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建信期货棉花日报-20260106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 02:18
Report Information - Report Date: January 6, 2026 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton showed a trend of rising on high volume and then falling back. The spot cotton price index of grade 328 was 15,615 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market had average trading, and the cotton fabric market had weak sales [7]. - As of January 4, 2026, the cumulative national cotton inspection was 6.5425 million tons, with a potential increase in the 2025/26 output. The downstream product prices followed the cotton price to strengthen steadily, and the overall inventory pressure was not large. After the short - term speculation on the expected reduction in planting, more positive factors were needed to support the price. The upper integer - level resistance was strong [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: Zhengzhou cotton rose on high volume and then fell back. The latest grade 328 cotton price index was 15,615 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. The 2025/26 cotton prices in southern and northern Xinjiang were different, and the basis also varied. The cotton yarn market had average trading, and the cotton fabric market was weak [7]. - Operation Suggestions: In January, attention could be paid to the downstream restocking before the Spring Festival. Fundamentally, the upper integer - level resistance was strong [8]. 2. Industry News - As of January 4, 2026, 1,094 cotton processing enterprises participated in the inspection. The national cumulative inspection was 6.5425 million tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from the previous day. Xinjiang's inspection volume was 6.4656 million tons, and the inland was 43,000 tons [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report presented multiple data charts, including cotton price indices, futures prices, spreads, and inventory data, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [14][16][17]
棉花、棉纱日报-20251222
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-12-22 09:30
Group 1: Market Information - Futures contracts' closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open - interest data for CF and CY contracts are presented, including CF01, CF05, CF09, CY01, CY05, and CY09 [2] - Spot prices of various cotton and yarn products are provided, such as CCIndex3128B, Cot A, and CY IndexC32S, along with their price changes [2] - Price spreads are given, including cotton and yarn inter - month spreads and cross - variety spreads, as well as domestic - foreign spreads [2] Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market - As of December 18, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.4244 million tons, accounting for 78% of the estimated annual U.S. cotton production, 9% slower than the same period last year [4] - The ON - CALL data shows that as of December 12, 2025, the number of un - priced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2603 contract decreased by 1,039 to 21,369, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared to last week [4] - In November 2025, the export volume of all - cotton grey fabrics was 48.58 million meters, a year - on - year increase of 22%, and the export value was $46.23 million, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [5] - The new cotton in the 25/26 season is in good harvest, but the sales progress is fast, and ginneries have little pressure to sell. There are rumors that the cotton planting area in Xinjiang may decrease next year, and Xinjiang textile mills are expected to expand production capacity, all of which are positive for cotton prices [6] - Sino - U.S. relations are easing, and the mutual reduction of tariffs is beneficial for China's textile and clothing exports [6] - The cotton fundamentals are strong, and the price is expected to rise further. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [6] Trading Strategies - The U.S. cotton is expected to fluctuate in a range, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish in the short - term [7] - For arbitrage and options trading, it is recommended to wait and see [8][9] Yarn Industry - The overall atmosphere in the pure - cotton yarn market is weak, except for high - count yarns. Some traders are optimistic about future consumption and buy on dips [9] - The pure - cotton grey fabric market remains differentiated. Weaving mills' orders have declined, and they mainly have small orders with tight delivery times. Profits are in the red, and they are not confident about the post - Chinese New Year market [9] Group 3: Options - Options contract data including closing prices, price change rates, implied volatility, and other parameters are presented for CF601C13400.CZC, CF601P13000.CZC, and CF601P12400.CZC [11] - The 10 - day HV of cotton increased slightly yesterday. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 is 6.7%, CF601 - P - 13000 is 11.4%, and CF601 - P - 12400 is 17.8% [11] - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton is 0.7339, and the volume PCR is 0.6421. The trading volumes of both call and put options have decreased today [12] - It is recommended to wait and see in options trading [13] Group 4: Relevant Attachments - Figures show various price spreads and basis data, including 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton price spread, 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month cotton basis, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [15][18][22][23]
棉花:震荡偏强关注需求20251221
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-12-21 12:50
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. Although the poor US cotton export data restricts its upward drive, the lack of new negative fundamentals limits its downward momentum. Attention should be paid to external market factors, and there may be a risk of decline if market risk appetite deteriorates [6][17] - The domestic cotton futures and spot prices continue to strengthen slightly, and the basis remains relatively firm. The high and stable basis supports cotton futures, but the increasing cotton warehouse receipts and the incomplete release of domestic cotton supply pressure limit the upward momentum of Zhengzhou cotton futures. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and it is too early to focus on next year's planting. It is better to discuss it after the Spring Festival in combination with demand. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend, but the upward space may be limited, and attention should be paid to the change of the spot basis [2][17] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data | Variety | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Trading Volume Change (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main - connected | 63.83 | 64.39 | 62.97 | 63.65 | - 0.18 | - 0.28 | 96897 | 10398 | 183446 | 1813 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main - connected | 13800 | 14070 | 13790 | 14015 | 180 | 1.30 | 1209539 | - 20174 | 761543 | 364044 | | Cotton Yarn Main - connected | 19980 | 20225 | 19950 | 20050 | 70 | 0.35 | 38934 | 5139 | 22821 | 1986 | [5] 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton fluctuated at a low level this week. The March contract once fell below 63 cents/pound on Tuesday due to the decline in crude oil prices and poor US cotton export data. However, driven by the US inflation data boosting interest - rate cut expectations and short - covering, it rebounded slightly in the second half of the week, recovering most of the losses on Tuesday. Currently, the poor US cotton export data makes ICE cotton lack upward drive, but in the context of an overall optimistic external market risk appetite, it temporarily holds the 63 - cent/pound line [6] - As of the week ending November 27, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 30,800 tons, a 8% decrease from the previous week and a 23% decrease from the four - week average. The weekly shipment volume was 27,700 tons, a 1% increase from the previous week and a 5% decrease from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season accounted for 51% of the annual forecasted total export volume, and the cumulative export shipment volume accounted for 41% of the annual total signed volume [7] - In India, both cotton import and export were strong in October. Textile exports were still affected by US tariffs. The raw cotton import volume in October was 127,000 tons, a record high in recent months. The export volume was 24,000 tons, a 33% increase from September and a 36% increase year - on - year. The textile export value in October was 1.55 billion US dollars. The Cotton Corporation of India has purchased about 4 million bales of new cotton, with a total inventory of 4.6 million bales [8] - ABRAPA's forecast of Brazil's cotton production in the 2025/26 season is lower than CONAB's. The cotton planting area in Mato Grosso state is expected to decline by 7.8% this season. The Brazilian Cotton Growers Association predicts that the cotton production in 2026 will reach 3.83 million tons [9] - In Pakistan, the demand for imported cotton has slightly improved, and the cotton production forecast remains in the range of 7 - 7.25 million bales. The local yarn demand is continuously weak, and some spinning enterprises are selling inventory at low prices. Yarn exports are mainly to the Chinese market [10] - In Bangladesh, it is expected that the import volume of US cotton will increase slightly in the next few months. Cotton import procurement is still sporadic. Although clothing and textile export orders are relatively stable, yarn prices are flat, and producers are facing increasing operating pressure [10] - As of the week ending December 19, the operating rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 67%, 62%, and 65.5% respectively, showing little change [11] Domestic Cotton Situation - From December 12 - 19, domestic cotton futures and spot prices continued to be stable and slightly stronger. The procurement of cotton raw materials by spinning enterprises and cotton merchants was good in the first half of the week, mainly for low - basis spot lock - basis transactions. The spot basis changed little, and the price of 2025/26 machine - picked cotton in North and South Xinjiang was mostly between 14,900 - 15,100 yuan per ton [12] - As of December 19, the registered cotton warehouse receipts were 3,870, and the forecast warehouse receipts were 3,852, totaling 7,722, equivalent to 324,324 tons [12] - The sales of pure - cotton yarn in the market were generally poor, except for the relatively stable demand for combed high - count yarn. The prices of pure - cotton yarn fluctuated. Xinjiang spinning enterprises maintained a high operating rate with no inventory pressure, while the operating rate of inland spinning enterprises continued to decline. The pure - cotton grey cloth market remained weak, with local traders stocking up slightly, and the overall order volume did not recover much [13] 3. Basic Data Charts - The report provides charts on cotton sales progress, commercial inventory (weekly), spinning enterprises' cotton inventory (weekly), weaving enterprises' yarn inventory (weekly), spinning enterprises' cotton yarn inventory (weekly), cotton cloth enterprises' cotton cloth inventory (weekly), yarn enterprises' operating rate (weekly), cotton cloth enterprises' operating rate (weekly), pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton cloth CGC32 profit, cotton 1 - 5 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [14][15][16] 4. Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to external market factors. If market risk appetite deteriorates, there may be a risk of decline [17] - In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend, but the upward space may be limited. Attention should be paid to the change of the spot basis. It is too early to focus on next year's planting, and it is better to discuss it after the Spring Festival in combination with demand [2][17]
棉花:预计震荡等待新的驱动
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-02 11:54
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton had a strong rebound, with a weekly increase of over 2%, driven by optimistic expectations of international economic and trade situations. However, its further rise requires actual improvement in US cotton export data, and it's hard to confirm if it can break the downward trend since June. - Domestic cotton futures maintained a rebound but slowed around 13,650. With the average cost of new - cotton confirmed, the market focus returns to supply - demand. In the short term, the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton futures is restricted, but high basis and relatively low prices provide support, and it is expected to fluctuate [1][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - ICE Cotton Main Contract: Opened at 64.50 cents/pound, reached a high of 66.10 cents/pound, a low of 64.34 cents/pound, and closed at 65.56 cents/pound, with a rise of 1.38 cents and a 2.15% increase. Trading volume was 153,137 lots, an increase of 63,079 lots, and open interest was 142,193 lots, a decrease of 12,093 lots [4]. - Zhengzhou Cotton Main Contract: Opened at 13,550 yuan/ton, reached a high of 13,675 yuan/ton, a low of 13,520 yuan/ton, and closed at 13,595 yuan/ton, with a rise of 55 yuan and a 0.41% increase. Trading volume was 879,461 lots, a decrease of 278,007 lots, and open interest was 578,141 lots, a decrease of 12,768 lots [4]. - Cotton Yarn Main Contract: Opened at 19,810 yuan/ton, reached a high of 19,985 yuan/ton, a low of 19,730 yuan/ton, and closed at 19,875 yuan/ton, with a rise of 65 yuan and a 0.33% increase. Trading volume was 65,379 lots, an increase of 3,945 lots, and open interest was 23,426 lots, a decrease of 624 lots [4]. 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - ICE Cotton: Rebounded strongly, driven by optimistic expectations of international economic and trade situations, including a phased trade agreement between China and the US and new agreements between the US and other Asian countries [5]. - US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data: Suspended due to the US government shutdown [6]. - Other Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries - India: Seed - cotton listing was less than the same period last year. Tropical cyclone Monsa affected cotton fields, and the daily arrival of seed - cotton was estimated at 60,000 - 70,000 bales. Textile production index rose in September, while the clothing manufacturing index declined [7]. - Brazil: Cotton exports rebounded slightly in October. Affected by exchange rate fluctuations, weak demand, and falling international cotton prices, the export price competitiveness of cotton in Mato Grosso decreased. However, cottonseed and cottonseed oil were supported by strong demand. The estimated export volume in the first half of October was 255,000 tons, and the full - month volume was expected to reach 300,000 tons [8]. - Pakistan: Cotton import demand remained average. The estimated cotton output this year was 6.85 million bales, lower than the target. The local cotton price was stable, and the import demand was further suppressed by the rise in New York cotton futures prices. Local yarn demand was weak [8]. - Bangladesh: Cotton imports increased in September, reaching 152,250 tons, the highest since June 2024. Brazilian cotton was the main import source. Spinning enterprises faced high costs, difficulties in financing and obtaining letters of credit, and competition from low - priced Indian imported yarn [9]. - Southeast Asian Textile Industry: As of the week of October 31, the operating rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 66.5%, 61.5%, and 65.5% respectively [10]. Domestic Cotton Situation - Spot Market: Spot transactions were mainly for rigid demand, and the basis weakened slightly. Spinning mills' cotton raw material inventory increased, but there was a gap between large and small mills [11]. - Seed - cotton Purchase: The purchase price of machine - picked seed - cotton in Xinjiang remained stable. The purchase in northern Xinjiang was almost over, and the cost of new - cotton was basically confirmed [12]. - Cotton Warehouse Receipts: As of October 31, there were 2,414 registered warehouse receipts and 1,444 pending warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton, totaling 3,858 lots, equivalent to 162,036 tons [12]. - Downstream Market: The cotton yarn market was quiet, with spinning mills selling at reasonable prices. The export of high - count yarn was good. The cotton cloth market was also dull, with weak orders and inventory accumulation. The overall operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory of spinning mills increased slightly [13]. 3. Basic Data Charts - The report provided 14 charts related to cotton, including Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory, spinning mills' cotton inventory, etc. [15][16][17] 4. Operational Suggestions - ICE cotton's support at around 63 cents/pound is basically confirmed, but it's hard to confirm if it can break the downward trend since June. - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to fluctuate. In the short term, the rebound is restricted by new - cotton listing and hedging demand of ginning mills, but high basis and relatively low prices provide support, which may be more obvious near the delivery month [18].
棉花:期货价格震荡偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 02:04
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The futures price of cotton is fluctuating and showing a slightly stronger trend [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 14,030 yuan/ton with 0.00% daily increase and 14,155 yuan/ton in the night session with 0.89% increase; CY2511 closed at 20,060 yuan/ton with 0.00% daily increase and 20,180 yuan/ton in the night session; ICE US cotton 12 rose 0.79% to 68 cents/pound. For trading volume and open interest, CF2601 had 214,219 contracts traded with an increase of 16,126 from the previous day and an open interest of 727,579 contracts with a decrease of 6,325; CY2511 had 5,396 contracts traded with a decrease of 1,999 and an open interest of 21,958 contracts with an increase of 1,045 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: Zhengzhou cotton had 7,198 warehouse receipts with a decrease of 137 and 63 valid forecasts with a decrease of 125; cotton yarn had 64 warehouse receipts with a decrease of 5 and 0 valid forecasts with an increase of 69 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,272 yuan/ton with no change; Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,963 yuan/ton with no change; the price in Shandong was 15,243 yuan/ton with an increase of 35 (0.23%); in Hebei, it was 15,249 yuan/ton with an increase of 45 (0.30%); the 3128B index was 15,243 yuan/ton with an increase of 33 (0.22%); the international cotton index M was 74.95 cents/pound with a decrease of 0.24%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 20,720 yuan/ton with an increase of 20 (0.10%), and its arrival price was 22,053 yuan/ton with an increase of 18 (0.08%) [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 270 yuan/ton with a decrease of 10; the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,240 yuan/ton with no change [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading had partial good transactions. Southern Xinjiang cotton was mostly traded inland. The sales basis of inland warehouse cotton spot was stable, and the shipment was average. Spinning mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases. The mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 was CF09 + 1400 - 1550, inland self - pick; the mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang local machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5 was CF01+1300 and above, Xinjiang self - pick [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market was okay. Spinning mills' inventory continued to decline. Inland spinning mills had a cash - flow loss of about 500 yuan/ton, and the current production - restriction situation had no improvement. The pure - cotton grey fabric market was generally stable and weak, with limited market improvement. The downstream inquiry and transaction were average, and the inventory pressure of weaving factories slowly decreased [2]. - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures rose slightly, driven by the US interest - rate cut expectation [3]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4][5].
棉花:需求继续限制,郑棉期货反弹动能
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 02:02
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The demand continues to limit the rebound momentum of Zhengzhou cotton futures [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of CF2509 was 12,950 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.31%, and the night - session closing price was 12,880 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.54%. The trading volume was 276,902 lots, an increase of 22,870 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 760,649 lots, a decrease of 12,543 lots. For CY2507, the closing price was 18,920 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.08%, and the night - session closing price was 18,870 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.26%. The trading volume was 2,949 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 22,279 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. The closing price of ICE US cotton 07 was 67.56 cents/pound with a decline of 1.66% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 10,479, a decrease of 76 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 1,960, an increase of 22. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 10, unchanged from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 1, an increase of 10 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,028 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan from the previous day, a decline of 0.28%. The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 13,830 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan from the previous day, a decline of 0.29%. The price in Shandong was 14,314 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 0.20%. The price in Hebei was 14,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 0.23%. The 3128B index was 14,244 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 0.07%. The international cotton index M was 77.21 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.46% from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,490 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,402 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 0.25% [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 205 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan from the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot Situation**: The overall trading of domestic cotton spots was still weak. Some replenished stocks before the holiday. The sales basis of Nanjiang cotton was relatively weaker than that of Beijiang, and there were new low - basis spot goods locally. For example, the sales basis of 2024/25 Nanjiang Kashi machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3.5 was mostly at CF09 + 800 or above, and a small number of the same - quality low - price ones were at CF09 + 700 - 800, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. For 2024/25 Nanjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3, the sales basis was mostly at CF09 + 1300 - 1400 or above, and a small number of the same - quality low - price ones were around CF09 + 1250, for self - pick - up in the inland. For 2024/25 Beijiang local machine - picked 4129/29 - 30B with impurity between 3 - 3.5, some transaction bases were at CF09 + 950 - 1050, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises Situation**: The pure - cotton yarn market was generally weak, with poor trading. The market entered the off - season, and the order situation was not good. Spinning enterprises mostly negotiated for sales. Pure - cotton grey fabrics gradually entered the off - season, the market sentiment was weak, the shipment volume of regular varieties declined, and the inventory of weaving factories gradually increased. Currently, some weaving factories still had small orders to maintain production, but weaving factories in Shandong and Hebei said that it was difficult to get subsequent orders. Some weaving factories planned to have a holiday during the May Day [2]. - **US Cotton Situation**: ICE cotton fell yesterday due to the improvement of weather conditions in the main US cotton - producing areas. As of the week ending April 27, the US cotton planting rate was 15%, compared with 11% in the previous week, 14% in the same period last year, and the 5 - year average of 14% [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5].
建信期货棉花日报-20250424
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-04-23 23:55
Group 1: Report Overview - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: April 24, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Macro pressure eased, and Zhengzhou cotton rebounded slightly. The latest cotton price index for Grade 328 was 14,151 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Different regions had different cotton sales basis prices. [6][7] - The overall market of pure cotton yarn was average, with reduced new orders and low procurement enthusiasm. Cotton yarn prices were mainly falling. The pure cotton grey fabric market remained weak and stable, with few new orders and overall weak shipments. [8] - In the macro - aspect, the US attitude eased, and Trump mentioned a significant reduction in tariffs on China. Overseas, the US cotton planting progress was the same as the previous year, and the drought index was higher year - on - year. Domestically, the new cotton sowing progress was good overall, and downstream finished product inventories slightly increased. [8] Operation Suggestions - Due to the uncertainty in the market, it is advisable to pre - arrange to buy out - of - the - money put options to avoid the macro - uncertainty risks during the long holiday. [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of April 15, the drought degree and coverage index of the main US cotton - producing areas (93.0%) was 145, up 2 month - on - month and 90 year - on - year. The index in Texas was 232, up 3 month - on - month and 150 year - on - year. [9] - As of the week ending April 20, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 11%, the same as the previous year and the five - year average. [9] - As of April 21, 2025, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 50,800 tons, a 0.79% decrease from the previous week. Among them, bonded cotton was 46,300 tons, a 1.11% decrease, and non - bonded cotton was 4,400 tons, a 2.68% increase. [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including cotton price indices, futures prices, basis changes, inventory data, and exchange rate data, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. [16][18][20]