Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang indicated that future forecasts will exclude the Chinese market, yet the significance of China to Nvidia remains critical, as evidenced by the emphasis on Huawei as a competitive threat [3] Group 1: Nvidia's Strategy in China - Nvidia is developing a new generation of chips for the Chinese market, based on the GB202 GPU architecture, with plans to launch these new processors as early as July 2024 [3] - The new chips will include two models, referred to as B20 and B40/B30, which may be marketed as variants of the RTX 6000 series to obscure their Blackwell lineage [4] - Recent U.S. export controls have imposed restrictions on memory bandwidth and interconnect speed, leading to the use of GDDR memory in the new chips instead of HBM memory [4] Group 2: Chip Specifications - The B20 chip will utilize Nvidia's ConnectX-8 for interconnect functionality, optimized for small-scale clusters with 8 to 16 cards, primarily for inference tasks [6] - The B30/B40 models will support NVLink interconnect but at reduced speeds compared to standard specifications, with expected bandwidth similar to the H20's 900Gbps [7] - Memory configurations for the new chips are anticipated to include 24GB, 36GB, and 48GB, with the 48GB option being the most likely [8] Group 3: Market Demand and Pricing - The new chips are expected to be priced between $6,500 and $8,000, significantly lower than the H20's price range of $10,000 to $12,000, which may drive sustained customer demand [9] - Full server configurations with these new chips are estimated to cost between $80,000 and $100,000, depending on the connectivity options [9] Group 4: Customer Interest and Market Dynamics - Major Chinese tech companies have shown varying interest in the new chip models, with Tencent favoring the B20 for its cost-effectiveness in inference tasks, while ByteDance is more interested in the B30 and B40 to meet market demand left by the H20's discontinuation [10][11] - Alibaba has not specified a preference for particular models but indicates a strong overall demand for the chips [11] Group 5: Current Situation and Challenges - The true test for Nvidia will come once major Chinese customers receive testing cards, as the evaluation process typically takes about a month before large orders can be placed [12] - Despite Huang's comments, the Chinese market remains a vital revenue source for Nvidia, and competitors like Huawei continue to advance their own R&D efforts [12]

Core Insights - Chinese tech companies are preparing for a future without American chips, particularly Nvidia, by shifting towards domestic chip alternatives for AI development [1][2][4] - The U.S. government has tightened export controls on advanced chips to China, requiring companies like Nvidia to obtain licenses for sales, which has accelerated the urgency for Chinese firms to adapt [1][4] - Major Chinese firms like Baidu and Tencent are exploring various chip options and developing their own AI processors to meet growing demands [2][4] Group 1: Industry Response to U.S. Export Controls - The Biden and Trump administrations have implemented stricter export controls, prompting Chinese companies to expedite their emergency plans for chip alternatives [1][4] - Nvidia and AMD are reportedly developing simplified AI chips that comply with U.S. regulations for the Chinese market, with Nvidia's new chip code-named "B20" [4][5] - The shift to domestic chips may involve significant time and labor costs, leading many companies to adopt a hybrid approach, using existing Nvidia chips for training while relying on domestic processors for inference [4][5] Group 2: Domestic Chip Development and Innovation - Chinese companies are increasingly investing in domestic chip innovation, with Huawei's Ascend chip being a notable example of this trend [2][4] - The Chinese market is witnessing a surge in demand for local alternatives, as companies like Baidu and Alibaba are actively developing their own AI models and processors [2][4] - Nvidia's CEO acknowledged that U.S. export restrictions could inadvertently drive Chinese firms to seek local solutions, narrowing the gap between U.S. and Chinese technology [5]

Core Viewpoint - The tightening of U.S. restrictions on China's semiconductor industry is expected to escalate, potentially leading to a complete ban on AI chips entering China, which will significantly impact companies like NVIDIA and ByteDance [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Restrictions on Semiconductor Exports - The U.S. government is preparing for significant new AI and export licensing restrictions against China, which may result in a total ban on all AI chips entering the country [1]. - NVIDIA's H20 and B20 chips, which are currently allowed in China, could be affected by these new restrictions, with NVIDIA projected to ship approximately 1 million H20 chips in 2024, generating over $12 billion in revenue [1]. - Following previous restrictions, NVIDIA has adjusted its product strategy by introducing downgraded versions of its chips for the Chinese market, including the H20, L20, and L2 [1][2]. Group 2: ByteDance's AI Chip Development Strategy - ByteDance is accelerating its self-developed AI chip strategy to reduce reliance on NVIDIA and enhance technological independence, planning to invest over $12 billion in AI infrastructure by 2025 [2]. - ByteDance was reported to be collaborating with Broadcom on a 5nm AI chip, which would comply with U.S. export restrictions, although the company has denied these reports [2][3]. - The collaboration with Broadcom is expected to significantly lower procurement costs and ensure a stable supply of high-end chips [2]. Group 3: Data Center Utilization and Future Challenges - ByteDance aims to utilize data centers in Southeast Asia to access NVIDIA chips, planning large-scale orders through leasing agreements to enhance its overseas AI capabilities [3][4]. - The company has already invested $8.8 billion in data centers in Thailand and is a significant customer of Malaysian data centers [4]. - New U.S. regulations are expected to close the loophole that allows Chinese companies to access high-performance chips through overseas data centers, further complicating their operations [5].

特朗普经济学的过去和未来 保时捷又选了位销售专家做中国 CEO 加州迪士尼乐园工会扫除罢工障碍 关注《晚点财经》并设为星标，第一时间获取每日商业精华。 特朗普经济学的过去和未来 拜登上周末宣布退出今年美国总统大选，在民主党选出自己候选人前，日本和韩国股市分别收跌 1.2% 和 1.1%，因为市场降低特朗普胜选预期，卖出可能受益于特朗普美国孤立主义的亚洲盟友们的 股票，在选情不确定的时候先获利了解。 围绕特朗普核心政策主张的交易也被叫做 "特朗普交易" —— 这些政策和特朗普之前做总统时候做成 的和打算做的差不多，核心依然是提高关税、驱逐移民以及减税。若成功实施对应的可能是进口成本 增加、工资上升以及经济过热所带来的加息。 共和党在特朗普右耳中弹前更新的执政纲领，也基本在承诺解决上面这些特朗普提出的标志性议题。 他们谴责 "对全球主义的盲目信仰"，并表示 "共和党必须回归其作为工业、制造业、基础设施和工人 党的根基"。 特朗普已明确计划对所有进口到美国商品征收 10% 关税、但对中国出口商品征 60%，他还威胁要对 中国公司在墨西哥生产的电动车征收 100% 进口关税，尽管美国 2018 年与墨西哥和加拿大达成 ...