Core Viewpoint - Xtep's mid-year performance for 2025 shows record profits, but concerns arise from reliance on a single product line and the need for strategic growth beyond current capabilities [2][3][4] Financial Performance - Xtep's revenue from continuing operations increased by 7.1% to 6.838 billion yuan, with net profit rising by 21.5% to 914 million yuan, marking a historical high [2] - The operating profit grew by 9.1% to 1.305 billion yuan, indicating overall positive financial health [2] Brand Performance - The main brand's revenue growth was only 4.5%, reaching 6.053 billion yuan, a decline from previous growth rates of over 10% [5] - Saucony, positioned as the "second growth curve," achieved a 32.5% revenue increase to 785 million yuan, but this only accounts for 12% of total revenue [4][3] Strategic Initiatives - Xtep plans to invest 400 million yuan to open 400 Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) stores, aiming to enhance retail control despite potential short-term profit erosion [2][6] - The company has streamlined its brand portfolio, retaining only three brands: Xtep, Saucony, and Maile, after divesting K-Swiss and Palladium [3] Market Positioning - Xtep's focus remains on the mass consumer market in China, with a strong brand identity as the "first running brand in China" [5] - The company faces challenges in diversifying its product offerings beyond footwear, which may limit growth potential compared to competitors like Anta and Li Ning [5]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Xtep International (01368) is expected to benefit from the potential of Saucony, with projected sales and net profit compound annual growth rates (CAGR) of 7% and 13% respectively from 2025 to 2027 [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The group's earnings forecast for Xtep International has been raised by 1% to 3% for the period from 2025 to 2027 [1] - The target price for Xtep has been increased from HKD 5.6 to HKD 7.4, and the rating has been upgraded from "Neutral" to "Overweight" [1] Group 2: Saucony's Growth Potential - Saucony is expected to contribute approximately mid-double-digit sales growth by 2027, with operating profit growth projected to be mid to high double digits due to expanding operating profit margins [1] - The report is optimistic about Saucony's potential, forecasting nearly 30% sales CAGR over the next three years [1] Group 3: Retail Business Outlook - Xtep International's retail business is anticipated to improve in the second quarter, benefiting from the launch of signature products [1] - Despite intense competition, strong growth in the running product category is noted, although there are concerns about pricing pressure due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Xtep International (01368) is expected to benefit from the potential of Saucony, with projected sales and net profit compound annual growth rates (CAGR) of 7% and 13% respectively from 2025 to 2027 [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - Xtep's earnings forecast for 2025 to 2027 has been raised by 1% to 3% [1] - The target price for Xtep has been increased from HKD 5.6 to HKD 7.4 [1] - The rating for Xtep has been upgraded from "Neutral" to "Overweight" [1] Group 2: Saucony's Contribution - Saucony is expected to contribute approximately mid-double-digit sales growth by 2027 [1] - Operating profit growth from Saucony is anticipated to be mid to high double digits by 2027 [1] - The report is optimistic about Saucony's potential, forecasting nearly 30% sales CAGR over the next three years [1] Group 3: Retail Business Outlook - Xtep's retail business is expected to improve in Q2, benefiting from the launch of signature products [1] - Despite intense competition, strong growth in the running product category is noted [1] - There are concerns regarding macroeconomic uncertainties and pricing pressures [1]

Core Insights - The company reported a 7% revenue growth in the first half of the year, with a net profit increase of 22% driven by improved profitability in ongoing operations and reduced losses from the divestment of KP [1] - For the first half of 2025, revenue grew by 7.1% year-on-year to 6.84 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 21.5% to 910 million yuan [1] - The main brand showed steady revenue growth, while the professional sports brands experienced rapid growth [2] Brand Performance - The main brand, Xtep, saw a 4.5% year-on-year revenue increase to 6.05 billion yuan, with e-commerce channel revenue growing in double digits and accounting for over 30% of total revenue [2] - The children's business outperformed the adult segment, although the overall gross margin slightly decreased by 0.3% due to lower margins in children's products and online discounting [2] - The professional sports segment, including Saucony and Myle, achieved a 32.5% revenue growth to 790 million yuan, primarily driven by Saucony [2] Profitability and Margins - The gross margin for the professional sports segment decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 55.2%, attributed to a higher proportion of lower-margin lifestyle and OG categories [2] - Operating profit for the professional sports segment nearly tripled to 79 million yuan, with an operating profit margin increase of 6.1 percentage points to 10% [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is deepening channel management and advancing a Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) strategy, planning to open 100-200 DTC stores by 2025 and a total of 300-400 by 2026, with a capital expenditure of approximately 400 million yuan [2] - Short-term impacts on revenue and profit margins are expected from the DTC transformation, but it is seen as beneficial for long-term growth and performance enhancement [2] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.18 Hong Kong cents per share, maintaining a payout ratio of 50%, and has consistently maintained a payout ratio of over 50% for 17 consecutive years [1]

Group 1 - Company experienced an 8.3% year-on-year decline in revenue, totaling 9.16 billion RMB, due to fluctuating store traffic and increased discounts [1] - Gross margin decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 33.5%, while net profit fell by 44% year-on-year to 190 million RMB, resulting in a net profit margin of 2.1% [1] - Inventory levels remained healthy, with inventory days at 146, below the target of 150 days, and old inventory accounting for less than 9% [1] Group 2 - Online sales showed robust growth of 16%, with live streaming sales exceeding 100% growth, contributing to 33% of total revenue [2] - The company maintained its offline store count at 3,408, with a net closure of 40 stores, while same-store sales declined by 10% to 20% [2] - The company plans to optimize its product mix and develop proprietary brands, with short-term revenue contribution from these brands at only 2-3% [2]

Core Insights - Xtep International reported operational data for Q2 and the first half of 2025, meeting expectations with low single-digit year-on-year growth in Q2 and mid single-digit growth in the first half [1] - The children's segment outpaced the adult segment, with footwear performing better than apparel, driven by functional running and outdoor products [1] - Saucony achieved over 20% growth in Q2 and over 30% growth in the first half, with a clear brand positioning focused on elite runners and high-performance products [1][2] Brand Performance - The new brands Saucony and Maile maintained rapid growth, with Saucony projecting 30-40% growth for the full year [2] - Saucony is strategically reducing low-priced products online and tightening discounts while expanding its presence in core cities with new store formats [2] - Maile's sales trends are strong, with over 50% growth in both Q2 and the first half, primarily driven by e-commerce [2] Inventory and Financial Health - The inventory level remains healthy, with a sell-through ratio of approximately 4 to 4.5 months at the end of Q2, and discount rates stable at 30-35% [2] - The company expects gross margins to meet expectations, with marketing and R&D expenses within budget, indicating stable operating profit margins [2] Channel Performance - Online sales growth outpaced offline, with direct-to-consumer (DTC) initiatives progressing well, involving around 500 stores transitioning from franchise to self-operated [3] - The DTC transformation is expected to enhance market responsiveness and long-term competitiveness, with plans to open larger stores and introduce new store formats [3] Product Category Insights - Core running products performed well, achieving double-digit growth, while leisure products showed some volatility [3][4] - The company has optimized its multi-brand matrix by divesting from fashion sports brands and focusing on core running business, which is expected to strengthen its market position [4] Future Outlook - The company maintains a "buy" rating and profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 1.37 billion, 1.50 billion, and 1.63 billion for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 10, 9, and 8 [4] - The focus on the running segment post-divestment is anticipated to enhance brand synergy and future growth prospects [4]

Group 1 - The company announced Q2 2025 operational data, indicating a low single-digit year-on-year growth in main brand retail revenue, with discounts ranging from 70% to 75% [1] - In H1 2025, the main brand retail revenue achieved mid-single-digit year-on-year growth, while Saucony's retail sales exceeded 30% growth [1] - The Q2 2025 retail revenue growth for Saucony was over 20%, but the growth rate slowed by approximately 40% compared to Q1 2025, attributed to adjustments in the e-commerce strategy [1] Group 2 - The company is focusing on a direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategy, which may have short-term negative impacts on sales but is expected to enhance consumer interaction and brand loyalty in the long run [2] - Saucony plans to expand its product matrix and open around 30 new stores in high-end markets after acquiring full rights to Saucony and Merrell, which is expected to improve gross margins [2] - The sale of the KP brand is aimed at reducing financial drag and focusing on three main brands, with revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 set at 14.286 billion, 15.558 billion, and 17.251 billion yuan respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The sportswear industry in Hong Kong is facing significant challenges in the second quarter of 2025, with major domestic brands experiencing a slowdown in growth due to weak consumer demand, inventory pressure, and intense price competition [2][10]. Group 1: Performance of Major Brands - Anta, Li Ning, 361 Degrees, and Xtep have all reported weakened performance in Q2 compared to Q1, with Anta and Xtep experiencing low single-digit growth [3][5]. - Anta's retail sales for its main brand showed low single-digit positive growth, while its FILA brand recorded mid-single-digit growth, both of which are slower than the high single-digit growth seen in Q1 [3][4]. - Li Ning's retail sales saw a decline in offline channels, with overall sales growth falling below expectations, indicating a challenging recovery trend [5][9]. Group 2: Market Environment - The overall consumer environment for the sportswear industry is under pressure, with a decline in transaction rates and average spending per customer, attributed to weakened consumer purchasing intent [6][7]. - In June 2025, the retail sales growth for clothing, shoes, and textiles was only 1.9%, a significant drop from previous months, highlighting the industry's struggles [8][7]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competition among domestic sports brands is intensifying, with international brands like Nike and Adidas increasing promotional efforts, leading to deeper discounting strategies among local brands [9][10]. - The industry is shifting focus towards outdoor segments, with brands like Anta and Li Ning making strides in high-end outdoor products, which offer higher profit margins compared to traditional sportswear [9][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the sales momentum for major sportswear companies will remain weak until at least Q2 to Q3 of 2025, primarily due to sluggish sales in lower-tier cities and increased competition [8][9]. - Despite the challenges, there are opportunities in niche outdoor markets, which are becoming a new growth area for brands looking to enhance product value [11].

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities maintains a positive outlook on Xtep International's (01368) competitive strength in the main brand running shoes sector, with a target price of HKD 6.45 for 2025, reflecting a lower-than-industry-average PE of 12X [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The main brand's Q1 revenue showed single-digit growth year-on-year, with discounts remaining stable at 7-7.5%, and an inventory-to-sales ratio of approximately 4 months, indicating a healthy balance [2] - Xtep's Q1 functional running shoes sales demonstrated double-digit growth, showcasing the company's competitive edge in the running shoe market [3] Group 2: Brand Development and Strategy - The DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) reform is progressing as planned, with expectations to recover 400-500 stores by 2026, which may have a slight short-term impact on 2025 profits but is expected to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience in the long term [3] - Saucony's Q1 revenue increased by over 40% year-on-year, with a growth guidance of 30-40% for 2025, and plans to open 30 new stores, primarily in high-tier markets [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year growth in retail sales for its main brand in Q1 2025, with a discount range of 70% to 75% and channel inventory at approximately four months [2][3] - Saucony, a brand under the company, achieved about 40% year-on-year growth in retail sales in Q1 2025, benefiting from its strong performance in professional running and outdoor segments [2][3] Summary by Sections Event Overview - The company announced its Q1 2025 operational data, highlighting a year-on-year increase in retail sales for its main brand, with discounts maintained at 70% to 75% and channel inventory around four months [2] Analysis and Judgment - In Q1 2025, the retail sales growth rate for the main brand showed a decline compared to Q4 2024, but the discount levels remained stable [3] - The company’s retail discount rates were consistent across quarters, with channel inventory turnover slightly improving compared to the previous year [3] - Saucony's growth is attributed to its strategic positioning in high-end markets and its brand promotion efforts, including celebrity endorsements and product innovation [3] Investment Recommendations - Short-term investments in the main brand's DTC strategy may negatively impact sales but are expected to enhance consumer interaction and brand loyalty in the long run [4] - The company plans to expand its product range and open approximately 30 new Saucony stores in high-end markets [4] - The financial forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 predict revenues of 142.86 billion, 155.58 billion, and 172.51 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 13.74 billion, 15.11 billion, and 16.64 billion [4]