Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to perform positively in the fourth quarter, supported by favorable external conditions from overseas markets and resilient domestic consumption data during the recent holiday [1][2]. Group 1: Overseas Market Influence - The overall performance of overseas markets during the holiday has boosted investor sentiment in the A-share market, with private equity firms noting a positive emotional momentum [2]. - Factors such as the U.S. government shutdown, geopolitical developments, and record-high gold prices are seen as having a generally positive impact on the A-share market [2][3]. Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - The recent Golden Week holiday showcased strong consumer resilience, with impressive travel and consumption data, which adds warmth to the economic fundamentals [1][2]. - The stable release of domestic policies and economic data around the holiday is expected to lack major variables that could significantly impact the market [2]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Private equity firms are adopting a balanced approach to stock selection, emphasizing the importance of both aggressive and defensive strategies [4]. - Some firms are increasing their positions and optimizing their portfolios, anticipating a recovery in market sentiment post-holiday [4][5]. Group 4: Focus on Technology and Growth Sectors - The technology growth sector remains a focal point for many private equity firms, with expectations for significant opportunities in areas such as artificial intelligence and high-end manufacturing [5][6]. - The upcoming third-quarter earnings reports are anticipated to present opportunities for stocks that performed well [5][6]. Group 5: Market Trends and Opportunities - The market is expected to maintain its focus on key themes such as the internet, domestic semiconductor industry, and innovative pharmaceuticals [6]. - There is a belief that both technology growth and value stocks will perform well, with potential for revaluation in consumer and cyclical sectors [6][7].

随着国庆长假的落幕，A股市场于10月9日迎来四季度首个交易日。这个假期，全球金融市场并不平 静：海外股市普遍小幅走强，为A股提供了积极的外部环境；与此同时，国际金价历史性突破4000美元/ 盎司关口，彰显出全球资金的避险需求。国内层面，刚刚过去的黄金周展现消费韧性，出行人次与部分 核心消费场景的亮眼数据，为经济基本面注入暖意。在此背景下，私募人士普遍表示，海外市场走强与 国内积极因素叠加，有望共同支撑A股后市表现。 ● 本报记者 王辉 海外市场向好提振投资情绪 长假期间海外市场的整体表现，成为私募研判后市行情的重要依据。多家私募机构表示，海外市场的稳 健走势，为A股积累了积极的情绪动能。域秀资产研究总监许俊哲表示，外盘表现中规中矩，港股半导 体板块涨幅较好，对节后A股形成情绪上的支撑。他进一步分析，美国政府停摆、地缘局势进展及黄金 价格创历史新高等信息总体对A股影响偏正面，市场有望继续震荡上行。 星石投资副总经理方磊的观察更为细致，他认为长假前因避险情绪而走弱的A股交投情绪有望得到修 复。畅力资产董事长宝晓辉则从影响因素的结构性角度出发，表示外部变量十分重要。她认为，长假前 后国内政策与经济数据发布节奏相对平 ...

Core Insights - Global risk appetite has shown signs of recovery, creating a favorable macro environment for the A-share market post-holiday [1][3] - The focus during the holiday period was on resource and AI sectors, with significant developments in the AI industry expected to drive growth in technology stocks in October [2][4] Market Performance - During the holiday, global stock markets experienced a broad rally, with the US, European, and Japanese markets all posting gains; the Nikkei 225 index rose over 6% [2] - Precious metals saw strong price increases, with COMEX gold futures surpassing $4000 per ounce, marking a new historical high [2] Sector Trends - The AI industry is expanding from enterprise-level applications to consumer-level, indicating a potential surge in demand for hardware and applications [2][4] - Key sectors expected to perform well include AI computing, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, and high-end equipment manufacturing, as these areas are at a critical breakthrough point [4][5] Investment Outlook - Analysts predict a "red October" for A-shares, driven by positive liquidity and risk appetite, alongside the upcoming third-quarter earnings reports which may attract more investment [3][5] - The current market is expected to favor sectors with strong industrial trends and lower valuations, particularly in technology and resource safety [3][5]

■机构展望 全球大类资产风险偏好回暖 A股"红十月"行情可期 ◎记者 汪友若 10月9日，A股将迎来长假后的首个交易日。回顾长假期间，全球大类资产表现呈现显著的"风险偏好回 暖"与"再通胀交易"特征。 兴业证券称，受全球货币和财政双宽松政策预期的提振，长假期间全球风险资产表现亮眼，这为A股行 情演绎创造了积极的宏观环境。更重要的是，10月A股即将进入三季报交易窗口，这将带动资金聚焦景 气线索、凝聚新的共识，提供更多可挖掘的投资机会。 东吴证券表示，传统日历效应下，长假后市场多呈现"涨多跌少"的格局。且今年长假前2个交易日，市 场已出现资金提前博弈反弹的动作，因此后市指数层面需重视量价的配合情况。长假期间，内外部消息 面较积极，尤其是美联储降息预期升温、AI产业趋势催化显著，预计短期内市场风格或偏向具备产业 消息面催化、远期成长属性更强和估值更低的方向。 华金证券认为，长假前部分投资者担忧的地缘政治冲突、海外流动性收紧等风险事件并未发生。短期A 股流动性或维持充裕、风险偏好持续回暖，A股长假后有望延续震荡偏强的走势。 展望后市，券商研报的共识是，此次长假期间海外市场消息面偏积极，全球主要风险资产联动走强，美 股 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to perform positively after the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, supported by favorable external markets and domestic consumption recovery [1] Market Outlook: External Factors Boost Confidence - The overall positive performance of external markets during the holiday period creates a favorable environment for the A-share market [2] - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the semiconductor sector, has shown strong performance, providing emotional support for A-shares [2] - Improved trading sentiment is anticipated as global asset classes have generally risen, reducing uncertainties affecting Chinese assets [2] - Domestic macroeconomic stability and high service consumption during the holiday are expected to attract risk-averse funds back to the A-share market [2] - Collaborations in the tech sector, such as OpenAI and AMD, may catalyze related A-share sectors like computing power and AI applications [2] Strategic Response: Balanced and Selective Investment - Multiple private equity firms emphasize the importance of balanced allocation and selective stock picking in the upcoming trading period [3] - A proactive investment strategy is recommended, with an increase in positions and optimization of portfolios, as historical data suggests a recovery in A-share sentiment post-holiday [3] - The trend of household savings flowing into equity markets is expected to continue, indicating significant long-term upside potential for A-shares [3] - A combination of high-position operations and balanced holdings is advised, focusing on technology growth and high-end manufacturing while also including low P/B and high dividend assets for risk mitigation [3] Investment Themes: Consensus on Tech Growth - The technology growth sector is unanimously favored by five private equity firms, alongside opportunities in consumer recovery and undervalued sectors [5] - Continued optimism for technology stocks is noted, particularly in computing power, storage, and AI infrastructure-related sectors [5] - The upcoming third-quarter earnings reports are expected to present opportunities for well-performing sectors [5] - Specific areas of interest include internet giants, domestic semiconductor supply chains, and innovative pharmaceuticals [5] - Focus areas post-holiday include AI, humanoid robotics, high-end manufacturing, and potential recovery in financial and cyclical sectors [5] - Market style is expected to become more balanced, with investment opportunities across various asset classes, including technology, consumer, and cyclical sectors [5] Key Sectors of Interest - Emphasis on graphics processors and humanoid robotics, along with identifying oversold weight sectors for investment [6]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 趣时资产认为，假期期间OpenAI和AMD重磅合作、视频生成模型Sora 2发布，或对A股算力、人工智能 应用等相关板块形成催化。 策略应对：攻守兼备布局后市 面对即将开启的十月交易，多家私募均提到了均衡配置与精选个股的重要性。 畅力资产董事长宝晓辉表示，将采取积极进攻的投资策略，适度增加仓位，优化组合。从历史数据可以 看到，国庆假期之后A股往往出现资金回流、情绪回暖，适合积极布局。 许俊哲透露，假期前该机构已重仓持股过节。居民储蓄向权益市场流入的趋势具备长期持续性，从目前 来看，A股中长期上涨空间较大。 国庆、中秋双节假期步入尾声，A股市场10月行情即将拉开大幕。节后A股行情将如何演绎？投资者应 如何布局？多家一线私募机构最新观点显示，私募行业普遍对节后A股表现持乐观预期，认为外围市场 向好与国内消费复苏将为行情提供支撑，同时看好市场结构性机会，科技成长仍是核心关注方向。 市场展望：外围向好提振信心 综合多家私募观点，假期外围市场整体向好，为A股节后开盘营造良好的外部环境。 域秀资产研究总监许俊哲表示，外盘表现中规中矩，港股市场表现突 ...