国泰君安期货·能源化工 纸浆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年8月3日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情数据 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 行情走势 基差与月差 现货价格 供给 库存 需求 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 02 行情走势 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 资料来源：隆众资讯 1. 【常熟港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年7月31日，中国纸浆常熟港库存51.4万吨，较上周期下降6.2万吨，环比下降10.8%。本周常熟港库存呈现去库走势。 2. 【青岛港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年7月31日，中国青岛港港内及港外仓库纸浆库存140.5万吨，较上周上涨4.3万吨，环比上涨3.2%。本周期青岛港库存 周期内呈现累库的走势。 3. 【高栏港纸浆库存统计】截至20 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The pulp market is expected to remain in a state of oscillatory consolidation and weak operation in the near term. The cost - side foreign market quotations are stable, and the new round of the outer - market price of Brazilian eucalyptus pulp "Bird" remains unchanged. The increase in Brazilian eucalyptus pulp exports to China in May may lead to a significant increase in arrivals around July. The downstream demand remains weak, and the port inventory is difficult to deplete at a high level, which restricts the upward space of pulp prices. However, due to the low - level pulp futures prices in recent years, traders' sentiment of reluctance to sell at low prices is strong, so the subsequent deep - decline space is also limited [77]. Summary by Directory Industry News - As of June 12, 2025, the inventory of pulp in Changshu Port was 581,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,000 tons (5.3%); in Qingdao Port, it was 1.342 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,000 tons (1.2%); in Gaolan Port, it was 152,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,000 tons (3.8%). The total inventory of mainstream ports in China was 2.185 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,000 tons (1.3%) [6]. - Rizhao Huatai Paper Co., Ltd. has an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons of fluff pulp, and the 500,000 - ton fluff pulp project is a future planning project and has not started construction yet [6]. - Finnpulp's Joutseno NBSK pulp mill will be shut down temporarily starting from June 9 to adjust inventory levels and match production with low orders in Asia [6]. Market Data Market Trends - The price of the main pulp futures contract first rose and then fell. Some spot traders were reluctant to sell at low prices. Constrained by weak demand, there were few actual transactions for high - priced goods. The price of softwood pulp fluctuated within a range during the week [36]. Basis and Spread - On June 13, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 858 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.38% and a year - on - year increase of 125.79%; the basis of Russian Needle was 58 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 17.14% and a year - on - year increase of 182.86%; the spread between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 800 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 77.78% [14]. - On June 13, 2025, the 07 - 09 spread was 44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 21.43%; the 07 - 11 spread was 116 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.75% [19]. Fundamental Data Price - The difference between softwood and hardwood pulp decreased. On June 13, 2025, the spread between Silver Star and Goldfish was 2,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 207.69%; the spread between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 1,200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.44% and a year - on - year increase of 500% [27]. - The import profit of Silver Star was positive recently but continued to decline this week. There was no quotation for eucalyptus pulp "Star" in June, and the supply is expected to partially resume in July [32]. - On June 13, 2025, the prices of Silver Star, Cariboo, Northern Wood, Lion Brand, and Russian Needle were 6,100 yuan/ton, 6,200 yuan/ton, 6,350 yuan/ton, 6,200 yuan/ton, and 5,300 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 0.81%, 0.80%, 0.78%, 0.80%, and 0.93% [34]. - Traders of imported eucalyptus pulp were under great cost pressure and were reluctant to sell at low prices. Some eucalyptus pulp brands' quotations increased slightly, but the downstream market's inquiry was only for low - price products, and the trading rhythm was slow, which limited the price rebound space [40]. - On June 13, 2025, the prices of Goldfish, Star, Bird, and Broadleaf were 4,100 yuan/ton, with month - on - month changes of - 0.49%, 0.00%, 0.00%, and 0.00% respectively [41]. - On June 13, 2025, the prices of Venus and Kunhe were 5,000 yuan/ton and 3,900 yuan/ton respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.91% for Venus and no change for Kunhe [45]. Supply - In April 2025, the European port inventory decreased month - on - month, and the global pulp out - port volume decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The European port inventory was 1.352 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.77% and a year - on - year increase of 16.75%; the global pulp out - port volume was 4.077 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.30% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.89% [48][49]. - In April 2025, the pulp import volume decreased to varying degrees. The import volume of softwood pulp decreased by 5.03% month - on - month, and that of eucalyptus pulp decreased by 18.41% month - on - month [51]. Demand - On June 13, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of white cardboard, household tissue paper, offset paper, and coated paper were 73.41%, 63.40%, 56.37%, and 56.18% respectively. The capacity utilization rate of household tissue paper increased slightly due to the "618" promotion, while that of other paper types decreased or remained at a low level [54]. - The market price of white cardboard remained stable. The supply was loose, and the terminal consumption was weak. The downstream customers' enthusiasm for stocking decreased, and they mainly received previous orders and replenished stocks on a just - in - time basis [56]. - The market price of household tissue paper was slightly adjusted. Some paper mills that had shut down for maintenance had not resumed production. The market was quiet, and traders were waiting and watching. Some regions' sales increased due to the "618" promotion, and the paper mills' operating rates increased slightly [60]. - The average price of coated paper enterprises decreased. The supply pressure was controllable, but the consumption demand was weak, and the industry was in a situation of weak supply and demand [60]. Inventory - On June 13, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in warehouses was 238,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 49.96%; the warehouse receipt quantity in factories was 16,300 tons, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 51.14% [65]. - The port inventory was at a high level within the year, and the inventory of mainstream ports in China showed an increasing trend this period. The inventory in Qingdao Port and Changshu Port increased, while that in Gaolan Port decreased [71]. Operation Suggestions - The pulp market is expected to oscillate and consolidate, with a weak operation trend. The cost - side foreign market quotations are stable, and the increase in Brazilian eucalyptus pulp exports to China in May may lead to more arrivals around July. The downstream demand is weak, and the port inventory is difficult to deplete at a high level, which restricts the upward space of pulp prices. However, due to traders' reluctance to sell at low prices, the subsequent deep - decline space is also limited [77].

Summary of the Conference Call on the Pulp Industry Industry Overview - The global fluff pulp industry is highly concentrated in North America and Northern Europe, with the top five manufacturers holding a dominant position, including International Paper (IP) and Georgia-Pacific (GP), which together account for nearly 60%-70% of global capacity [1][3] - China heavily relies on imports for fluff pulp, with demand significantly exceeding domestic supply, particularly dependent on imports from the U.S. [1][5] - The domestic production of fluff pulp is increasing, with major producers like Yueyang Lin Paper, Yunjing Paper, and Taiyang Huatai, where Yunjing Paper benefits from the raw material advantage of Simao pine [1][5] Key Insights and Arguments - The U.S.-China trade war has significantly impacted China's fluff pulp imports, with U.S. products having advantages in raw materials and processing, although domestic alternatives are gaining market recognition [1][9] - Fluff pulp trade is primarily based on long-term contracts, resulting in low market liquidity, with external pricing influenced by U.S. GP brand and domestic prices affected by quality differences and tariffs [1][7] - Domestic needle and broadleaf pulps can technically be converted to fluff pulp, but high-end production requires quality wood chips and suitable processing formulas, making raw material and process improvement critical [1][10] Market Dynamics - China's fluff pulp demand is approximately 1.5 to 2 million tons annually, while domestic supply is only 100,000 to 200,000 tons, leading to a heavy reliance on imports, especially from the U.S. [5] - Current inventory levels among downstream demand enterprises, such as sanitary napkin and diaper manufacturers, typically hold around two months of stock, with overall liquidity being low [6] - The pricing trend for fluff pulp has been affected by tariffs, with imported prices rising significantly, and domestic prices also showing an upward trend [8][19] Potential Risks and Opportunities - The potential for European suppliers to replace U.S. sources for China is limited due to lower overall capacity and commercial practices [3][11] - Domestic melt-blown enterprises are benefiting from the trade war, with companies like Huatai Group planning to expand production capacity significantly [3][14] - The quality gap between domestic and U.S. fluff pulp remains a challenge, but companies like Yunding are gaining market acceptance, indicating potential for domestic products to serve as substitutes [9][23] Additional Considerations - The feasibility of circumventing tariffs through indirect imports is theoretically possible but faces practical challenges, including regulatory scrutiny and additional costs [12] - The use of bamboo or needle pulp as substitutes for traditional fluff pulp has been attempted but faces quality and consumer acceptance issues [13] - The production costs in Simao region are competitive, but Huatai's costs may be similar or higher due to raw material sourcing challenges [27] Conclusion - The fluff pulp industry is navigating significant challenges due to trade dynamics, quality disparities, and evolving domestic production capabilities, presenting both risks and opportunities for stakeholders in the market [1][5][9]

Summary of Conference Call on Fluff Pulp Industry Industry Overview - The fluff pulp market is facing a price increase pressure of 20%-30% due to supply constraints [1] - High-end fluff pulp is made from softwood and is suitable for baby diapers, while mid-range fluff pulp is used for regular sanitary napkins, with differences in raw materials and performance [1] - Imported fluff pulp, primarily from North America and Northern Europe, has superior fiber length and strength compared to domestic materials [1][5] - China relies heavily on imports for fluff pulp due to the scarcity of softwood resources [1][6] Key Points and Arguments - Current fluff pulp prices are approximately $1,050 per ton for IPH and around 8,100-8,200 RMB per ton for domestic softwood pulp [1][7] - If tariffs remain unchanged, domestic prices are expected to exceed 9,000 RMB, while imported products may reach around 12,000 RMB [1][7] - New production capacities are being introduced both domestically and internationally, which may alleviate supply tightness [1][8] Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - The fluff pulp supply chain is under pressure due to the U.S.-China trade war, which has increased import costs by about 50% [2] - Domestic companies are responding to rising costs by building new factories and managing inventory [9][10] - The majority of high-quality fluff pulp is concentrated in North America and Northern Europe, with China producing only a small fraction of its annual demand of approximately 1 million tons [6] Downstream Impact - Downstream companies, including those producing baby diapers and sanitary products, are significantly affected by rising costs [2][11] - The cost of fluff pulp constitutes about 10% of the total production cost for female hygiene products, allowing for some buffer against price increases [12] - Companies are currently observing market conditions and managing inventory levels to mitigate immediate impacts [12][14] Future Considerations - The price volatility of fluff pulp will test the supply chain management capabilities of downstream brands [13] - Smaller companies may face greater pressure and could pause production plans if they continue to rely on imported materials [13][14] - It is recommended to monitor fluff pulp price fluctuations and adjust procurement strategies to ensure supply chain stability [15]