Group 1 - The short-term logic of the bond market may have shifted from "fundamentals + liquidity" to "asset allocation" since July, with the bond market under pressure despite a relatively loose funding environment [6][10][28] - The 10-year government bond yield has shown an upward trend, primarily due to the thin safety cushion of fixed-income products and the cooling of fixed-income assets under the asset allocation effect [6][10][28] Group 2 - Key clues to the evolution of bond market logic include: 1) Reallocation of resident assets due to declining deposit rates since 2022, leading to a weakening of the bond market's profit-making effect [14][16] 2) An increase in residents' risk appetite, with equity assets potentially becoming the focus of asset reallocation [17][20] 3) Low odds and win rates for bond assets, as long-term bond yields have already priced in future rate cuts [18][21] Group 3 - The critical points for the rebalancing of stock and bond value include: 1) The relative comparison of dividend yields and bond yields [30] 2) Fund flows, with a potential shift in investor enthusiasm from bonds to stocks [30] 3) Changes in fundamentals, where unexpected pressures on the economy could lead to a resurgence in the bond market [30] Group 4 - The bond market strategy indicates that while risks are being released, a cautious judgment is maintained, with the 10-year government bond yield around 1.7% being unattractive [28][31] - The bond market may experience volatility from August to October, with the yield expected to range between 1.65% and 1.80%, and the potential for a steepening yield curve [28][31]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant adjustments, leading to increased redemption pressures as investors shift towards equity markets due to perceived better opportunities [1][4][9]. Market Adjustments - The bond market has seen a substantial adjustment, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to 1.75% on July 24, indicating a high level for the year [2][4]. - As of July 25, the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields were at 1.7325% and 1.9475%, respectively, reflecting the pressure on the bond market [2]. Investor Behavior - Investors are increasingly redeeming bond products, with reports indicating that the redemption pressure is greater than in previous instances, primarily due to low interest rates and limited returns [8][10]. - Data from Huaxi Securities shows that the net subscription index for public bond funds has been negative since July 21, with a significant single-day redemption recorded on July 24 [11]. Economic Outlook - Analysts predict that the economic growth rate may not decline significantly in the second half of 2025, which could lead to rising bond yields as market expectations adjust [3][15]. - The current bond yields are viewed as historically low, with expectations of upward adjustments due to improving economic conditions and inflation [15][16]. Market Sentiment - The simultaneous rise in equity and commodity markets has elevated risk appetite, further pressuring the bond market [5][6]. - The sentiment in the bond market is cautious, with many institutions favoring equities and commodities over bonds, indicating a potential shift in asset allocation [12][14].