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商品期权周报-20251109
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-09 14:57
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past week, the trading volume of commodity options increased slightly, with only the trading volume of the precious metals sector decreasing. Most varieties are in a volatility - reduction cycle, and it is advisable to move short - option positions to far - month contracts in advance to avoid end - of - contract risks [4]. - The options of the black sector showed increased volatility and trading volume. Affected by the decline in iron ore futures prices, the implied volatility of black options has risen. The previous policy - driven boost has basically been realized, and the market trading logic has returned to fundamentals. There is a lack of new macro - drivers, and the upward momentum of prices has been weakened. The implied volatility still has room to rise, and it is advisable to buy a bearish put spread portfolio to hedge against the downward market [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The trading volume of commodity options increased slightly last week, with the precious metals sector being the only one with a decline in trading volume. Energy and chemical products such as short - fiber, PTA, methanol, glass, crude oil, caustic soda, soda ash, and bottle chips are about to expire on Wednesday. Most varieties are in a volatility - reduction cycle [4]. - The options of the black sector showed increased volatility and trading volume. The implied volatility of black options has risen due to the decline in iron ore futures prices. The previous policy - driven boost has basically been realized, and the market trading logic has returned to fundamentals [4]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Overview - The table shows the quantitative data of commodity options, including the flat - value volatility, 60 - day quantile, Skew, and 60 - day quantile of various varieties such as corn, soybean meal, and crude oil [12]. 3.2.2 - 3.2.54 Option Data of Each Variety - For each variety (such as corn, soybean meal, etc.), the data includes the closing price, trading volume, open interest, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, flat - value volatility, HV - 10 days, HV - 20 days, and Skew of the main contract, secondary - main contract, and all contracts [13][14][15] etc.
商品期权周报-20251012
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-12 13:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday until the daytime closing on Friday, the trading volume of commodity options decreased, and implied volatility (IV) almost declined across the board. On Friday night, macro - information increased market panic, and it is expected that IV will rise significantly in the short term. There are many end - of - life game opportunities for option buyers of expiring options on Monday (bottle chips, rapeseed meal, PTA, caustic soda, rapeseed oil, cotton, short - fiber, soda ash, methanol, glass, and sugar near - month contracts) and Wednesday (crude oil near - month contract). Attention should be paid to the risks of rising volatility and being exercised [4]. - Agricultural products are relatively less affected. Beans may have price - rising opportunities due to import constraints, and the IV of corresponding bean options is relatively low, which can be observed as long - term option - buying layout varieties, and call options can be bought at an appropriate time [4]. - Under the weak fundamental and macro - environment of some non - ferrous and new - energy varieties, more call options can be sold to obtain income, and put options can be bought for directional trading or hedging [4]. - For varieties with strong fundamentals, volatility can be observed, and out - of - the - money put options can be sold at low prices and high volatility to gradually build long positions [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The overall trading volume of the commodity option market this week was 6,438,734, a decrease of 0.11% from last week, and the open interest was 9,557,880, an increase of 0.17% from last week. Among them, the trading volume of agricultural products was 1,599,862.75, an increase of 0.39% from last week; the trading volume of energy and chemical products was 2,661,095.25, a decrease of 0.01% from last week; the trading volume of black metals was 401,971.5, a decrease of 0.46% from last week; the trading volume of precious metals was 604,400.75, a decrease of 1.48% from last week; the trading volume of non - ferrous and new - energy varieties was 1,171,403.75, an increase of 0.3% from last week [7]. 3.2 Corn Options - The closing price of the main contract c2511 was 2125, down 53, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 124,100, an increase of 13,703 from last week, and the open interest was 383,371, an increase of 15,154 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 10.62 to 9.82 [15]. 3.3 Soybean Meal Options - The closing price of the main contract m2511 was 2900, down 5, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 294,614, a decrease of 78,523 from last week, and the open interest was 1,033,413, an increase of 29,869 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 15.24 to 11.67 [16]. 3.4 Rapeseed Meal Options - The closing price of the main contract rm2511 was 2458, up 2, with 1 trading day remaining. The total trading volume this week was 125,135, an increase of 11,621 from last week, and the open interest was 188,419, an increase of 14,047 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 29.68 to 23.0 [17]. 3.5 Palm Oil Options - The closing price of the main contract p2511 was 9320, up 146, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 137,584, a decrease of 13,943 from last week, and the open interest was 159,813, an increase of 22,108 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 20.56 to 16.64 [18]. 3.6 Soybean Oil Options - The closing price of the main contract y2511 was 8308, up 138, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 50,526, a decrease of 2,659 from last week, and the open interest was 110,669, a decrease of 6,590 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 14.57 to 11.76 [20]. 3.7 Rapeseed Oil Options - The closing price of the main contract oi2511 was 10232, down 99, with 1 trading day remaining. The total trading volume this week was 78,760, an increase of 1,466 from last week, and the open interest was 117,792, an increase of 6,435 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 24.53 to 14.4 [21]. 3.8 Peanut Options - The closing price of the main contract pk2511 was 7786, down 12. The total trading volume this week was 143,362, an increase of 111,981 from last week, and the open interest was 126,256, an increase of 47,710 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased slightly from 14.53 to 14.38 [22]. 3.9 Yellow Soybean No. 1 Options - The closing price of the main contract a2511 was 3953, up 18, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 40,498, a decrease of 6,520 from last week, and the open interest was 95,611, a decrease of 2,971 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 11.43 to 9.58 [23]. 3.10 Yellow Soybean No. 2 Options - The closing price of the main contract b2511 was 3617, up 8, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 37,607, a decrease of 4,560 from last week, and the open interest was 49,036, an increase of 12,990 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 16.0 to 10.45 [24]. 3.11 Ethylene Glycol Options - The closing price of the main contract eg2511 was 4127, down 82, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 18,246, an increase of 9,615 from last week, and the open interest was 38,874, an increase of 10,430 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 14.22 to 11.61 [25]. 3.12 Styrene Options - The closing price of the main contract eb2511 was 6743, down 206, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 104,692, an increase of 25,779 from last week, and the open interest was 99,287, an increase of 25,520 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 17.99 to 16.16 [26]. 3.13 Sugar Options - The closing price of the main contract sr2511 was 5518, up 11, with 1 trading day remaining. The total trading volume this week was 91,045, a decrease of 6,956 from last week, and the open interest was 300,087, an increase of 6,975 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 12.39 to 10.39 [27]. 3.14 Cotton Options - The closing price of the main contract cf2601 was 13325, down 80, with 44 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 214,938, an increase of 78,620 from last week, and the open interest was 490,224, an increase of 77,596 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 11.62 to 9.57 [28]. 3.15 PTA Options - The closing price of the main contract ta2511 was 4510, down 114, with 1 trading day remaining. The total trading volume this week was 385,737, an increase of 144,364 from last week, and the open interest was 335,302, an increase of 74,644 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 23.02 to 16.2 [29]. 3.16 PX Options - The closing price of the main contract px2512 was 6490, down 150, with 13 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 16,658, a significant decrease from last week, and the open interest was 23,469, an increase of 15,242 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 18.02 to 16.26 [30]. 3.17 Caustic Soda Options - The closing price of the main contract sh2511 was 2420, down 63. The total trading volume this week was 143,556, an increase of 50,630 from last week, and the open interest was 106,911, an increase of 21,096 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 31.88 to 21.11 [31]. 3.18 Rubber Options - The closing price of the main contract ru2601 was 15315, down 155, with 54 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 12,402, a decrease of 22,076 from last week, and the open interest was 42,424, an increase of 4,193 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 19.89 to 18.73 [32]. 3.19 BR Rubber Options - The closing price of the main contract br2511 was 11220, down 210, with 11 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 22,220, a significant decrease from last week, and the open interest was 17,469, an increase of 3,604 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 25.7 to 21.92 [33]. 3.20 Polyethylene Options - The closing price of the main contract (assumed) was 7019, down 80, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 24,028, an increase of 1,486 from last week, and the open interest was 56,346, an increase of 7,430 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 9.89 to 8.74 [34]. 3.21 Polypropylene Options - The closing price of the main contract pp2511 was 6651, down 166, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 37,271, an increase of 2,961 from last week, and the open interest was 98,340, an increase of 20,257 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 9.64 to 9.42 [35]. 3.22 Methanol Options - The closing price of the main contract ma2511 was 2255, down 39. The total trading volume this week was 208,323, an increase of 68,535 from last week, and the open interest was 285,762, an increase of 48,102 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 21.19 to 13.4 [36]. 3.23 Liquefied Petroleum Gas Options - The closing price of the main contract pg2511 was 4070, down 220, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 42,903, a slight decrease from last week, and the open interest was 42,637, an increase of 18,342 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 21.43 to 16.38 [37]. 3.24 PVC Options - The closing price of the main contract v2511 was 4652, down 160, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 102,281, an increase of 18,834 from last week, and the open interest was 253,204, an increase of 55,006 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 15.1 to 12.75 [38]. 3.25 Crude Oil Options - The closing price of the main contract sc2511 was 461.9, down 29.4, with 3 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 72,598, an increase of 32,140 from last week, and the open interest was 45,021, an increase of 18,972 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 41.12 to 29.34 [39]. 3.26 Iron Ore Options - The closing price of the main contract i2511 was 811.5, up 7.0, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 130,400, an increase of 7,948 from last week, and the open interest was 267,334, an increase of 36,386 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 22.03 to 17.36 [40].
商品期权周报-20250901
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 05:31
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - In the past week, trading volume and implied volatility of commodity options decreased in almost all sectors. In the energy and chemical sector, the trading volume of p-xylene at the end of its option cycle significantly boosted the trading enthusiasm of the entire sector. The option trading volume of glass and soda ash returned to a high level. Given the pressure in the futures market, using options to capture trading opportunities is relatively safe. [5] - Due to the impact of interest rate cuts, the implied volatility of precious metal options rose in direct proportion to the futures price, and the skewness was at a relatively high level. Attention could be paid to the signal of volatility decline for right-side trading. [5] - In the agricultural products sector, the long position of cotton call options increased, and the trading volume of put options increased significantly. The volatility skewness declined from a high level. Consider selling at-the-money call options and buying out-of-the-money call options for protection. [5] Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview - The trading volume and implied volatility of commodity options decreased in almost all sectors last week. The end-of-cycle trading volume of p-xylene in the energy and chemical sector boosted the trading enthusiasm of the entire sector. The option trading volume of glass and soda ash returned to a high level. The futures market still faced pressure, and using options to capture trading opportunities was relatively safe. [5] - Affected by interest rate cuts, the implied volatility of precious metal options rose in direct proportion to the futures price, and the skewness was at a relatively high level. Attention could be paid to the signal of volatility decline for right-side trading. [5] - In agricultural products, the long position of cotton call options increased, and the trading volume of put options increased significantly. The volatility skewness declined from a high level. Consider selling at-the-money call options and buying out-of-the-money call options for protection. [5] 2. Market Data 2.1 Market Overview - Provided the quantitative data of commodity options, including the volatility, 60-day quantile, skewness, and 60-day quantile of various commodities such as corn, soybean meal, and palm oil [13]. 2.2 - 2.55 Individual Option Market Data - Detailed market data for various options were presented, including contract information, trading volume, open interest, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility, historical volatility, and skewness. For example, in the corn option market, the trading volume and open interest of call and put options, as well as their changes compared to the previous week, were provided [14][15][16].
商品期权周报-20250817
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-17 12:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past week, the trading volume of commodity options increased slightly, mainly due to the increment brought by the rising volatility of the agricultural products sector. Meanwhile, the trading volume of the non - ferrous and new energy sectors decreased along with the decline of implied volatility. The implied volatility of non - ferrous sector options is at a relatively low level recently, and buying options for price reversal trading can be considered [5]. - The options of contracts such as soybean meal, corn, starch, iron ore, liquefied gas, polypropylene, PVC, plastic, palm oil, soybean No.1, soybean No.2, soybean oil, styrene, ethylene glycol, eggs, live pigs, and log 509 are about to expire. Attention should be paid to the end - of - month risks when changing contracts [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Overview - The trading volume of commodity options increased slightly last week, mainly due to the increment from the agricultural products sector. The trading volume of non - ferrous and new energy sectors decreased, and their implied volatility also declined. The implied volatility of non - ferrous sector options is at a recent low [5]. - The options of certain contracts are about to expire, and attention should be paid to the end - of - month risks [5]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Overview - The trading volume of the overall market this week was 8,808,344.8, with a week - on - week increase of 0.17%. The open interest was 8,996,228, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.27%. Among them, the trading volume of the agricultural products sector increased by 2.45%, that of the energy and chemical sector increased by 0.17%, that of the black sector increased by 0.4%, and that of the precious metals sector increased by 1.26%. The trading volume of the non - ferrous and new energy sectors decreased by 1.82%. The open interest of the agricultural products sector decreased by 0.1%, that of the energy and chemical sector decreased by 0.55%, that of the black sector decreased by 0.19%, and that of the non - ferrous and new energy sectors increased by 0.41% [6]. 3.2.2 - 3.2.55 Various Option Market Data - For each type of option (such as corn, soybean meal, etc.), detailed data on trading volume, open interest, volume PCR, open interest PCR, at - the - money volatility, HV - 10 days, HV - 20 days, and Skew are provided, including data for this week, last week, and their changes [12 - 44]. 3.3 Chart Analysis No relevant content provided.
商品期权周报-20250804
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 05:39
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading enthusiasm in the commodity options market has declined, with implied volatility falling along with trading volume. The actual volatility of most varieties remains at a relatively high level, and the decline rate of implied volatility is gradually slowing down. Additionally, the fluctuations in futures prices and the spread of hot - spot varieties have increased commodity arbitrage opportunities [5]. - The near - month options contracts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will expire on Thursday. The trading volume and open - interest ratios of the call options of the double - silicon varieties continue to increase, and the skew is also rising in a high - level oscillation. It is advisable to consider buying a bull spread portfolio for short - term speculation [5]. - The skew center of the black sector options has declined, and the implied volatility is at a high level, but the premium space compared with the actual volatility is limited. One can consider selling out - of - the - money call options and buying out - of - the - money put options for a skew regression arbitrage strategy, while paying attention to appropriate Delta - neutral hedging. The arbitrage space for rebar options is relatively large [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The trading volume of the overall market decreased by 0.45%, while the open interest increased by 0.21%. Among different sectors, the trading volume of agricultural products increased by 0.68%, energy and chemical decreased by 0.19%, black decreased by 0.14%, precious metals decreased by 2.76%, and non - ferrous and new energy decreased by 0.98%. The open interest of agricultural products increased by 0.09%, energy and chemical increased by 0.29%, black increased by 0.21%, precious metals increased by 0.48%, and non - ferrous and new energy increased by 0.25% [6]. 3.2 Commodity - Specific Option Data - **Corn Options**: The trading volume and open interest of call and put options showed different changes. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew also decreased [18][19]. - **Soybean Meal Options**: The trading volume decreased, while the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew also decreased [20]. - **Rapeseed Meal Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew also decreased [22]. - **Palm Oil Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased significantly [23]. - **Soybean Oil Options**: The trading volume and open interest showed mixed changes. The implied volatility of at - the - money options increased slightly, and the skew decreased [24]. - **Rapeseed Oil Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased [25]. - **Peanut Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased slightly, and the skew increased [26]. - **Yellow Soybean No. 1 Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew increased significantly [27]. - **Yellow Soybean No. 2 Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew increased [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [29]. - **Styrene Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [30]. - **Sugar Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased significantly [31]. - **Cotton Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [32]. - **PTA Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [33]. - **PX Options**: The trading volume and open interest showed significant changes. The implied volatility of at - the - money options had some fluctuations, and the skew had some changes [34]. - **Caustic Soda Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [35]. - **Rubber Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased slightly. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [36]. - **BR Rubber Options**: The trading volume decreased significantly, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased [37]. - **Polyethylene Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased [38]. - **Polypropylene Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased [39]. - **Methanol Options**: The trading volume decreased significantly, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [40]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas Options**: The trading volume decreased slightly, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased [41]. - **PVC Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [42]. - **Crude Oil Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options increased slightly, and the skew decreased [43]. - **Iron Ore Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased significantly [44].
能源化工期权策略早报-20250509
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-05-09 04:01
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and volatility of various energy and chemical options, and provides corresponding strategy recommendations [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Energy and Chemical Option Classification - Energy and chemical options are mainly divided into five categories: basic chemicals, energy, polyester chemicals, polyolefin chemicals, and other chemicals [3] 3.2 Basic Chemicals Sector - **Methanol Options**: The price is under pressure and shows a weak and bearish trend. Implied volatility is above the historical average. A bearish combination strategy of call + put options is recommended [3] - **Rubber Options/Synthetic Rubber Options**: The market shows a weak consolidation and oscillation pattern under bearish pressure. Implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level. A bearish volatility - selling strategy is recommended [3] - **Styrene Options**: Affected by the Sino - US tariff war, downstream demand is weak. The market shows a large - fluctuation and weak trend. Implied volatility remains at a relatively high historical level. A volatility - selling option combination strategy is recommended [4] 3.3 Oil and Gas Sector - **Crude Oil Options**: OPEC+ increases supply, but exports do not increase significantly. The market shows a large - fluctuation pattern under bearish pressure. Implied volatility remains at a relatively high level. A volatility - selling strategy is recommended [4] - **Liquefied Gas Options**: The price has a short - term weak rebound under pressure. Implied volatility is above the historical average. A bearish call + put option combination strategy is recommended, and the position delta should be adjusted dynamically [4] 3.4 Polyester Chemicals Sector - **PX Options/PTA Options**: PTA load is decreasing, and inventory is decreasing year - on - year. The market shows a mild bullish trend under bearish pressure. Implied volatility remains at a relatively high level. A volatility - selling strategy is recommended [5] - **Ethylene Glycol Options**: Port inventory is increasing, and downstream inventory days are rising. The market shows a large - oscillation and short - term weak bearish trend. Implied volatility has risen rapidly to a relatively high historical level. A volatility - selling strategy is recommended [5] - **Short - Fiber Options**: Polyester load is high, but short - fiber load is slightly decreasing. The market shows a rebound pattern under bearish pressure. Implied volatility remains at a relatively high average level. A volatility - selling call + put option combination strategy is recommended [5] 3.5 Polyolefin Chemicals Sector - **Polypropylene Options**: Inventory shows different trends among producers, traders, and ports. The market shows a large - oscillation and weak pattern. Implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level. A bearish call + put option combination strategy is recommended, and the position delta should be adjusted dynamically [6] - **Polyethylene Options**: Producer and trader inventories are increasing. The market shows a weak consolidation pattern under pressure. Implied volatility has risen rapidly to a relatively high level. A bearish directional strategy is recommended [6] - **PVC Options**: Factory and social inventories are decreasing year - on - year. The market shows a weak bearish downward trend. Implied volatility remains at a relatively low level. A bearish directional strategy is recommended [6] 3.6 Data Summary - **Option Underlying Market Data**: Includes closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various option underlying assets [8] - **Option Volume, Open Interest, and Turnover Data**: Volume, open interest, and turnover data of various options, as well as their changes [9] - **Option Volume, Open Interest, and Turnover PCR Data**: PCR data and their changes of various options [10] - **Option Maximum Open Interest at Strike Prices**: Maximum open interest at strike prices, pressure points, and support points of various options [11] - **Option Implied Volatility Data**: Implied volatility, its changes, annual average, call and put implied volatilities, and historical volatility of various options [13]
能源化工期权策略早报-20250421
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-04-21 04:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report conducts fundamental, market, and volatility analyses of various energy and chemical options, and provides corresponding strategy operations and suggestions [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Energy and Chemical Option Classification - Energy and chemical options are mainly divided into 5 categories: basic chemicals, energy, polyester chemicals, polyolefin chemicals, and other chemicals [2] 3.2 Option Analysis and Strategy Suggestions for Each Category 3.2.1 Basic Chemicals Sector - **Methanol Option**: Last week, port inventory increased by 1.58 tons to 58.56 tons, enterprise inventory decreased by 0.19 tons to 31.24 tons, and enterprise orders to be delivered increased by 1.99 tons to 27.44 tons. The market continued to fluctuate weakly under the bearish pressure line. The implied volatility remained above the historical average. Suggest to construct a bearish combination strategy of call + put options to obtain time - value and directional returns, such as S_MA2506P2275, etc. [2] - **Rubber/Synthetic Rubber Option**: As of April 18, the all - steel tire operating rate was 67.44% (+0.23%), and the semi - steel tire operating rate was 72.40% (-1.99%). Qingdao port inventory decreased slightly, while social inventory increased slightly. The market showed a weak consolidation and oscillation pattern under the bearish pressure line. The implied volatility of rubber options was at a relatively high historical level. Suggest to construct a bearish volatility - selling strategy to obtain directional and time - value returns, such as S_RU2509P14250, etc. [2] - **Styrene Option**: As of April 17, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene factories was 21.84 tons, a decrease of 0.98 tons (-4.30%) from the previous period, and the sample port inventory in Jiangsu was 9.56 tons, a decrease of 2.34 tons (-19.66%). After reaching a high in late February, it continued to decline weakly, and after an accelerated decline in early April, it rebounded and oscillated in a range. The implied volatility continued to fluctuate at a relatively high historical level. Suggest to construct a volatility - selling option combination strategy to obtain time - value and directional returns, such as S_EB2506P7100, etc. [3] 3.2.2 Oil and Gas Sector - **Crude Oil Option**: OPEC plans to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in May. US supply has declined. The short - term supply negatives have been fully released, and shale oil has started to cut production. The market showed large fluctuations under the bearish pressure line. The implied volatility remained at a relatively high level. Suggest to construct a volatility - selling strategy: a combination of selling put and call options to obtain time - value returns, such as S_SC2506P4 and S_SC2506C [3] - **Liquefied Gas Option**: Port storage capacity utilization was at a multi - year low, refinery storage capacity utilization was near the multi - year low, and gas station storage capacity utilization was at a one - year low. Port inventory was at a low level. The market showed a short - term weak rebound pattern with upper pressure. The implied volatility remained above the historical average. Suggest to construct a bearish call + put option combination strategy to obtain directional and time - value returns, adjust the position delta dynamically according to market changes, and close the position if the market rises or falls sharply, such as S_PG2506P4250, etc. [3] 3.2.3 Polyester Chemicals Sector - **PX/PTA Option**: The overall social inventory of PTA (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 297.7 tons, a decrease of 7.3 tons from the previous period, continuing the de - stocking trend. The downstream load continued to rise, and the PTA maintenance season continued. The market showed a pattern of bearish decline with upper pressure, and then a sharp oscillation in the low - level range after an oversold rebound. The implied volatility of PTA options rose rapidly to a relatively high level. Suggest to construct a volatility - selling strategy to obtain time - value returns, such as S_TA2506P4250 [4] - **Ethylene Glycol Option**: As of April 14, port inventory was 77.1 tons, a decrease of 2.9 tons from the previous period; downstream factory inventory days were 13.5 days, an increase of 0.3 days. In the short term, port inventory is expected to accumulate. The market showed a pattern of short - term weak bearish large - scale oscillation with upper pressure. The implied volatility rose rapidly to a relatively high historical level. Suggest to construct a volatility - selling strategy to obtain time - value returns, such as S_EG2506P4050 [4] - **Short - Fiber Option**: Polyester load was 93.8%, an increase of 0.5%. Among them, filament load was 92.5%, a decrease of 2.5%; short - fiber load was 88.9%, unchanged; bottle chip load was 75.9%, unchanged. The market showed a pattern of bearish decline with upper pressure and low - level consolidation after an accelerated decline in April. The implied volatility remained at a relatively high average level. Suggest to construct a volatility - selling call + put option combination strategy to obtain time - value returns, such as S_PF2506P5800 [4] 3.2.4 Polyolefin Chemicals Sector - **Polypropylene Option**: PP production enterprise inventory was 61.91 tons, a week - on - week de - stocking of 2.83%, and a year - on - year stocking of 12.09%; PP trader inventory was 14.38 tons, a de - stocking of 4.26% from the previous week; PP port inventory was 7.60 tons, a de - stocking of 0.26% from the previous week. The market showed a pattern of large - scale oscillation with upper pressure and weakness. The implied volatility was fluctuating at a relatively high historical level. Suggest to construct a bearish call + put option combination strategy to obtain directional and time - value returns, adjust the position delta dynamically according to market changes, and close the position if the market rises or falls sharply, such as S_PP2506P7100 [5] - **Polyethylene Option**: PE production enterprise inventory was 49.7 tons, a week - on - week stocking of 3.41%, and a year - on - year stocking of 2.58%; PE trader inventory was 5.39 tons, a stocking of 4.58% from the previous week. The market showed a pattern of weak consolidation with upper pressure. The implied volatility of plastic options rose rapidly to a relatively high level. Suggest to construct a bearish directional strategy to obtain directional returns, such as B_L2506P7200 [5] - **PVC Option**: Factory inventory was 41.1 tons, a de - stocking of 4 tons; social inventory was 72.5 tons, a de - stocking of 2.8 tons; overall inventory was 113.6 tons, a de - stocking of 6.8 tons; the number of warehouse receipts increased. The market showed a pattern of oscillatory rebound with upper pressure. The implied volatility remained at a relatively low level. Suggest to construct a bearish directional strategy to obtain directional returns, such as B_V2506P4900 [5] 3.3 Option Data Summary - **Option Underlying Market Data**: Provides closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various option underlying assets [7] - **Option Volume, Open Interest, and Turnover Data**: Includes volume, volume changes, open interest, open interest changes, turnover, and turnover changes of various options [8] - **Option Volume, Open Interest, and Turnover PCR**: Presents volume - PCR, volume - PCR changes, open interest - PCR, open interest - PCR changes, turnover - PCR, and turnover - PCR changes of various options [9] - **Option Maximum Open Interest at Strike Price**: Lists the pressure points, support points, maximum call open interest, and maximum put open interest of various options [10] - **Option Implied Volatility**: Shows implied volatility, implied volatility changes, annual averages, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, HISV - 20, and volatility differences of various options [12]
能源化工期权策略早报-2025-04-03
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-04-03 04:39
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The report conducts a comprehensive analysis of various energy - chemical options, including fundamental, market, and volatility analyses, and provides corresponding strategy suggestions for each type of option [3]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Basic Chemicals Sector - **Methanol Option**: Port and enterprise inventories are decreasing, and the market is in a state of recovery with upward pressure. It is recommended to construct a neutral combination of call and put options [3]. - **Rubber/Synthetic Rubber Option**: Tire production rates are declining, and the market shows a weak downward trend. A bear - spread put option strategy is recommended [3]. - **Styrene Option**: Port and factory inventories are decreasing, and the market is in a weak bearish state. A neutral wide - straddle option selling strategy is recommended [4]. 3.2 Oil and Gas Sector - **Crude Oil Option**: OPEC + production is increasing, and the market has short - term recovery characteristics. A volatility strategy of selling put and call options is recommended [4]. - **LPG Option**: Russian exports are decreasing, and domestic inventories are changing. The market shows short - term weakness and recovery. A neutral combination of selling call and put options is recommended [4]. 3.3 Polyester Chemicals Sector - **PX/PTA Option**: PTA inventory is decreasing, and the market is in a weak bearish and volatile state. A neutral option selling strategy is recommended [5]. - **Ethylene Glycol Option**: Inventory trends are mixed, and the market is in a short - term weak state. A neutral option selling strategy is recommended [5]. - **Short - Fiber Option**: Polyester production rates and inventory days are changing, and the market has support and pressure. A neutral option selling strategy is recommended [5]. 3.4 Polyolefin Chemicals Sector - **Polypropylene Option**: Inventories are decreasing, and the market shows a large - amplitude bearish trend. A bearish combination of selling call and put options is recommended [6]. - **Polyethylene Option**: Inventories are changing, and the market is in a weak consolidation state. A bearish directional strategy is recommended [6]. - **PVC Option**: Inventories are decreasing, and the market shows a volatile upward trend. A neutral combination of selling call and put options is recommended [6].
能源化工期权策略早报-20250319
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-03-19 07:17
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the energy and chemical options industry Core Insights - The energy and chemical options market is segmented into five main categories: basic chemicals, energy, polyester chemicals, polyolefins, and other chemicals [2] - Various strategies are recommended based on market conditions, including constructing neutral and bearish spread strategies to capitalize on time value and directional movements [2][3][4][5] Summary by Sections Basic Chemicals - **Methanol Options**: Operating rates are at 72% with a slight increase, while traditional downstream operating rates are at 42.4%. The market shows a weak upward trend after a high-level retreat [2] - **Rubber Options**: Operating rates for full steel tires are at 68.99%, with a slight recovery in downstream tire factory operations. The market is currently in a weak bearish trend [2] - **Styrene Options**: Inventory decreased to 246,200 tons, indicating a slight downward trend. The market is characterized by a weak bearish trend [3] Oil and Gas - **Crude Oil Options**: U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.448 million barrels, while gasoline inventories decreased. The market is experiencing a significant downward trend after a high-level retreat [2] - **Liquefied Gas Options**: Port inventory is at a multi-year low, with a recent rebound. The market shows a weak upward trend but is under pressure [2] Polyester Chemicals - **PTA Options**: Operating rates are at 76.8%, with a slight increase. The market is currently in a weak bearish trend after a recent high [4] - **Ethylene Glycol Options**: Port inventory is around 650,000 tons, with a slight decrease. The market is in a weak bearish trend [4] Polyolefins - **Polypropylene Options**: Downstream operating rates are at 49.63%, with a slight increase. The market is experiencing a wide range of fluctuations with bearish pressure [5] - **Polyethylene Options**: Downstream operating rates are at 35.00%, with a slight increase. The market shows a weak bearish trend [5] - **PVC Options**: Social inventory decreased by 0.76% to 858,600 tons. The market is in a weak bearish trend [5] Other Chemicals - **Soda Ash and Urea Options**: The report does not provide specific insights on these categories, but they are included in the overall analysis of the energy and chemical options market [2][5]
能源化工期权策略早报-2025-03-14
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-03-14 05:13
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the energy and chemical options industry Core Insights - The energy and chemical options market is segmented into five main categories: basic chemicals, energy, polyester chemicals, polyolefins, and other chemicals, each with specific strategies and recommendations based on market conditions [2][3][4][5] Summary by Sections Basic Chemicals - **Methanol Options**: The operating rate is at 71.64%, showing a slight decrease. The market is experiencing a weak consolidation phase after a high rebound [2] - **Rubber Options**: The operating rate for steel tires is 68.71%, with a slight recovery in downstream tire production. However, export orders are below expectations [2] - **Styrene Options**: The operating rate is at 78.45%, with a slight decrease. Inventory levels are showing signs of seasonal accumulation [3] Energy Sector - **Crude Oil Options**: U.S. crude oil inventories are reported at 83 million barrels, with a mixed trend in inventory changes. The market is experiencing a significant downward trend after a brief rally [3] - **Liquefied Gas Options**: The market is recovering from temporary supply disruptions due to weather, with a reported increase in domestic supply [3] Polyester Chemicals - **PTA Options**: The operating rate is at 73.6%, with a notable decrease. The market is showing signs of a bearish trend after a brief period of high prices [4] - **Ethylene Glycol Options**: Inventory levels are reported at 75.9 thousand tons, with a slight decrease. The market is experiencing a weak consolidation phase [4] Polyolefins - **Polypropylene Options**: Production is expected to increase by 10.85% in March. The market is currently in a wide fluctuation phase with bearish tendencies [5] - **PVC Options**: The operating rate is at 78.7%, with a slight decrease. The market is showing signs of weak consolidation [5] Other Chemicals - **Soda Ash and Urea Options**: The report provides insights into the operational metrics and market conditions for these chemicals, indicating a mixed performance across the board [5] Market Strategies - Various strategies are recommended for different options, including constructing neutral or bearish spreads to capitalize on market movements and volatility [2][3][4][5]