dbg markets发现摩根士丹利利率策略团队近期发表了观点，美联储未来的降息幅度，可能比当前市场定价 的水平更为激进。 市场此前对鲍威尔讲话的普遍预期是"中性偏鹰"，认为美联储会继续强调 "通胀尚未回归2%目标"，从而保 留加息的可能。但摩根士丹利团队发现，鲍威尔不再将对抗顽固通胀作为政策首要目标，反而多次表示需 密切关注劳动力市场疲软信号。摩根士丹利认为，这种重就业、轻通胀的表示，本质上是美联储为后续更 大幅度降息进行准备。 摩根士丹利建议投资者采取三类操作。 一是做多美国 5 年期国债，这类中期债券对降息节奏最敏感，利率下行会直接推升债券价格。 二是参与做陡交易，即在收益率曲线短端建立多头头寸，赚取短期降息带来的收益，同时在长端建立空头 头寸，规避长期利率上升导致的价格下跌风险。 三是做多2026年1月到期的联邦基金期货，这类期货合约的价格直接反映市场对未来利率的预期，做多操作 相当于押注2026年初的联邦基金利率，会比当前市场定价更低。 摩根士丹利经济学家团队专门构建了三种可能改变联邦基金目标利率路径的替代情景，并进行概率加权测 算。 情景一，美国劳动力市场加速疲软，非农就业新增连续3个月低于10万 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets are showing a divergence in signals regarding the potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with prediction markets indicating a higher likelihood of his removal compared to the rates market, which remains more stable and focused on economic fundamentals [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Signals - Prediction markets, particularly Polymarket, have seen increased betting odds on Powell being dismissed by 2025 following Trump's public demand for his resignation [1][3]. - In contrast, the rates market, particularly the federal funds futures market, has reduced its expectations for interest rate cuts, now predicting a decrease of 43 basis points by year-end, down from 67 basis points at the end of June [1][4]. Group 2: Economic Data Influence - Stronger-than-expected employment data has led the rates market to reassess the likelihood of significant rate cuts, indicating that economic resilience and inflation risks are influencing market sentiment [4]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's more moderate stance on the Federal Reserve has provided a stabilizing effect on the rates market, contrasting with Trump's more aggressive rhetoric [1][4]. Group 3: Divergence Analysis - The divergence between prediction markets and rates markets began in early July, with the rates market focusing more on economic signals rather than political noise [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that while prediction markets may react to political statements, the rates market prioritizes economic fundamentals and policy signals, indicating a more cautious approach among traders [3][4].

Core Insights - The June employment data significantly exceeded expectations, with non-farm employment growth far surpassing predictions and an unexpected decline in the unemployment rate [1] - The market reacted swiftly, leading to a sharp drop in Treasury prices, a surge in overnight index swap (OIS) rates, and a collapse in secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) futures, resulting in a "bear flattening" of the yield curve [1] - The probability of a rate cut in July plummeted from 25% to 4% following the data release, indicating a strong labor market that supports the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates [1] Employment Data Analysis - State and local government jobs increased by 73,000, primarily in the education sector, while federal government jobs decreased by 7,000 [1] - Private sector employment growth was below expectations, yet the overall labor market remains robust, providing sufficient justification for the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged [1]

Group 1 - The financial markets are reassessing the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, posing new challenges for global stock markets and the dollar [1] - The Federal Reserve is currently adopting a cautious wait-and-see approach, awaiting further clarity on inflation and economic outlook [1] - There is a high level of uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, with officials expressing concerns about persistent inflation and potential economic weakness [1] Group 2 - Upcoming key economic data will provide insights into the true state of the U.S. economy, with a focus on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index [2] - The overall PCE is expected to slightly decrease to 2.2% year-on-year, the lowest level in seven months, while core PCE is projected to drop to 2.5%, the lowest since March 2021 [2] Group 3 - Economic data is not entirely optimistic, with a second estimate of Q1 GDP expected to confirm a 0.3% annualized decline [3] - Consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level since June 2022, indicating a decline in market sentiment [3] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates before September, with a 40.1% chance of a delay in rate cuts [3] - The market's expectations for rate cuts this year have been reduced to only 40 basis points, the most moderate setting for 2025 in three months [3] - The trend of delayed rate cuts may invigorate long-term U.S. Treasury and gold prices, while putting pressure on the stock market and the dollar [3]

5月13日纽约上午的联邦基金期货显示，交易员预计美联储可能在接下来的两次政策会议上维持基准利 率不变，并可能在9月降息。根据芝加哥商品交易所(CME)的美联储观察工具(Fedwatch Tool)，交易员预 计美联储6月份维持当前4.25%至4.5%利率区间的可能性为91.8%，7月份维持利率不变的可能性为 61.4%。联邦基金期货显示，美联储在9月份的下次会议上降息25个基点的可能性为52.4%。 ...

在这场政策博弈中，美国收益率曲线正悄然发生结构性变化。安联投资观察到，随着市场对经济滞胀风险的定价升温，长期美债期限溢价已攀升至高位。最 新数据显示，10年期美债收益率较联邦基金利率高出135个基点，达到2019年以来最阔水平。这种收益率曲线陡峭化趋势，实质是投资者为应对政策不确定 性索取的风险补偿。当30年期美债拍卖需求出现2020年3月以来最疲软表现时，市场正在用真金白银表达对美元资产的谨慎态度。 全球资产管理巨头安联投资最新研判揭示，美国经济正站在十字路口——增长放缓与通胀压力并存的经济困境，正在撕裂美联储"充分就业+物价稳定"的双 重政策目标。这场由特朗普政府掀起的贸易政策风暴，不仅将美联储推入历史性政策困局，更在全球金融市场掀起连锁反应，重塑着投资者对美元资产和利 率路径的认知图谱。 迈克尔·克劳茨贝格尔指出，特朗普政府激进的贸易保护主义正在制造三重政策冲突：首先，关税壁垒推高进口商品价格，与美联储抗击通胀的使命形成直 接对冲；其次，贸易不确定性侵蚀企业投资信心，与维持就业市场稳定的政策目标背道而驰；更关键的是，白宫持续施压美联储降息的举动，正在动摇全球 投资者对美国货币政策独立性的信仰基石。 美元 ...