Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Reactions - The global market continued to rebound after the FOMC meeting, driven by interpretations of the Fed's accommodative policy, deteriorating labor data, and liquidity injections, leading to a decline in the dollar and an increase in gold prices [1] - The Fed's hawkish rate cut was accompanied by dovish signals, with Powell emphasizing a softening labor market and the expectation that future rate hikes are no longer the baseline scenario, heightening market expectations for continued accommodative policies [1] - Following the FOMC decision, traders increased bets on larger rate cuts in 2026, resulting in a significant drop in the dollar and boosting risk appetite [2] Group 2: Labor Market Data - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. surged to 236K, significantly higher than the market expectation of 220K, marking the largest weekly increase since 2020 [2] - The previous value was revised to 192K, highlighting the acceleration in the labor market's loss of momentum, which exceeded the Fed's expectations [2] Group 3: Liquidity Measures - The Fed announced it would resume short-term Treasury bill purchases at a rate of approximately $40 billion per month, with the first operation size being $8.167 billion [2] - This move aims to stabilize short-term funding markets and restore declining reserve balances, ensuring that policy rates remain within the target range [2] - Although not officially labeled as quantitative easing, the liquidity effects are similar, leading to an expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and systemic liquidity improvement [2] Group 4: Dollar and Gold Outlook - The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) has decisively broken below a recent bullish consolidation range, indicating a return to a bearish trend, with the index dropping to 98.00, the lowest level since October [2] - Gold has broken out of a long-term consolidation range of 4,175–4,235, benefiting from the weaker dollar and expectations of declining yields [5] - Technical analysis suggests that as long as XAU/USD remains above 4,235, short-term declines may present buying opportunities aligned with the upward trend [8] Group 5: Market Focus - The market is closely monitoring the continuation of the "Fed pivot" trade and the initiation of the first liquidity operation, with key economic data such as the Eurozone CPI and speeches from Fed officials expected to influence market direction [8]

Group 1: US-China Trade Developments - Risk assets have shown signs of recovery due to progress in US-China trade discussions, with a potential opportunity to reduce the current high tariffs (145% from the US and 125% from China) as officials meet in Switzerland [1] - Traders are closely monitoring the trade tensions between the two economic giants, as any clarity on tariff reductions could benefit risk assets [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve meeting this week is a major focus, with no rate adjustments expected this month, but traders are looking for clues about potential rate cuts in June [3] - Recent strong US employment data has reduced the urgency for a dovish tone from the Fed, making the likelihood of a June rate cut appear smaller [3] - Uncertainties surrounding trade agreements during the current 90-day tariff suspension period are crucial for the US and global GDP, influencing the Fed's future decisions [3] Group 3: Gold Market Trends - Gold prices have risen due to increased safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions, surpassing resistance at $3350 and reaching above $3400 [4] - However, headlines regarding US-China negotiations have somewhat suppressed gold prices, causing a retreat below $3400 [4] - Long-term bullish prospects for gold remain intact, but progress in trade agreements could challenge the demand for precious metals in the short term [4] Group 4: Oil Market Volatility - Oil market volatility has increased, with prices initially dropping due to OPEC+'s decision to increase production next month [6] - Geopolitical tensions and a slightly weaker dollar have allowed oil prices to rebound from weekly lows, with WTI crude trading around $59.27 [6] - Short-term optimism from potential trade agreements could support oil prices, although increased supply from OPEC+ may limit upward potential [6] Group 5: Economic Data Releases - The remainder of the week will see relatively few economic data releases, with the Bank of England expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut and Chinese inflation data due over the weekend [8] - Developments in tariffs will continue to be a major driver for stock, commodity, and currency markets [8]

Group 1: International Insights - Goldman Sachs expects further depreciation of the US dollar [2] - JPMorgan highlights that Federal Reserve rate cuts will present significant opportunities for US Treasury bonds [2] - Deutsche Bank lowers year-end targets for US stock indices, warning about potential impacts from tariffs [2] Group 2: Domestic Insights - CITIC Securities expresses strong confidence in the government's commitment to stabilizing the capital market [2] - CITIC Securities notes tightening indicators for tungsten mining, suggesting a potential upward shift in tungsten prices [2] - CITIC JianTou indicates weak expectations for the fuel cell vehicle sector, but anticipates a sales turning point in May-June [2] - Huatai Securities points out that the valuation of internet financial platforms is becoming more attractive [2] - Huatai Securities observes a decrease in financial stock positions in Q1, recommending to seize structural opportunities [2] - Guojin Securities asserts that the pharmaceutical sector possesses strong risk resistance and growth potential [2] - China Merchants Securities states that MLF net injections are providing mid-term liquidity support for banks, with potential for further reserve requirement ratio cuts to provide long-term funding [2]