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棉花:期货价格震荡偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 02:04
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The futures price of cotton is fluctuating and showing a slightly stronger trend [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 14,030 yuan/ton with 0.00% daily increase and 14,155 yuan/ton in the night session with 0.89% increase; CY2511 closed at 20,060 yuan/ton with 0.00% daily increase and 20,180 yuan/ton in the night session; ICE US cotton 12 rose 0.79% to 68 cents/pound. For trading volume and open interest, CF2601 had 214,219 contracts traded with an increase of 16,126 from the previous day and an open interest of 727,579 contracts with a decrease of 6,325; CY2511 had 5,396 contracts traded with a decrease of 1,999 and an open interest of 21,958 contracts with an increase of 1,045 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: Zhengzhou cotton had 7,198 warehouse receipts with a decrease of 137 and 63 valid forecasts with a decrease of 125; cotton yarn had 64 warehouse receipts with a decrease of 5 and 0 valid forecasts with an increase of 69 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,272 yuan/ton with no change; Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,963 yuan/ton with no change; the price in Shandong was 15,243 yuan/ton with an increase of 35 (0.23%); in Hebei, it was 15,249 yuan/ton with an increase of 45 (0.30%); the 3128B index was 15,243 yuan/ton with an increase of 33 (0.22%); the international cotton index M was 74.95 cents/pound with a decrease of 0.24%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 20,720 yuan/ton with an increase of 20 (0.10%), and its arrival price was 22,053 yuan/ton with an increase of 18 (0.08%) [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 270 yuan/ton with a decrease of 10; the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,240 yuan/ton with no change [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading had partial good transactions. Southern Xinjiang cotton was mostly traded inland. The sales basis of inland warehouse cotton spot was stable, and the shipment was average. Spinning mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases. The mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 was CF09 + 1400 - 1550, inland self - pick; the mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang local machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5 was CF01+1300 and above, Xinjiang self - pick [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market was okay. Spinning mills' inventory continued to decline. Inland spinning mills had a cash - flow loss of about 500 yuan/ton, and the current production - restriction situation had no improvement. The pure - cotton grey fabric market was generally stable and weak, with limited market improvement. The downstream inquiry and transaction were average, and the inventory pressure of weaving factories slowly decreased [2]. - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures rose slightly, driven by the US interest - rate cut expectation [3]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4][5].
棉花:需求继续限制,郑棉期货反弹动能
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 02:02
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The demand continues to limit the rebound momentum of Zhengzhou cotton futures [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of CF2509 was 12,950 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.31%, and the night - session closing price was 12,880 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.54%. The trading volume was 276,902 lots, an increase of 22,870 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 760,649 lots, a decrease of 12,543 lots. For CY2507, the closing price was 18,920 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.08%, and the night - session closing price was 18,870 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.26%. The trading volume was 2,949 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 22,279 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. The closing price of ICE US cotton 07 was 67.56 cents/pound with a decline of 1.66% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 10,479, a decrease of 76 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 1,960, an increase of 22. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 10, unchanged from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 1, an increase of 10 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,028 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan from the previous day, a decline of 0.28%. The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 13,830 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan from the previous day, a decline of 0.29%. The price in Shandong was 14,314 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 0.20%. The price in Hebei was 14,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 0.23%. The 3128B index was 14,244 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 0.07%. The international cotton index M was 77.21 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.46% from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,490 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,402 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 0.25% [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 205 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan from the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot Situation**: The overall trading of domestic cotton spots was still weak. Some replenished stocks before the holiday. The sales basis of Nanjiang cotton was relatively weaker than that of Beijiang, and there were new low - basis spot goods locally. For example, the sales basis of 2024/25 Nanjiang Kashi machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3.5 was mostly at CF09 + 800 or above, and a small number of the same - quality low - price ones were at CF09 + 700 - 800, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. For 2024/25 Nanjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3, the sales basis was mostly at CF09 + 1300 - 1400 or above, and a small number of the same - quality low - price ones were around CF09 + 1250, for self - pick - up in the inland. For 2024/25 Beijiang local machine - picked 4129/29 - 30B with impurity between 3 - 3.5, some transaction bases were at CF09 + 950 - 1050, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises Situation**: The pure - cotton yarn market was generally weak, with poor trading. The market entered the off - season, and the order situation was not good. Spinning enterprises mostly negotiated for sales. Pure - cotton grey fabrics gradually entered the off - season, the market sentiment was weak, the shipment volume of regular varieties declined, and the inventory of weaving factories gradually increased. Currently, some weaving factories still had small orders to maintain production, but weaving factories in Shandong and Hebei said that it was difficult to get subsequent orders. Some weaving factories planned to have a holiday during the May Day [2]. - **US Cotton Situation**: ICE cotton fell yesterday due to the improvement of weather conditions in the main US cotton - producing areas. As of the week ending April 27, the US cotton planting rate was 15%, compared with 11% in the previous week, 14% in the same period last year, and the 5 - year average of 14% [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5].
建信期货棉花日报-20250424
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-04-23 23:55
Group 1: Report Overview - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: April 24, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Macro pressure eased, and Zhengzhou cotton rebounded slightly. The latest cotton price index for Grade 328 was 14,151 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Different regions had different cotton sales basis prices. [6][7] - The overall market of pure cotton yarn was average, with reduced new orders and low procurement enthusiasm. Cotton yarn prices were mainly falling. The pure cotton grey fabric market remained weak and stable, with few new orders and overall weak shipments. [8] - In the macro - aspect, the US attitude eased, and Trump mentioned a significant reduction in tariffs on China. Overseas, the US cotton planting progress was the same as the previous year, and the drought index was higher year - on - year. Domestically, the new cotton sowing progress was good overall, and downstream finished product inventories slightly increased. [8] Operation Suggestions - Due to the uncertainty in the market, it is advisable to pre - arrange to buy out - of - the - money put options to avoid the macro - uncertainty risks during the long holiday. [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of April 15, the drought degree and coverage index of the main US cotton - producing areas (93.0%) was 145, up 2 month - on - month and 90 year - on - year. The index in Texas was 232, up 3 month - on - month and 150 year - on - year. [9] - As of the week ending April 20, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 11%, the same as the previous year and the five - year average. [9] - As of April 21, 2025, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 50,800 tons, a 0.79% decrease from the previous week. Among them, bonded cotton was 46,300 tons, a 1.11% decrease, and non - bonded cotton was 4,400 tons, a 2.68% increase. [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including cotton price indices, futures prices, basis changes, inventory data, and exchange rate data, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. [16][18][20]