Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The year-on-year growth rate of PPI rebounded to -2.9% in August, up from -3.6% in the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in industrial price pressures [4][8] - CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, which is lower than the expected -0.2%, suggesting ongoing deflationary pressures in consumer prices [4][5] - The core CPI has remained above seasonal levels for five consecutive months, indicating a potential stabilization in consumer demand [7][9] Group 2: Real Estate Industry Overview - The A-share real estate sector reported a revenue of 712.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 11.6%, although the decline rate has narrowed compared to the previous year [28] - Key real estate companies have shown improved land acquisition efforts, with a total land purchase amount of 399.9 billion yuan, representing 72% of their total for 2024 [29] - The overall policy environment remains supportive, with measures aimed at stabilizing the market and promoting housing demand, leading to a gradual recovery in transactions in some first- and second-tier cities [30][31] Group 3: Financial Sector Developments - The new regulations on fund sales are expected to lower subscription fees and standardize service fees, which may alter investor preferences towards more liquid financial products [22][23] - The demand for high liquidity financial products is anticipated to increase, particularly for those with minimal holding periods, as investors seek better returns amid changing fee structures [24] - The shift towards ETF trading and long-term holding of bonds is likely as investors adapt to the new redemption fee structures [25] Group 4: Company-Specific Updates - The company "Saiwei Times" announced a stock incentive plan aimed at enhancing its long-term incentive mechanisms, with a target net profit growth of 70%/155%/215% from 2025 to 2027 [33][34] - The company is leveraging digital transformation to enhance its product development, brand management, and supply chain efficiency, which is expected to strengthen its competitive advantage [35]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Even if the private sector's goal changes causing a decline in loans, it doesn't mean the economy won't recover, as demonstrated by the US from 2008 - 2011 [4] - During the economic recovery phase, it's reasonable for the private sector to continuously repay loans [5] - Despite the negative growth of new RMB loans in July 2025, the economy in the second half of 2025 is expected to remain stable [6] - There are two possibilities for the economy to perform well in the second half of 2025: the government sector continues to expand while the private sector doesn't, or the private sector starts to expand under policy incentives while the government sector remains stable [7] - With the economic outlook being revised, bond yields are expected to rise, and the target for the 10 - year Treasury yield in the second half of 2025 is 1.9 - 2.2% [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Understanding the Negative Loan Growth in July - On August 13, 2025, the PBOC announced that in July 2025, new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 9.0%, and RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan [3] Loan Decline and Economic Recovery - The US from October 2008 to April 2011 showed that even with a continuous decline in loan balance, the economy, stock market, and Treasury yields could rise significantly [4] - As the economy recovers, the private sector's ability to repay loans improves, so loan repayment and economic recovery are not contradictory [5] Economic Outlook in the Second Half of 2025 - The probability of continuous negative new loans in China is low. The negative new loans in July 2025 were affected by seasonality, and in 2005, new loans turned positive the next month [6] - The government's expansion can effectively offset the impact of the private sector's early loan repayment. Since September 2024, although the credit balance growth rate has continued to decline, the economy stabilized as the government adopted a policy combination of "monetary easing, fiscal expansion, and credit expansion", and the social financing stock growth rate has been rising [6] Bond Yield Outlook - With the social financing growth rate rising, the economy is expected to stabilize in the second half of 2025, and bond yields are expected to rise [8] - Historically, the reasonable level of the 10 - year Treasury yield is in the range of DR007 + 40 to 70BP. Considering the current DR007 level, the target for the 10 - year Treasury yield in the second half of 2025 is 1.9 - 2.2%. If inflation normalizes, the reasonable range of the 10 - year Treasury yield may also increase [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the resumption of value-added tax collection may lead to a rise in the yields of both new and old government bonds, necessitating close attention to investor sentiment towards newly issued government bonds [1] - It is anticipated that the target yield for 10-year government bonds in the second half of 2025 will be between 1.9% and 2.2% [1] - Economic growth is not expected to decline significantly in the second half of 2025, and with revised economic expectations, bond yields are likely to rise [1]

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown significant performance, with a recent price increase and strong liquidity, indicating a positive market sentiment towards long-term government bonds [3][4]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of July 30, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera rose by 0.22%, with a latest price of 110.63 yuan, and a cumulative increase of 9.67% over the past year [3]. - The ETF has achieved a recent scale of 14.685 billion yuan, marking a one-year high, and the number of shares reached 133 million, also a one-year high [3][4]. - Over the past year, the ETF's net value increased by 9.27%, ranking 7th out of 414 in the index bond fund category, placing it in the top 1.69% [4]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Investor Sentiment - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past nine days, totaling 5.843 billion yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 1.510 billion yuan [4]. - The leveraged funds have been actively investing, with a financing net purchase amount of 339,040 yuan this month and a latest financing balance of 10.6 million yuan [4]. Group 3: Risk and Return Analysis - The maximum drawdown since inception for the ETF is 6.89%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 1.28% [4]. - The ETF has a historical one-year profitability probability of 100%, with an average monthly return of 2.09% and a monthly profit percentage of 66.67% [4]. Group 4: Tracking Accuracy - The ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-year government bond index, with a tracking error of 0.035% over the past month [5]. - The index is composed of bonds that meet specific deliverable conditions for the 30-year government bond futures contracts [5].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant adjustments due to multiple factors, leading to a continuous rise in yields, with the 10-year treasury yield reaching 1.7325% and the 30-year yield at 1.9475%, both at year-high levels [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - A notable change in market risk appetite is the core driver putting pressure on the bond market, with the stock market breaking key levels and the Shanghai Composite Index nearing 3600 points, showing a weekly increase of 1.67% [2][3] - Commodity prices have surged, with lithium carbonate futures rising over 7% and polysilicon prices hitting new highs, which diminishes the relative attractiveness of bond assets [2][3] Group 2: Liquidity and Institutional Behavior - The liquidity situation has worsened since mid-July, with significant fluctuations in funding rates and the central bank's operations showing a net withdrawal of funds, leading to a spike in the 10-year treasury yield [2][4] - Institutional investors are accelerating withdrawals from the bond market, with redemption pressures on bond funds increasing significantly, and the net subscription index for public bond funds remaining negative since July 21, reaching a record single-day redemption of 29.2 on July 24 [4][5] Group 3: Future Market Expectations - There is a divergence in expectations regarding the future trajectory of the bond market, with some institutions cautious about the potential for further rate increases, while others believe yields are still at historical lows and may rise due to stable economic growth and improving inflation [5] - The current adjustment in the bond market is viewed as manageable, with the 10-year treasury yield rising approximately 7 basis points, which is still within a controllable range compared to historical adjustments [5]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant adjustments, leading to increased redemption pressures as investors shift towards equity markets due to perceived better opportunities [1][4][9]. Market Adjustments - The bond market has seen a substantial adjustment, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to 1.75% on July 24, indicating a high level for the year [2][4]. - As of July 25, the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields were at 1.7325% and 1.9475%, respectively, reflecting the pressure on the bond market [2]. Investor Behavior - Investors are increasingly redeeming bond products, with reports indicating that the redemption pressure is greater than in previous instances, primarily due to low interest rates and limited returns [8][10]. - Data from Huaxi Securities shows that the net subscription index for public bond funds has been negative since July 21, with a significant single-day redemption recorded on July 24 [11]. Economic Outlook - Analysts predict that the economic growth rate may not decline significantly in the second half of 2025, which could lead to rising bond yields as market expectations adjust [3][15]. - The current bond yields are viewed as historically low, with expectations of upward adjustments due to improving economic conditions and inflation [15][16]. Market Sentiment - The simultaneous rise in equity and commodity markets has elevated risk appetite, further pressuring the bond market [5][6]. - The sentiment in the bond market is cautious, with many institutions favoring equities and commodities over bonds, indicating a potential shift in asset allocation [12][14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pattern of the upward movement of bond yields in this round may shift from the previous "tightening of funds by the central bank → upward movement of bond yields" to "trend - upward movement of the stock market → upward movement of bond yields" [5] - If the economy is relatively stable in the second half of the year and inflation recovers moderately, the funds rate may rise with a lag, and this kind of funds tightening is irreversible, pushing the yields to rise continuously in a step - by - step manner [5] - If the economy does not decline significantly in the second half of the year, funds in the bond market may gradually flow out, and the flow pattern may be "stock market rise → lagged rise in bond yields → final rise in the funds rate". For the convertible bond market, if the economy does not decline significantly, off - market funds may flow in trend - wise [6] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Three Dimensions of the Stock - Bond Seesaw - Intraday seesaw: When the bond lacks a main - line logic, the risk preference of the stock market may affect the bond trend, but it is mainly a short - term disturbance [2] - Periodic seesaw: It is often related to the short - term and drastic flow of funds. When the stock market rises significantly, it may lead to the concentrated redemption of bond funds and the inflow into stock funds, causing a short - term and obvious adjustment in the bond market [2] - Trend - based seesaw: For example, in 2017 and from May to December 2020, the stock market rose and bond yields went up; in 2018, the stock market fell and bond yields declined [2] 2. Essence of the Trend - based Stock - Bond Seesaw - Except for the period from 2014 - 2015, the trend - upward movement of the stock market usually occurs when the economy is improving, corresponding to the trend - upward movement of bond yields [3] - The trend - upward movement of the stock market leads the upward movement of bond yields. For example, in November 2008, the stock market started to rise, while for bonds it was January 2009 [3] 3. Four Logics for the Stock Market's Leading Role - The stock market is more sensitive to the economy as stock trading is often bottom - up and more sensitive to changes in micro - entities [4] - The stock market represents the market - based endogenous driving force. Only when market expectations continue to improve will the stock market show a trend - upward movement [4] - Bond investors have strong stickiness because of the coupon income of bond assets. As long as the yields do not rise significantly, holding bonds to obtain coupons is often the dominant choice [4] - Due to the relative - return - based assessment mechanism of bond funds, bond investors have difficulty in reducing the duration [4]