the loss of this market particularly damaging [3][20]. Group 3: Economic Ripple Effects - The agricultural crisis is beginning to affect related manufacturing sectors, particularly agricultural equipment production, as farmers delay purchases of machinery [9][11]. - The U.S. government has been urged to provide emergency aid to farmers, with previous administrations having allocated substantial subsidies during trade disputes [11][13]. Group 4: Government Response - The U.S. Department of Agriculture has already disbursed $8 billion in aid since March and plans to allocate an additional $2 billion [13]. - Investigations into potential market manipulation by seed and fertilizer companies are underway, aiming to address rising costs at their source [13][14]. Group 5: Comparison with China - The article contrasts the U.S. approach to agricultural challenges with China's, noting that China has implemented targeted support measures to stabilize its agricultural sector [16][18]. - China's diversification of soybean imports from countries like Brazil and Argentina has reduced its reliance on U.S. exports, highlighting a strategic advantage in managing agricultural supply chains [18][20].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government is expected to announce a $15 billion aid plan for farmers to alleviate economic difficulties caused by record corn harvests and rising costs, amidst challenges such as tariffs and labor shortages [1][2][4]. Group 1: Economic Challenges Facing Farmers - Rising costs, retaliatory tariffs, and labor shortages due to immigration policies are significantly impacting U.S. agriculture [1][2]. - The USDA projects that U.S. agricultural production costs will reach $467.4 billion by 2025, an increase of $12 billion from the previous year [1]. - The number of farm bankruptcies in the U.S. has reached its highest level since 2021 in the first half of this year [1]. Group 2: Impact of Harvest Season - The current harvest season has not improved the situation for farmers, with oversupply leading to lower prices for corn and soybeans [2]. - Farmers are facing estimated losses of $45 billion for major crops like corn, soybeans, and wheat before government subsidies take effect [2]. - Many farmers have been operating at a loss for several years, with expectations that conditions will worsen in 2025 [2]. Group 3: Government Aid and Industry Reactions - The Trump administration's aid plan, initially set to be announced, may face delays due to potential government shutdowns [2][3]. - While some farmers welcome the aid, others express that it is a temporary solution and emphasize the need for market rebuilding rather than reliance on government support [3]. - The agricultural sector is divided on the issue of aid, with some farmers willing to accept assistance while others prefer to sustain themselves through market means [3]. Group 4: Broader Industry Concerns - Previous government aid has been substantial, with projections of over $40 billion in subsidies for farmers in 2025, the second-highest since 1933 [4]. - Other affected industries, such as distilled spirits and canned goods, are voicing concerns about being overlooked in the aid discussions, highlighting the broader economic impact of tariffs [5].

Core Insights - U.S. soybean farmers prefer stable markets over government subsidies, indicating a desire for trade agreements rather than financial aid [1][3][8] - The U.S. government is preparing to announce substantial support measures for farmers, potentially exceeding $10 billion, but these measures may only provide temporary relief [1][8] Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. soybean export value is projected to reach $24.58 billion in 2024, accounting for 14% of total agricultural exports [1] - China was the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans, purchasing $12.64 billion worth last year, but has not bought any since May [2] - As of January-August 2025, China's soybean imports totaled 73.31 million tons, with Brazil supplying 71.6% and the U.S. only 22.8% [2] Group 2: Financial Pressures - Current market conditions are reminiscent of previous trade disputes, with U.S. farmers losing approximately 20% market share to Brazil during past tariffs [5] - Increased costs for fertilizers, pesticides, and equipment have significantly raised the cost of soybean production, leading to a deteriorating profit margin [6] - The breakeven price for U.S. soybeans is projected to rise from $12.35 to $12.50 per bushel, while current futures prices are significantly lower, causing financial strain on farmers [6] Group 3: Government Response - The Trump administration is considering using tariff revenues to subsidize farmers and is collaborating with agricultural credit agencies to ensure funding for the next planting season [8] - Previous government aid programs provided $28 billion to farmers in 2018 and 2019, but experts argue that such measures do not address the long-term loss of market share [8] - The administration's proposal to increase biofuel blending quotas aims to boost domestic demand for soybeans, but may not sufficiently offset export losses [8] Group 4: Urgency for Trade Agreements - There is a pressing need for a trade agreement with China, as delays could lead to China sourcing soybeans from Brazil and Argentina, potentially resulting in a permanent loss of market access for U.S. farmers [9]

Group 1: Commodity Price Trends - As of September 26, 2023, the December soybean futures price closed at 1013.75 cents per bushel, reflecting a slight increase of 0.32% this year, but a significant decline of 28.63% over the past three years. The December corn futures price was 422 cents per bushel, down 7.96% year-to-date and 36.97% over three years [1] - Since reaching historical highs in 2022, the price index for CME soybean and corn futures has shown a slow downward trend, returning to levels seen several years ago [1] Group 2: Agricultural Economic Challenges - U.S. farmers are heavily reliant on weather conditions for their harvests, and agricultural yields directly impact their income. Rising production costs due to prolonged inflation have reached historical highs, while soybean and corn prices have remained low for several years, causing significant financial strain on farmers [4] - A survey conducted among 1,034 corn farmers revealed that nearly half (46%) believe the U.S. is on the brink of a farm crisis, with 80% expressing concerns about the economic viability of their farms [4][5] Group 3: Political Implications of Agriculture - The agricultural sector's performance is closely tied to U.S. political dynamics, particularly in key soybean and corn-producing states that predominantly lean Republican. The economic conditions of farmers can influence election outcomes, especially in swing states [6][7] - The Trump administration's proposed "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" aims to allocate approximately $66 billion to the agricultural sector, but the majority of this funding is directed towards production safety networks, leaving farmers with minimal relief amid rising costs [8] Group 4: Tariff Impact on Agriculture - High tariffs have been identified as a significant factor contributing to the challenges faced by U.S. agriculture, with the OECD predicting a decline in economic growth rates due to these policies. The actual tax rate is expected to rise to its highest level since 1933, further straining the agricultural sector [9] - The agricultural workforce, which numbers around 3.4 million, may see a decline in recent years, reflecting the broader economic pressures affecting this critical industry [9] Group 5: Market vs. Government Intervention - The debate continues over whether to rely on market mechanisms or government intervention to address agricultural challenges. Market principles suggest reducing trade barriers, while government intervention typically involves subsidies. However, the effectiveness of subsidies is limited given the federal government's high debt levels [10]

Core Insights - The U.S. soybean industry is facing severe challenges due to the Trump administration's tariff policies, which have resulted in the loss of the Chinese market, a critical buyer for U.S. soybeans [2] - The American Soybean Association has reported that since the fall harvest began, China, the largest buyer, has not placed any orders, highlighting the urgency of the situation for U.S. farmers [2] - The agricultural sector is experiencing financial strain due to rising production costs and declining soybean prices, which have dropped approximately 40% from the historical highs of 2022 [3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts a record soybean production of 4.3 billion bushels this year, but prices are significantly lower compared to previous years [3] - The soybean supply chain, which includes fertilizers, machinery, storage, transportation, finance, and ports, is at risk, threatening related employment [3] - Agricultural loan rates in the U.S. are at a ten-year high, with agricultural debt expected to rise to nearly $562 billion by 2025, increasing the risk of defaults in the Midwest [3] Group 2: Trade Relations - China accounts for approximately 60% of global soybean imports, and prior to 2018, the U.S. exported an average of 28% of its soybeans to China [4] - In the 2023-2024 fiscal year, U.S. soybean exports to China are projected to be nearly 25 million tons, significantly higher than the 4.9 million tons exported to the European Union [4] - Brazil has overtaken the U.S. as China's largest soybean supplier, with Brazilian exports to China increasing by over 280% since 2010 [4] Group 3: Political Implications - Farmers in agricultural states that previously supported Trump are now expressing dissatisfaction due to the financial impact of tariffs, which could influence the upcoming 2026 midterm elections [3] - The American Soybean Association has consistently urged the government to prioritize soybean issues in trade negotiations with China to prevent further market share loss to countries like Brazil [2]