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李宁(02331.HK):2025Q2终端流水略增 库存情况健康
Ge Long Hui· 2025-07-16 03:24
Core Viewpoint - Li Ning's Q2 2025 operational performance shows mixed results, with adult sales under pressure due to a challenging consumption environment and store closures, while e-commerce sales growth has slowed compared to Q1 [1][2][3] Group 1: Sales Performance - Adult sales in Q2 2025 experienced low single-digit year-on-year growth, with offline channel sales declining low single digits and e-commerce sales growing in the mid-single digits [1] - Direct sales channels faced pressure with a year-on-year decline in Q2 2025, attributed to a significant number of store closures in the second half of 2024, resulting in 1,278 direct stores by the end of H1 2025, a net closure of 19 stores compared to the beginning of the year [1] - Wholesale channel sales grew low single digits year-on-year, with 4,821 wholesale stores by the end of H1 2025, indicating a stable performance and potential acceleration in store openings in the second half of the year [1] Group 2: E-commerce and Children's Segment - E-commerce sales growth in Q2 2025 slowed compared to Q1, attributed to a weaker overall sales performance during the 618 shopping festival, with Q2 e-commerce sales growing in the mid-single digits compared to low double digits in Q1 [2] - Li Ning's children's clothing segment, Li Ning YOUNG, is expected to outperform adult sales with steady growth, having 1,435 stores by the end of Q2 2025, a net closure of 33 stores since the beginning of the year [2] Group 3: Financial Outlook - The company is projected to have flat revenue growth in 2025, with a 21% decline in net profit attributable to shareholders, primarily due to increased marketing expenses [3] - Li Ning is focusing on product and marketing strategy optimization, including signing with the Olympic Committee for brand marketing, which may enhance brand influence [3] - The company aims to strengthen its core categories of running and basketball while expanding into other sports categories, which is expected to support long-term growth [3]
李宁(02331):流水表现符合预期,奥运及NBA营销提振品牌势能
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Li Ning [1][6][25] Core Views - Li Ning's second quarter performance aligns with expectations, with overall channel revenue showing low single-digit growth, while offline channels experienced a decline [6] - The company is actively managing risks in a challenging retail environment, with a focus on long-term stability [6] - Marketing efforts are expected to increase due to the endorsement of NBA player Yang Hanshen and the partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Li Ning are as follows: - 2023: 276 billion RMB - 2024: 287 billion RMB - 2025E: 288 billion RMB - 2026E: 301 billion RMB - 2027E: 312 billion RMB - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 31.9 billion RMB - 2024: 30.1 billion RMB - 2025E: 24.8 billion RMB - 2026E: 26.4 billion RMB - 2027E: 27.8 billion RMB - The expected PE ratios are 12 for 2023, 12 for 2024, 15 for 2025, 14 for 2026, and 13 for 2027 [5][6][16] Company Performance Insights - The inventory level is healthy, with a stock-to-sales ratio of approximately 4 months, although discount rates are under pressure due to weak industry demand [6] - Running and fitness categories are leading growth, while basketball products are experiencing a decline of over 20% [6] - The number of sales points for Li Ning (excluding Li Ning Young) is 6099, with a net increase of 11 stores in the second quarter [6] - The company plans to continue opening new stores in the second half of the year, maintaining its annual store opening plan [6]
李宁(02331.HK):控股股东增持 关注公司长期积极变化
Ge Long Hui· 2025-06-27 19:08
Company Overview - The major shareholder, Everbright, announced an increase in its stake in Li Ning Company by acquiring 18.09 million shares for a total of HKD 275 million at an average price of HKD 15.20 per share [1] Business Performance - Li Ning's basketball business is under pressure, with retail sales expected to decline by 21% in 2024, accounting for 21% of the company's overall sales [1] - Despite the challenges, Li Ning continues to sponsor various basketball leagues and is focused on launching new products and technologies to maintain brand positioning [1] - The company signed a player who was selected 16th in the 2025 NBA Draft, marking the third Chinese player to be a first-round pick, which is expected to enhance brand visibility in the basketball sector [1] Strategic Initiatives - In the second quarter of 2025, Li Ning's brand is still facing pressure from a volatile market environment and intense competition, particularly in retail and discounting [2] - The company aims to innovate in core categories like running and basketball while increasing exposure and investment in sports like badminton and table tennis [2] - A contract with the Chinese Olympic Committee was completed at the end of April, which is anticipated to lead to more marketing events in the second half of 2025 [2] Shareholder Confidence - The major shareholder's increase in stake from January to June 2025 reflects confidence in Li Ning's "single brand, multiple categories, and multi-channel" core strategy [2] Financial Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 and 2026 remains unchanged at CNY 0.92 and CNY 1.07, respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to 16 and 14 times the projected earnings for those years [2] - The target price is maintained at HKD 20.82, indicating a potential upside of 28% from the current stock price [2]
暴跌超2200亿!李宁,业绩失速
商业洞察· 2025-04-06 08:03
作者: 侃见财经 来源:侃见财经(lD:kanjiancaijing) 以下文章来源于侃见财经 ,作者侃见财经 侃见财经 . 看见不一样的财经! 一则不及预期的业绩指引继续"拖累"股价。 2024年财报披露后,李宁股价持续走低,4月3日盘中,股价一度跌近3%,最低报15.16港元, 相较于3月份的高点,累计跌幅超22%。 如果拉长周期来看,2021年9月至今,李宁股价累计跌幅已高达84.8%,总市值蒸发超2200亿 港元。 消息面上,李宁在2024年年报中给出了远低于市场预期的2025年业绩指引:全年收入同比持 平,净利率为高单位数(2024年为10.5%)。这是七年以来最低盈利预期。 浦银国际研报指出,李宁短期的销售趋势在国产品牌中依然较弱,渠道库存仍然存在隐患,而其 较为激进地加大费用投入最终是否能转化为品牌力的提升与业绩的改善尚待时间来验证。 01 姗姗来迟的财报 李宁2024年财报姗姗来迟,是国产四大运动品牌中最后一家披露24年年报的企业。 财报显示,2024年,李宁实现营收286.76亿元,同比增长3.9%,毛利141.56亿元,同比增长 6.0%;归属于上市公司股东的净利润为30.13亿元,同比下 ...