投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 | | Time to Matutity T | | Moneyness M = = | | | | 金融衍生品中心 李泽年 | | | | 从业资格号:F0251925 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 历史波动率 | | | | | | | | | | 标的 | 主力价格 | 涨跌幅 | 当大波动 | HV20 | HV40 | HV60 | HV120 | 标的 | 主力价格 | 流跌幅 | 当大波切 | HV20 | HV40 | HV60 | HV120 | | 沪铝 | 20590 | 49% | 10. 13% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 11% | PVC | 5004 | 0. 30% | 12. 18% | 23% | 23% | 20% | 19% | | 沪 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past week, the trading volume of commodity options increased slightly, mainly due to the increment brought by the rising volatility of the agricultural products sector. Meanwhile, the trading volume of the non - ferrous and new energy sectors decreased along with the decline of implied volatility. The implied volatility of non - ferrous sector options is at a relatively low level recently, and buying options for price reversal trading can be considered [5]. - The options of contracts such as soybean meal, corn, starch, iron ore, liquefied gas, polypropylene, PVC, plastic, palm oil, soybean No.1, soybean No.2, soybean oil, styrene, ethylene glycol, eggs, live pigs, and log 509 are about to expire. Attention should be paid to the end - of - month risks when changing contracts [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Overview - The trading volume of commodity options increased slightly last week, mainly due to the increment from the agricultural products sector. The trading volume of non - ferrous and new energy sectors decreased, and their implied volatility also declined. The implied volatility of non - ferrous sector options is at a recent low [5]. - The options of certain contracts are about to expire, and attention should be paid to the end - of - month risks [5]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Overview - The trading volume of the overall market this week was 8,808,344.8, with a week - on - week increase of 0.17%. The open interest was 8,996,228, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.27%. Among them, the trading volume of the agricultural products sector increased by 2.45%, that of the energy and chemical sector increased by 0.17%, that of the black sector increased by 0.4%, and that of the precious metals sector increased by 1.26%. The trading volume of the non - ferrous and new energy sectors decreased by 1.82%. The open interest of the agricultural products sector decreased by 0.1%, that of the energy and chemical sector decreased by 0.55%, that of the black sector decreased by 0.19%, and that of the non - ferrous and new energy sectors increased by 0.41% [6]. 3.2.2 - 3.2.55 Various Option Market Data - For each type of option (such as corn, soybean meal, etc.), detailed data on trading volume, open interest, volume PCR, open interest PCR, at - the - money volatility, HV - 10 days, HV - 20 days, and Skew are provided, including data for this week, last week, and their changes [12 - 44]. 3.3 Chart Analysis No relevant content provided.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 16, 2025, the trading volume of commodity options reached 6.75 million contracts. The trading volume of some varieties was relatively large, such as styrene options with 1.24 million contracts, PTA options with 480,000 contracts, and silver options with 430,000 contracts. In terms of open interest, soybean meal options exceeded 1.03 million contracts, and soda ash options exceeded 760,000 contracts. In terms of trading volume PCR, some varieties deviated significantly, such as zinc options with a PCR of 1.59 and urea options with a PCR of 0.39, presenting trading opportunities but also requiring caution regarding liquidity risks [1][3]. - In the agricultural products sector, the IV of hog options increased by 8.74%, and the IV of corn starch decreased by 2.48%. In the energy and chemical sector, the IV of styrene options increased by 9.24%, and the IV of manganese silicon options decreased by 1.18%. In the metal sector, the IV of each variety fluctuated, with the IV of iron ore options decreasing by 5.33% [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Quick View 1.1 Trading Volume and Open Interest - Provided detailed trading volume, open - interest, and other data for various option varieties, including soybean meal, corn, palm oil, etc. The trading volume and open - interest of different varieties showed significant differences, and the trading volume PCR and open - interest PCR also varied widely [6]. 1.2 Volatility - Presented the flat - strike IV, IV change (absolute value), historical volatility (30 - day, 60 - day, 90 - day), and implied - historical volatility difference for various option varieties. Different varieties had different trends in IV changes, such as an 8.74% increase in the IV of hog options and a 5.33% decrease in the IV of iron ore options [12]. 2. Variety Research - For each option variety (soybean meal options, rapeseed meal options, PTA options, etc.), it provided charts of the volatility smile curve, volatility term structure, recent one - month IV trend, and recent one - month implied - historical volatility difference [15][19][23].