每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 申万宏源证券指出，行业政策方面，"反内卷"持续加码推动落后产能出清，同时重点行业产能治理 带动PPI同比降幅收窄。周期布局建议关注纺服链、农化链、出口链及"反内卷"受益领域，其中农化链 需求稳健，化肥端受耕种面积扩大支撑，农药受益转基因渗透率提升。宏观层面，原油供需格局改善预 期下油价底部支撑强化，煤炭价格中长期底部震荡，天然气进口成本或下行。 化工龙头ETF（516220）跟踪的是细分化工指数（000813），该指数从市场中选取涉及化学制品、 化学纤维、化肥与农药等细分领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映化工行业各细分市场的整体表 现。该指数具有较高的行业集中度和代表性，为关注化工行业发展动态的投资者提供了有效的参考工 具。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不 预示 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing "anti-involution" policy is driving the elimination of outdated production capacity, leading to a narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year [1] Industry Policy - The "anti-involution" initiative is promoting the clearance of outdated production capacity, which is positively impacting the PPI [1] - Key industry capacity governance is contributing to the improved PPI performance [1] Sector Focus - Investment recommendations include focusing on the textile and apparel chain, agricultural chemical chain, export chain, and sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" policy [1] - The agricultural chemical chain shows stable demand, supported by an increase in cultivated area for fertilizers and a rise in pesticide usage due to the penetration of genetically modified crops [1] Macroeconomic Outlook - Expectations of improved supply-demand dynamics in crude oil are strengthening the bottom support for oil prices [1] - Coal prices are expected to experience long-term bottom fluctuations [1] - The cost of natural gas imports may decline [1] Chemical Industry Index - The chemical sector ETF (516220) tracks a specialized chemical index (000813), which selects listed companies involved in chemical products, chemical fibers, fertilizers, and pesticides [1] - This index reflects the overall performance of various sub-markets within the chemical industry and has high industry concentration and representativeness [1] - It serves as an effective reference tool for investors monitoring developments in the chemical industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Nongfa Seed Industry, is facing a decline in gross profit margin and net profit attributable to shareholders, primarily due to the poor performance of its pesticide business and changes in revenue composition [1][2]. Summary by Sections Gross Profit Margin and Net Profit Changes - The company's gross profit margins for the reporting periods were 10.51%, 8.19%, 7.46%, and 6.18% respectively, while net profits attributable to shareholders were 230.072 million, 127.014 million, 46.887 million, and 63.038 million [1]. - The decline in gross profit margin from 2022 to 2024 was mainly influenced by the pesticide business, which saw its gross profit margin drop from 31.73% to 3.72%, with its revenue share decreasing from 16.64% to 5.94% [1]. Fertilizer Business Performance - The revenue from the fertilizer business for the reporting periods was 2,475.5804 million, 3,972.0236 million, 3,169.2437 million, and 2,248.9562 million [2]. - In 2023, the fertilizer business revenue increased by 60.45% year-on-year, driven by a significant drop in potash import contract prices from $590 per ton in 2022 to $307 per ton, which boosted market demand [2]. - The revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2025 is attributed to the expectation of price increases following Belarus's proposal to jointly reduce potash production with Russia by 10%-11%, prompting the company to increase procurement to meet spring farming needs [2].

Core Insights - Sichuan Meifeng reported a third-quarter revenue of 858 million, a year-on-year decline of 3.44% [1] - The net profit for the third quarter was a loss of 15.32 million, representing a decline of 166.57% [1] - For the first three quarters, the revenue totaled 2.717 billion, down 5.27% year-on-year [1] - The net profit for the first three quarters was a loss of 7.29 million, a decrease of 103.85% [1]

Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 9.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.91% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.15 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 22.71% [3] - Operating cash flow reached 9.9 billion yuan, up by 22.74% [3] - In Q3, revenue was 2.08 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 35.36% [3] Business Segment Analysis - The compound fertilizer segment faced a decline in sales volume due to extreme weather, with Q3 sales down to 60%-70% of the previous year's levels [7] - The phosphate chemical segment showed significant growth, with production levels exceeding last year's figures, particularly in the Hebei and Hubei regions [3] - The gardening business saw a retail growth of 83.5% year-on-year, indicating strong market demand despite its smaller revenue share [4] Market Conditions and Pricing - The prices of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizers are expected to remain stable with limited fluctuations [9] - The phosphate market is under pressure due to rising sulfur prices, which have led to price inversions for certain products [9] - The industry is expected to undergo consolidation, with smaller firms likely to exit the market, enhancing the competitive position of larger companies [10] Future Outlook - The company anticipates potential profitability in Q4 if operational stability is maintained and raw material prices stabilize [4] - Growth opportunities are identified in the existing phosphate chemical segment and emerging gardening business, with a focus on market expansion in regions like Xinjiang [13] - The introduction of new phosphate mining capacity in 2026-2027 may lead to a decrease in phosphate rock prices, impacting profit margins for companies with less resource control [11]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the **potash fertilizer**, **phosphate chemical**, and **pesticide** industries, highlighting their current conditions and future outlooks. Key Points on Potash Fertilizer Industry - Global potash supply is limited, with only **3 million tons** of new capacity expected from **Asia Potash International** [1] - High prices of phosphate and nitrogen fertilizers are driving increased demand for potash, with a projected apparent growth rate of **3-4%** in demand from **2025 to 2026** [2] - Domestic potash inventory has risen but remains significantly below historical highs, with current port inventory at **180-190 thousand tons**, compared to **400 thousand tons** in previous years [2] - Anticipated price increases for domestic potash before spring planting due to tight supply and demand dynamics [2][4] - The **Q3** supply-demand balance remains tight, with a forecasted demand of **75 million tons** globally by **2025**, growing at **2-3%** annually [2] Key Points on Phosphate Chemical Industry - The core of the phosphate chemical sector is **phosphate rock**, which maintains a high level of market activity [5] - The lithium battery supply chain is experiencing an upward trend, with **lithium hexafluorophosphate** prices rising to over **60,000 yuan/ton**, a **9%** increase [5] - Phosphate rock prices are supported by rigid supply, with a long-term price center expected to remain high due to resource scarcity [5][6] - Production costs for monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate have increased due to rising sulfur and ammonia prices [5] - The demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries in the electric vehicle sector is significant, with **75%** of power battery sales attributed to this type [6] Key Points on Pesticide Industry - China is the world's largest pesticide exporter, with **80-90%** of production aimed at export markets [7] - The peak export seasons are from **June to August** for South America and from **November to January** for the Northern Hemisphere [7] - In **2025**, China's pesticide exports are expected to reach a record high, with exports to Brazil increasing by over **40%** [7] - Significant price increases have been observed in certain pesticide varieties, including **glyphosate**, which rose from **23,000 yuan** to **27,700 yuan** [8] - The opening rate for **glufosinate** has exceeded **90%**, with expectations of price increases in the coming months [9][10] Additional Insights - The demand for herbicides is expected to drive price increases in the upcoming months, particularly in November and December [10] - New pesticide products are anticipated to receive registration by December, potentially benefiting companies like **Yangnong Chemical** and **Jiangshan Co.** [10][11] - The overall trend in the Chinese agricultural chemical industry is positive, driven by strong demand and supply-side disruptions leading to price increases [12]

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of approximately 14.49 billion in its semi-annual report, with a significant portion coming from various chemical products [2] - For the first half of 2025, the company anticipates achieving a revenue of around 120 billion, primarily from phosphate fertilizers, urea, and other chemical products, as well as coal products [2]

Core Insights - On September 24, Yuntu Holdings experienced a stock price increase of 3.23%, with a trading volume of 184 million yuan [1] - The company reported a financing buy-in of 16.93 million yuan and a financing repayment of 25.69 million yuan on the same day, resulting in a net financing outflow of 8.75 million yuan [1] - As of September 24, the total margin balance for Yuntu Holdings was 369 million yuan, with a financing balance of 368 million yuan, representing 2.98% of the circulating market value [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Yuntu Holdings achieved an operating revenue of 11.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.59% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period was 511 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 12.60% [2] Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Yuntu Holdings was 49,700, a decrease of 14.42% from the previous period [2] - The average circulating shares per person increased by 16.60% to 17,747 shares [2] - Since its A-share listing, Yuntu Holdings has distributed a total of 2.352 billion yuan in dividends, with 845 million yuan distributed in the last three years [3]

Group 1 - The supply side is expected to undergo structural optimization, with domestic policies frequently mentioning "anti-involution" and overseas chemical companies in Europe and America shutting down or exiting capacity due to rising raw material costs and Asian production impacts [1] - Short-term geopolitical tensions are increasing uncertainty in overseas supply, while China is expected to reshape the global chemical landscape in the long term due to its cost and technological advantages [1] - Key sectors to focus on include organic silicon, membrane materials, chlor-alkali, and dyes, as well as leading companies in coal chemical, fluorinated refrigerants, and pesticides [1] Group 2 - The three generations of refrigerants are experiencing price increases due to quota restrictions and rising demand, with significant price increases for R32, R134a, and R125 within the year, leading to substantial profit growth for related companies [1] - The demand for health additives and sugar substitutes is rising under new consumption trends, indicating a potential recovery in the food additives industry [1] - The self-sufficiency rate of new chemical materials is approximately 56%, with accelerated domestic substitution creating development opportunities in areas such as photoresists and high-end engineering plastics [1] Group 3 - The chemical leader ETF (516220) tracks a specialized chemical index (000813) that focuses on sub-sectors within the Chinese chemical industry, including specialty chemicals, fertilizers, and pesticides, reflecting the overall performance of high-growth and technologically advanced chemical companies [1] - The index components are primarily companies with leading advantages in specific chemical products or technologies, emphasizing new materials and fine chemicals, which showcase the innovation and development dynamics of the chemical industry [1]

Group 1 - The eighth China Farmers' Harvest Festival was celebrated on September 23, focusing on "Celebrating Agricultural Harvest and Enjoying a Better Life" [1] - Various oil and chemical companies have strengthened the production and supply of agricultural materials such as fertilizers, pesticides, and agricultural films to ensure market stability and support crop yield [1] - Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co., Ltd. adjusted its production structure to increase the output of fertilizers like urea and ammonium sulfate to meet local agricultural needs [1] Group 2 - Hubei Xiangyun (Group) Chemical Co., Ltd. launched innovative fertilizers, including astaxanthin-based fertilizers that can enhance saline-alkali land productivity by 30% [2] - Jinzhengda promotes green and efficient fertilizers, developing over 600 crop-specific solutions for various crops [2] - Xinlianxin Group focuses on developing high-efficiency products, achieving a fertilizer utilization rate of over 43.8% compared to the 35% of ordinary urea [2] Group 3 - Luxi Group increased the variety of fertilizers produced to meet the diverse needs of different crops and regions, supporting the development of high-efficiency fertilizers [3] - Hubei Yihua is committed to ensuring sufficient supply and stable prices of fertilizers while innovating products to meet diverse agricultural needs [3] - Limin Co. and Tianhe Co. launched a "Rice Flying Defense Plan" to combat common rice pests and diseases, ensuring healthy crop growth [3] Group 4 - China Coal Ordos Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. provided 2,500 tons of affordable fertilizers to support farmers during the critical agricultural production period [4] - Jinneng Holding Group adjusted its product structure to ensure stable and sufficient fertilizer supply during the harvest season [4] - Yuntianhua adheres to a management philosophy that ensures production facilities operate at full capacity during key agricultural periods [5] Group 5 - Tianye Group enhances modern agricultural technology, focusing on water-saving agriculture and improving crop yields through innovative techniques [5] - Zhushang Fertilizer (China) Group offers comprehensive services from soil testing to planting guidance, helping farmers optimize fertilizer use [5] - The company has developed various brands of fertilizers that improve soil quality and enhance crop resistance, benefiting millions of farmers [5]