面对这份疲软的就业报告，贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官Rick Rieder直言："这份报告提供了美联储9 月份调整利率所需的重要证据，因此唯一的问题是调整幅度将有多大。9月份降息50基点的可能性正在 不断增加——如果劳动力市场的疲软状况加剧，或者新增就业持续低于10万大关。" "虽然我愿意再等一个决策周期，但我不可能一直等下去，"戴利谈到上周美联储FOMC决定将短期借贷 成本维持在4.25%–4.50%基准利率区间而非降息时强调道。此前，两位联储同僚支持7月降息，美国总 统唐纳德·特朗普也一再要求美联储主席鲍威尔发起降息倡议，甚至建议美联储理事会直接接管控制 权。 这并不意味着美联储9月必然将降息，她补充道，"但我倾向于认为，从现在开始，每次货币政策会议都 是讨论政策调整的'活跃'会议。"戴利在接受采访时表示。 6 月公布的美联储利率点阵图展望显示，美联储决策者们曾普遍预计今年将降息两次，每次降息25 个基 点。戴利在采访中表示，这"看起来仍是合适的再校准幅度。是否一定要在9月和12月实施并不那么重 要，重要的是最终我们可能实施……实现两次降息的排列组合有很多"。 2027年美联储FOMC票委、旧金山联储主席 ...

智通财经APP获悉，2027年美联储FOMC票委、旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利在当地时间周一表示，鉴于越 来越多的迹象表明美国非农就业市场趋于疲软且未出现持续性的关税政策所驱动的通胀，美联储重启降 息的时机正在临近，并且预计今年更有可能的情况是需要美联储降息超过两次。 在立场向来偏鹰的戴利发布鸽派言论之前，堪称"雪崩式下滑"的极度疲软美国非农就业报告在上周五公 布后降息预期大幅升温。这份非农就业报告在公布仅仅7.3万人的7月份就业人数的同时，还意外下调了 5月和6月的就业数据，合计削减了高达25.8万个就业人数，下修幅度高达史无前例的90%。 利率期货市场定价显示交易员大举押注美联储降息周期重启，下个月美联储降息的概率接近90%——而 在非农公布前不足40%，且押注年底前至少降息两次，甚至押注9月与10月接连降息25基点，加之12月 降息25基点累计在年底前降息3次共75基点的利率期货交易员越来越多。 尽管如此，她表示，查看了一揽子劳动力市场仪表指标后，可以发现与去年相比，"证据一个接一个"地 显示劳动力市场明显走软。 "虽然我愿意再等一个决策周期，但我不可能一直等下去，"戴利谈到上周美联储FOMC决定将短期借贷 ...

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights rising concerns over "tariff-driven inflation" in the U.S. as President Trump pushes for new tariffs on EU goods, leading to increased inflation expectations in the bond market [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation Expectations - The 5-year breakeven inflation rate rose by 4 basis points to 2.53%, the highest level since February, surpassing the 2.5% threshold considered a warning sign for inflation risks [1]. - The 10-year and 30-year breakeven inflation rates also increased, with the 10-year rate reaching 2.43% and the 30-year rate at 2.37% [1]. - Despite rising inflation expectations, nominal yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries fell to 4.43% and below 5%, respectively, indicating investor concerns about potential economic slowdown [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of potential tariffs, U.S. stock markets reacted mildly, with the S&P 500 index nearly flat at 6,297.36 points, close to its historical high [3]. - The Nasdaq index increased by 0.05%, marking its 11th record close of the year at 20,895.66 points, while the Dow Jones index fell by over 100 points to 44,342.19 [3]. - In the bond market, the 2-year Treasury yield dropped to 3.88%, and the 10-year yield fell to 4.421%, both reaching their lowest levels of the year [3]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Considerations - The uncertainty surrounding inflation risks and the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook remains, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller expressing a desire to push for rate cuts in July [2]. - The key question is whether the current "tariff inflation" will be a temporary price fluctuation or evolve into long-term structural inflation pressure [2]. - Two uncertain factors could influence the Fed's decision on rate cuts: the effectiveness of stock market rebounds in stimulating consumer spending and the potential impact of Trump's immigration policies on the labor market [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll report is interpreted as a strong signal that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in July, leading to a rise in the dollar index after four consecutive days of decline [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. inflation rate for May is reported at 2.3%, down from 6.8% three years ago, while the unemployment rate for June stands at 4.1%, up from 3.5% three years ago, indicating increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve [2] - The U.S. GDP growth rate recorded a negative value of -0.5% in Q1 2025, a significant drop from previous values of 2.4% and 3.1%, suggesting a decline in economic vitality [3] Federal Reserve's Policy Considerations - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates is influenced by concerns over tariffs and their potential impact on inflation, as well as the need to avoid financing fiscal deficits through monetary policy [4] - The current U.S. national debt has reached $36.2 trillion, with about one-quarter of fiscal revenue allocated to interest payments, prompting the White House to advocate for interest rate cuts to reduce debt servicing costs [3] Political Pressures - The White House expresses dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged, with President Trump publicly calling for further rate cuts [3] - Potential successors to Fed Chair Powell, such as current Fed Governor Waller and Treasury Secretary Basant, have shown support for quicker rate cuts, indicating internal pressure within the Federal Reserve [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the mild increase in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which rose by only 0.1% for the month, resulting in an annual inflation rate of 2.1%, aligning with Dow Jones' previous forecast but 0.1 percentage points lower than the estimated annual inflation rate [3] - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, showed stable monthly and annual growth rates of 0.1% and 2.5% respectively, slightly below market expectations of 0.1% and 2.6%, indicating a further easing of inflationary pressures [3] - Economists express concerns about potential inflation risks triggered by tariffs, despite historical evidence suggesting limited direct impact of tariffs on inflation [3] Group 2 - The bond market reflects complex sentiments regarding long-term economic prospects, with the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield adjusting by 0.2 basis points to 3.937%, the 10-year yield nearly unchanged at 4.416%, and the 30-year yield rising by 0.6 basis points to 4.929% [3] - The gold futures market is currently showing a bullish trend, with prices trading around 771.80 yuan per gram, up by 0.98%, and reaching a high of 776.16 yuan per gram [1]