随着贝莱德(BLK.US)首席投资官里克.里德尔(Rick Rieder)出任美联储下任主席的呼声日益高涨，债券期 货交易员正加大押注美联储将转向鸽派政策。 近日，与美联储政策基准利率——担保隔夜融资利率(SOFR)和联邦基金利率挂钩的利率期货市场资金 流动显著提速，与此同时，预测市场显示里德尔出任下任美联储主席的赔率跃居首位。 周一公布的联邦基金期货与SOFR期货持仓数据显示，市场对新交易的需求持续攀升，这类交易将从比 当前定价更激进的降息路径中获益。值得关注的是，7-8月的1个月期联邦基金利率期货利差、6-12月的 6个月期SOFR期货利差均录得历史成交量。 作为华尔街资深人士，市场认为里德尔若执掌美联储，将推行以市场为核心的政策思路。去年9月，他 曾主张美联储采取更激进的50个基点降息举措，而非美联储此前偏好的25个基点小幅降息;同时，他也 对美联储通过"点阵图"为未来利率走势提供前瞻性指引的做法持反对态度。 包括Krishna Guha在内的Evercore ISI经济学家本周早些时候撰文称："里德尔倾向于鸽派利率政策，或 推动美联储今年实施三次降息。"该观点的依据是里德尔对生产率、通胀动态及劳动力市 ...

【导读】美国最新通胀数据， 强化了交易员对美联储6月降息的预期 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，简单关注一下美国的最新CPI数据，将影响美联储的降息路径。 1月13日晚间， 美国劳工部周二表示，去年12月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，与 去年11月持平。 剔除波动较大的食品和能源后，核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，同样与11月一致。 经济学家此前预计，去年12月CPI同比上涨2.7%，核心CPI同比上涨2.8%。 从环比来看，经季节调整后，12月CPI上涨0.3%，符合经济学家的预期。核心CPI环比上涨 0.2%，低于经济学家预期的0.3%。 劳工部称，12月多个与家庭开支密切相关的项目价格明显上涨，例如食品杂货和外出就餐， 住房成本、交通服务以及医疗护理费用也在12月加速上行。相对而言，汽油价格以及二手 车、二手卡车价格出现下降。 最新的报告也标志着数月来首次对通胀趋势进行"完整体检"。由于去年秋季美国政府停摆， 劳工部无法进行线下价格采集，只能在此前的通胀报告中用技术性方法补齐缺失数据。 经济学家认为，一个月前公布的11月通胀数据可能被"人为压低"。他们提醒说，本次公布的 12月数据可能会对11月被 ...

Group 1 - The market is increasingly betting on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut now at approximately 80%, up from 30% just days prior [1] - The recent employment data released for September showed mixed results, leading to a shift in interest rate expectations [3] - New York Fed President John Williams indicated that there is still room for further rate cuts due to a softening labor market, which intensified the rate cut expectations [3] Group 2 - There is a significant divide within the Federal Reserve, but the dovish sentiment appears to outweigh the hawkish views, as indicated by various officials supporting a rate cut [4] - The net long positions in the bond market have reached their highest level in nearly 15 years, reflecting the dovish sentiment in the futures market [4] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell below 4% for the first time in a month, signaling a response to the dovish outlook [4]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are significantly betting on the Federal Reserve's policymakers to cut interest rates again in the upcoming meeting next month, following a week where doubts about rate cuts have dissipated, laying the groundwork for a rise in U.S. Treasury bonds [1][3]. Market Sentiment - The shift in interest rate expectations began with the mixed September non-farm payroll data released last week, followed by comments from New York Fed President John Williams indicating potential room for rate cuts due to a weak labor market [3]. - The futures market reflects a dovish sentiment, with a recent survey from JPMorgan showing net long positions at their highest level in about 15 years [3]. Treasury Yield Movement - On Tuesday, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 4% for the first time in a month, influenced by speculation regarding Kevin Hassett as a potential future Fed chair, which has heightened expectations for rate cuts over the next year [4]. Positioning in Futures Market - Since last Thursday, the total number of new positions in January federal funds futures has approached 275,000 contracts, indicating a significant increase in market positioning for a rate cut [5]. - The price of the January contract rose from a low of 96.18 to a high of 96.35, reflecting continued inflow of new long positions [5]. Divergence in Predictions - While most Wall Street strategists predict a rate cut in December, not all are as confident as traders. Morgan Stanley has removed its forecast for a rate cut, and JPMorgan leans towards maintaining rates next month, although the December decision remains close [6]. - Overall, the economic growth in the U.S. has been strong, but there are still downward risks in the labor market, and inflation remains above target levels [6]. Options Market Activity - In the SOFR options market, there has been a significant increase in open interest for contracts with a strike price of 96.25, primarily driven by a surge in bullish positions for December 2025 options [9][10]. - The premium for options used to hedge Treasury risks has remained near neutral levels, with a slight bias towards call options, indicating that traders are paying more to hedge against short- and medium-term contract price increases [13].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve appears to be divided in its conclusions despite having access to the same data, leading to confusion among analysts [1][2] - The term "likely not appropriate" was frequently used regarding a potential rate cut, indicating a cautious stance from the Fed [2] - Inflation has been persistent and largely unchanged over the past year, yet the Fed is currently focusing on it [2] Group 2 - There was a misconception in the media regarding a spike in interest rates, which did not occur as reported [3][4] - Fed fund futures indicate a decreasing probability of a rate cut, with a brief dip below 30% [3] - The 10-year yield has been fluctuating within a narrow range of 4.07% to 4.17% since the last rate cut in October, suggesting a period of stability [5]

Group 1 - The US dollar index is stable around 99.50, with a slight decline of 0.06% as traders await delayed non-farm payroll data [1] - Federal Reserve officials express concerns about the labor market, with Vice Chairman Jefferson noting a "sluggish" state and hiring hesitance due to economic policy changes and AI [1][2] - The implied probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has decreased to 43%, down from 62% a week ago, indicating a significant cooling of rate cut expectations [1][2] Group 2 - Following the end of the longest government shutdown in US history, traders are looking for insights into Fed monetary policy, with key speeches expected from Fed officials [2] - Economists predict an increase of approximately 50,000 jobs in September, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.3%; a weaker report could lead to selling pressure on the dollar [2] - Market expectations for a December rate cut have dropped significantly, with current probabilities likened to a coin toss, amid persistent inflation and a softening labor market [2][3] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that the dollar index faced resistance below 99.60 and support above 99.25, suggesting potential for upward movement if it stabilizes above 99.35 [4] - Short-term resistance levels for the dollar index are identified at 99.65-99.70, with important support levels at 99.15-99.20 [4]

Core Insights - The market is increasingly concerned about liquidity, leading traders to record levels of activity in a specific segment of the U.S. interest rate futures market, betting on potential changes in overnight loan rate spreads if the Federal Reserve takes action to alleviate financing pressures [1][2] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group reported that the trading volume of futures related to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and the federal funds rate reached historical peaks, with over 400,000 contracts traded for the one-month SOFR-federal funds basis [1] - The current SOFR is 4.27%, while the effective federal funds rate is 4.12%, indicating a spread of 15 basis points [1] Group 1 - Recent market pressure signals have led some Wall Street strategists to believe that the Federal Reserve will take action to improve market liquidity, although no measures were announced by Chairman Jerome Powell [2] - The lack of direct action from the Federal Reserve regarding repo rates initially caused disappointment in the market, resulting in a new wave of activity in SOFR-federal funds basis trading, particularly for November contracts [2] - Traders are repositioning in anticipation of a potential policy shift from the Federal Reserve, while also aiming to mitigate risks amid ongoing financing pressures [2] Group 2 - The liquidity pressures are expected to persist into November, driven by the continued reduction of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and the U.S. Treasury's issuance of more short-term debt, which will absorb significant cash from the market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. financing market is experiencing a "bull-bear divergence," with Wall Street strategists debating the potential for easing in the coming months, primarily driven by fluctuations in overnight borrowing costs [1] Group 1: Factors Driving Divergence - Multiple factors have contributed to the rise in U.S. short-term interest rates, creating the backdrop for the divergence. These include increased short-term bond issuance by the U.S. Treasury to rebuild cash reserves, which raises borrowing costs due to heightened demand for short-term funds [2] - The Federal Reserve's steady balance sheet reduction is tightening liquidity, further constraining the supply of funds [2] - The near-zero usage of the central bank's overnight lending facility indicates reduced reliance on the central bank, but also reflects uneven distribution of funds, potentially exposing some institutions to hidden gaps [2] Group 2: Contrasting Views from Major Banks - JPMorgan, led by Teresa Ho, advocates for easing, arguing that the market has overestimated the risks of rising financing costs, predicting a softening of overnight rates by the end of 2025. Their strategy involves buying December SOFR futures and selling equivalent federal funds futures, anticipating a narrowing of the current spread between SOFR (4.42%) and the 30-day federal funds rate (4.33%) [3] - Citigroup, under Jason Williams, takes a contrary stance, expecting financing costs to remain elevated or even rise by the end of 2025. Their strategy involves shorting December SOFR contracts relative to federal funds rates, predicting that SOFR will remain 4-5 basis points higher during favorable conditions [3][4] Group 3: Market Adjustments and Sentiments - Other institutions are also adjusting their positions, reflecting differing judgments. Barclays has shifted its stance, exiting a long position on SOFR relative to federal funds due to the normalization of rising financing costs [4] - Morgan Stanley remains optimistic, suggesting that liquidity pressures may ease by October, leading to a decline in financing costs, while American Bank adopts a flexible approach, closing short positions and recommending long positions on SOFR relative to federal funds for early 2026 [5] Group 4: Consensus on Liquidity Crisis - Despite significant divergence, there is a consensus among major banks that a liquidity crisis similar to the "cash crunch" of September 2019 is unlikely to recur. This is attributed to a more robust liquidity safety net, including the Federal Reserve's standing repo facility (SRF) and overall sufficient bank reserves [6][7] - The current banking system's buffer capacity is stronger than it was before the 2019 crisis, and improved policy communication has reduced market uncertainty, allowing the focus to shift to interest rate levels rather than potential crises [7]

Group 1 - The report highlights a strong expectation in the U.S. federal funds futures market for interest rate cuts, with traders anticipating a reduction of 85 basis points (bp) in the next 6 months and 125 bp in the next 12 months [3][15][16] - Following the Federal Reserve's recent 25 bp rate cut, market expectations for future policy paths remained unchanged, indicating that the cut was fully anticipated by the market [4][16] - The report suggests that the U.S. stock market is likely to benefit from the anticipated rate cuts, as historical trends show that such cuts can lead to upward movements in stock prices [4][23] Group 2 - In the context of the Chinese stock market, the report indicates that the Fed's rate cuts may provide a supportive backdrop for growth stocks, but the actual performance will depend on domestic policy triggers [4][59] - The report notes that the A-share market's structural growth opportunities are still present, driven by advancements in the AI industry, despite the lack of immediate policy stimulus [4][60] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to be more sensitive to international liquidity, with historical patterns suggesting it may outperform the A-share market following rate cuts [4][59] Group 3 - The report discusses the gold market, indicating that after the initial rate cut, gold is likely to enter a more volatile phase, with its price movements increasingly influenced by geopolitical risks rather than interest rate expectations [5][41] - Historical data shows that gold prices have shifted from a strong negative correlation with interest rate expectations before the first rate cut to a more mixed pricing mechanism afterward [5][43] Group 4 - The report emphasizes that the dynamics of the copper and oil markets post-rate cut are complex, with price movements showing significant divergence and being influenced by demand expectations rather than solely by interest rate changes [5][62]

Group 1 - The effective federal funds rate has slightly increased to 4.09%, indicating a potential shift in the liquidity environment as it remains within the Federal Reserve's target range of 4% to 4.25% [1][4] - There is a notable consumption of excess reserves in the banking system, particularly with foreign financial institutions withdrawing funds, which suggests a diminishing market buffer and increased volatility in funding prices [1][4] - The recent rise in the effective rate is interpreted as an early signal of "stress testing," reflecting a higher sensitivity in the short-term market and necessitating attention from the Federal Reserve [4][5] Group 2 - The participation landscape in the federal funds market has shifted, with commercial banks opting to deposit funds directly with the Federal Reserve, leading to a concentration of trading among Federal Home Loan Banks and some foreign financial institutions [4] - Data indicates a continuous decrease in commercial banks' deposits at the Federal Reserve, alongside a significant decline in liquidity for foreign banks, highlighting a gradual reduction in marginal liquidity [4] - The demand for reverse repurchase agreements, which serve as a reservoir for excess funds, has fallen to a four-year low, further emphasizing the diminishing marginal liquidity [4]