瑞银发布研报称，将李宁(02331)投资评级由"中性"上调至"买入"，预期今年首季销售增长将按季显著加 速，由低单位数跌幅转为中高单位数升幅，主要受Glory系列、新户外类别以及羽毛球和跑鞋产品持续 强劲所带动。该行将2025至2027年净利润预测上调4%至7%，目标价由21.8港元升至28.6港元，相当于 预测2027年市盈率18倍。瑞银料李宁2026年至2029年每股盈利预测各为1.18元、1.37元、1.55元及1.7元 人民币。 ...

瑞银发表报告表示，将李宁的投资评级由"中性"上调至"买入"，预期今年首季销售增长将按季显著加 速，录得中高单位数升幅，主要受Glory系列、新户外类别以及羽毛球和跑鞋产品持续强劲所带动。该 行将2025至2027年净利润预测上调4%至7%，目标价由21.8港元上调至28.6港元，相当于预测2027年市 盈率18倍。 ...

花旗发表研报指，李宁管理层预计2025年销售额将实现按年低单位数增长，主要因非李宁专卖店的羽毛 球产品销售胜预期；又预期2025年净利润率将达到其高单位数指引的高端(花旗认为超过9%)，原因是政 府补助等其他收入高于预期，及营运支出低于预期。基于2026年预测18倍市盈率，该行将其目标价从 20.6港元上调至22港元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Li Ning [1][6][25] Core Views - Li Ning's second quarter performance aligns with expectations, with overall channel revenue showing low single-digit growth, while offline channels experienced a decline [6] - The company is actively managing risks in a challenging retail environment, with a focus on long-term stability [6] - Marketing efforts are expected to increase due to the endorsement of NBA player Yang Hanshen and the partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Li Ning are as follows: - 2023: 276 billion RMB - 2024: 287 billion RMB - 2025E: 288 billion RMB - 2026E: 301 billion RMB - 2027E: 312 billion RMB - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 31.9 billion RMB - 2024: 30.1 billion RMB - 2025E: 24.8 billion RMB - 2026E: 26.4 billion RMB - 2027E: 27.8 billion RMB - The expected PE ratios are 12 for 2023, 12 for 2024, 15 for 2025, 14 for 2026, and 13 for 2027 [5][6][16] Company Performance Insights - The inventory level is healthy, with a stock-to-sales ratio of approximately 4 months, although discount rates are under pressure due to weak industry demand [6] - Running and fitness categories are leading growth, while basketball products are experiencing a decline of over 20% [6] - The number of sales points for Li Ning (excluding Li Ning Young) is 6099, with a net increase of 11 stores in the second quarter [6] - The company plans to continue opening new stores in the second half of the year, maintaining its annual store opening plan [6]

Company Overview - The major shareholder, Everbright, announced an increase in its stake in Li Ning Company by acquiring 18.09 million shares for a total of HKD 275 million at an average price of HKD 15.20 per share [1] Business Performance - Li Ning's basketball business is under pressure, with retail sales expected to decline by 21% in 2024, accounting for 21% of the company's overall sales [1] - Despite the challenges, Li Ning continues to sponsor various basketball leagues and is focused on launching new products and technologies to maintain brand positioning [1] - The company signed a player who was selected 16th in the 2025 NBA Draft, marking the third Chinese player to be a first-round pick, which is expected to enhance brand visibility in the basketball sector [1] Strategic Initiatives - In the second quarter of 2025, Li Ning's brand is still facing pressure from a volatile market environment and intense competition, particularly in retail and discounting [2] - The company aims to innovate in core categories like running and basketball while increasing exposure and investment in sports like badminton and table tennis [2] - A contract with the Chinese Olympic Committee was completed at the end of April, which is anticipated to lead to more marketing events in the second half of 2025 [2] Shareholder Confidence - The major shareholder's increase in stake from January to June 2025 reflects confidence in Li Ning's "single brand, multiple categories, and multi-channel" core strategy [2] Financial Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 and 2026 remains unchanged at CNY 0.92 and CNY 1.07, respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to 16 and 14 times the projected earnings for those years [2] - The target price is maintained at HKD 20.82, indicating a potential upside of 28% from the current stock price [2]