2月25日，化工ETF国泰（516220）收涨近2%，2026年供需逆转可期 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 天风证券指出，化工行业新增产能进入释放阶段，2026年供需逆转可期。行业已经进入历史底部区域， 多数化工品当前阶段盈利低迷，大部分化工品价格仍位于历史较低分位。供给端在行业供需调整中权重 加大，在内需增速趋缓、出口面临不确定性的背景下，"反内卷"的提出提供了对后续行业盈利改善的预 期。短期内可通过控制开工方式调整供需平衡促进价格回暖、盈利修复；中长期则关注关停低效产能的 落实节奏，促进企业技术升级摆脱同质化竞争。随着PPI逐步进入周期低点，在系列政策助推下，2026- 2027年经济走出谷底、企业盈利底部确认的概率较高。 化工ETF国泰（516220）跟踪的是细分化工指数（000813），该指数主要覆盖化学制品、化学原料、化 学纤维等领域的上市公司。指数旨在反映化工行业内具有代表性的企业整体表现，侧重于具备较高成长 性和市场竞争力的公司。行业配置上聚焦于基础化工及相关产业链，以体现化工行业的多样性和发展动 态。 ...

Group 1 - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery, with specific sectors such as dyes, PVA, and vitamins showing signs of improvement, as indicated by a 2.2% increase in the Guotai Chemical ETF (516220) on February 11 [1] - Leading dye companies have raised prices due to tight supply of core intermediates, while PVA prices are increasing due to higher export orders following extreme weather affecting overseas facilities [1] - Vitamin prices are also rising as major manufacturers plan production halts for maintenance and increase their quotes, leading to tighter supply expectations post-holiday [1] Group 2 - The Guotai Chemical ETF (516220) tracks a specialized chemical index (000813) that includes listed companies from various sectors such as fertilizers, pesticides, and coatings, reflecting the overall performance of high-growth and specialized chemical enterprises [1] - The index focuses on specific chemical products and technologies, aiming to highlight structural opportunities within the chemical industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" measures are expected to catalyze the recovery of profit bottoms in the basic chemical and chemical products industry, with a positive outlook for 2026 [1] Industry Summary - The current round of capacity expansion in the basic chemical and chemical products industry is nearing its end, and "anti-involution" measures are anticipated to stimulate a recovery in industry profits [1] - The new materials sector is benefiting from rapid downstream demand growth, which is likely to initiate a new phase of high growth [1] - Traditional chemical leaders are demonstrating operational resilience and are enhancing their competitive capabilities by expanding into new materials and other fields, which may lead to improvements in both performance and valuation amid a recovering industry environment [1] Sub-industry Focus - Continuous catalysts such as "anti-involution" should be monitored in sub-industries with improving supply-demand dynamics, including refining, polyester, dyes, organic silicon, pesticides, refrigerants, and phosphorus chemicals [1] - The rapid development of downstream industries provides significant growth opportunities for companies in the new materials sector [1] ETF Information - The Cathay Chemical ETF (516220) tracks a specific sub-sector index (000813) focused on the chemical industry, covering high-value-added products such as fine chemicals and new materials, and selects relevant listed companies to reflect the overall performance of this sub-sector [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese chemical industry is expected to enter a favorable upcycle due to the acceleration of capacity exit in Europe and the implementation of anti-involution measures in China [1] - The anti-involution measures are anticipated to lead to a significant slowdown in global chemical industry capacity expansion, which will enhance the potential dividend yield for Chinese chemical companies [1] - Chinese chemical companies are characterized by strong operating cash flow, which positions them to transition from cash-consuming entities to cash-generating ones as expansion slows [1] Group 2 - The supply-side changes are expected to halt the decline in industry prosperity, with chemical stocks likely to exhibit both high elasticity and high dividend advantages [1] - Globally, leading Chinese chemical companies have established solid cost and efficiency advantages, entering a long-term upward performance phase [1] - Certain supply-constrained sectors are projected to see continued improvement in industry prosperity as demand rebounds, making them worthy of attention [1] Group 3 - The Guotai Chemical ETF (516220) tracks a sub-index of the chemical sector (000813), which includes representative listed companies in chemical products and fibers to reflect the overall performance of fine chemicals and new materials [1]

Group 1 - The basic chemical industry is undergoing profound changes characterized by "supply-demand reversal, value reassessment, and industrial restructuring" [1] - By 2025, a turning point in policy and capital expenditure is anticipated, with the concept of "anti-involution" providing expectations for future industry profit improvement and long-term healthy development [1] - The restructuring of supply-demand patterns and the upgrading of industrial attributes are driving the value reassessment of traditional chemical enterprises [1] Group 2 - The chemical industry is entering a strategic window period, with high-cost marginal production capacity exiting overseas, leading to a restructuring of the global chemical order [1] - Recent market performance indicates a rise in the organic silicon market, with increased enthusiasm for downstream stocking, and some companies extending order production schedules to February [1] - The epoxy propane market is also performing strongly due to supply tightness, cost support, and demand during the policy window period [1] Group 3 - The chemical leader ETF (516220) tracks a specific chemical index (000813), which selects listed company securities from the fine chemicals and new materials sectors to reflect the overall performance of related listed companies [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the rapid growth in the supply of spandex is intensifying competition, leading to expectations of the exit of underperforming capacities, with some capacity expected to be eliminated [1] - The current phase of industry capacity expansion is nearing its end, with future new capacities concentrated in leading enterprises, optimizing the supply structure towards competitive advantages [1] - Downstream demand is expected to gradually recover, with spandex consumption growth rate anticipated to increase year-on-year by 2026, supported by a phase of easing trade relations between China and the U.S. and a new round of inventory replenishment in the domestic and international textile and apparel sectors [1] - Product prices and corporate profitability are expected to achieve year-on-year recovery [1] Group 2 - The chemical leader ETF (516220) tracks a specific chemical index (000813), which selects listed companies from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets involved in chemical raw materials, fertilizers and pesticides, coatings, inks, and pigments to reflect the overall performance of related listed companies in specific sub-sectors of the chemical industry [1]

Group 1 - The polyester industry chain is strengthening overall, with PX prices rising due to high demand for toluene/xylene and gasoline, leading to tighter PX supply [1] - PTA production is declining due to unexpected shutdowns and reduced operating rates, supporting the supply side [1] - The polyester filament industry is implementing self-discipline to reduce production and maintain prices, resulting in significant inventory reduction [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to address "involution" competition by 2026, aiming to curb low-price and low-quality competition, which is expected to further optimize the supply-demand structure in the chemical industry [1] - The chemical sector ETF (516220) tracks a specialized chemical index (000813) that focuses on high-growth and innovative chemical enterprises, reflecting the overall performance of the industry [1]

Core Insights - China places significant emphasis on the development of the chemical industry, being the world's highest in chemical capital intensity and the largest in chemical R&D investment [1] - In 2023, China's chemical capital expenditure and R&D expenses accounted for 43% and 32% of the global total, respectively, indicating a strong leading position [1] - High levels of capital investment are driving the enhancement of chemical production capacity, strengthening economies of scale, and deepening industry chain collaboration, which is gradually establishing a solid cost moat for China's chemical industry and reshaping the global competitive landscape [1] Industry Overview - The Chemical Leaders ETF (516220) tracks a specialized chemical index (000813) that focuses on sub-sectors within China's chemical industry [1] - This index includes key segments such as chemical raw materials, fertilizers and pesticides, and coatings, inks, and pigments [1] - The index selects representative listed companies within the industry as constituent stocks to reflect the overall performance and market trends of related listed companies in the chemical sub-sectors [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the ongoing "anti-involution" policies that are driving the elimination of outdated production capacity, which in turn is contributing to a narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year [1] - The cyclical layout suggests focusing on sectors such as the textile and apparel chain, agricultural chemicals chain, export chain, and areas benefiting from "anti-involution" [1] - The agricultural chemicals chain shows stable demand, supported by an increase in cultivated land area for fertilizers and the rising penetration rate of genetically modified crops for pesticides [1] Group 2 - On the macroeconomic front, expectations of improved supply-demand dynamics in crude oil are strengthening the bottom support for oil prices, while coal prices are expected to oscillate at a long-term bottom, and natural gas import costs may decline [1] - The chemical leader ETF (516220) tracks a specific chemical index (000813), which selects listed companies from various sub-sectors such as chemical products, chemical fibers, fertilizers, and pesticides to reflect the overall performance of the chemical industry [1] - This index is characterized by high industry concentration and representativeness, providing an effective reference tool for investors interested in the dynamics of the chemical industry [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the basic chemical industry is expected to undergo structural optimization on the supply side due to domestic policies emphasizing "anti-involution" and overseas raw material cost increases leading to shutdowns and capacity exits in European and American chemical companies [1] - Short-term geopolitical tensions are increasing uncertainty in overseas supply, while in the long term, China is leveraging its cost advantages and technological strength to fill gaps in the international supply chain, potentially reshaping the global chemical landscape [1] - The chemical leader ETF (516220) tracks a segmented chemical index (000813), which selects high-quality securities from sub-industries such as fertilizers, pesticides, coatings, and plastics to reflect the overall performance and trends of related listed companies in the chemical industry [1] Group 2 - The segmented chemical index components have strong market representativeness, providing important references for investors focusing on investment opportunities in the chemical industry [1]