Core Viewpoint - Consumption is a key driver of economic growth and plays a crucial role in enhancing domestic circulation and meeting the aspirations of the people for a better life. Rural consumption is integral to both macroeconomic development and the well-being of residents [1][2]. Summary by Sections Rural Consumption and Economic Growth - Rural residents' consumption is linked to macroeconomic performance and the welfare of the population. Improvements in rural infrastructure and market conditions have positively impacted rural economic development and consumption [1][2]. - The rural consumption market is expanding and upgrading, but it still faces several constraints that need to be addressed to fully unleash its potential [1][2]. Changes in Consumption Demand - Rural residents' consumption needs encompass daily necessities as well as higher-quality demands in areas like health, education, and entertainment. The establishment of comprehensive logistics services and improved connectivity has facilitated modern consumption in rural areas [2][3]. - The marginal propensity to consume for rural residents is higher than that of urban residents, indicating a significant potential for growth in rural consumption [3]. Trends in Rural Consumption - In 2024, rural retail sales are expected to grow by 4.3%, outpacing urban growth by 0.9%. The share of rural retail in total social retail sales has increased to 13.7% [4]. - Demographic changes, such as aging populations and returning migrant workers, are reshaping rural consumption patterns, leading to a demand for diverse and high-quality products and services [4][5]. Supply Constraints in Rural Markets - There is a notable disparity in the quality and variety of products and services available in rural markets compared to urban areas. This gap limits the ability of rural residents to meet their consumption needs locally [5][6]. - The lack of a robust service infrastructure in areas like healthcare and elder care is a significant barrier to enhancing rural consumption [6]. Strategies for Enhancing Rural Consumption - Increasing rural residents' income is essential for boosting consumption capacity. This involves creating job opportunities and improving social security systems [7][8]. - Developing a comprehensive rural consumption market system is crucial, including enhancing logistics and retail infrastructure to ensure access to quality products and services [8]. - Addressing public service gaps in education, healthcare, and cultural services is necessary to improve the overall quality of life for rural residents [8][9]. - Expanding and enriching consumption scenarios by integrating new industries and promoting healthy consumption practices can help meet the aspirations of rural residents [9].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the retail industry, with expectations of continued pressure on physical retail operations and a focus on online retail as the main growth driver [2][36]. Core Insights - In 2024, the retail market is expected to face challenges due to a slowdown in consumption growth, increased savings willingness, and external macroeconomic impacts, leading to insufficient consumer demand and a need for improved consumer confidence [2][4]. - Online retail remains the primary driver of consumption growth, although its growth rate has slowed. The report anticipates that companies with strategies closely aligned with consumer needs and efficient multi-channel service capabilities will achieve structural growth [2][36]. - The government is expected to continue and possibly increase policy support for the consumption sector in 2025, but the effectiveness of these policies will depend on improvements in consumer spending capacity and willingness [2][36]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In 2024, consumer spending is crucial for GDP growth, but the growth rate is slowing, particularly in the department store sector, which faces significant operational pressure [4][5]. - The retail industry is a vital part of the modern commercial circulation system, contributing significantly to economic circulation and employment [4]. Retail Performance - In 2024, China's total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.5%, a noticeable slowdown compared to the previous year. Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 6.5%, contributing significantly to overall retail growth [5][25]. - The performance of various retail formats showed mixed results, with convenience stores and specialty stores experiencing growth, while department stores and brand specialty stores faced declines [5][19]. Subsector Analysis 1. **Department Stores** - The department store sector has seen a decline in retail sales, with a 5.0% drop in the first three quarters of 2024 compared to the previous year. The sector is under significant operational pressure, with many stores closing [13][15]. - The overall performance of department stores is at a low point, with revenue and profit indices at their lowest in nearly a decade [15]. 2. **Supermarkets** - Supermarkets showed some resilience, with a 2.7% growth in 2024, but the overall recovery trend remains unclear. Many supermarkets reported increased sales without corresponding profit growth [19][20]. - The number of supermarket stores is decreasing, with more closures than openings, indicating a challenging competitive environment [20]. 3. **Online Retail** - Online retail continues to be a significant growth driver, with a 6.5% increase in sales in 2024, outpacing overall retail growth. The top 100 online retail companies generated a total sales volume of 1.91 trillion yuan [25][26]. - Innovations such as live streaming and instant retail are key factors driving online consumption growth [26]. Industry Policies and Focus - The government has implemented various policies to stimulate consumption, including the "old for new" policy for consumer goods, which is expected to support market growth [28]. - The retail industry has seen increased capital activity, with several mergers and acquisitions aimed at optimizing asset structures and expanding market presence [32][34].

证券研究报告|专题研究 25年05月05日 华福证券 AI浪潮中，谁将盈利突围？ 证券分析师： 研究助理： 周浦寒 S0210524040007 杨逸帆 S0210124110046 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 投资要点 风险提示：历史经验不代表未来;行业不确定性风险;国内经济复苏速度不及预期;海外降息节奏不及预 期;地缘政治风险。 2 华福证券 华福证券 "宏观叙事→股价驱动→财务筛选"方法论：我们认为，技术革命中主要受益的是三类"风口"公司 。对应股价，第一波行情驱动是估值，走出第二波行情多需要盈利验证。财务视角下，我们寻找到3 个领先盈利的信号。最终，希望筛选出：AI浪潮中，或将率先盈利、走出第二波行情的核心标的。 宏观叙事中，技术革命中3类"风口"上的公司或受益腾飞：1）上游"卖铲子"，2）技术新需求， 3）赋能全行业。而且，我们可以通过普及率、渗透率，观察产业的整体进展。 公司股价中，行情驱动或从估值转向盈利。第一波行情的股价多由估值驱动，而股价走出第二波行情 ，就需要得到公司业绩的验证。2次技术革命、3类"风口"公司，都验证了这一股价驱动因素的转变 。映射当下，多数AI公司或已上涨"估 ...