豆油2601

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宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250825
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 03:08
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes the price trends and core logics of different agricultural commodity futures, including short - term, medium - term, and intraday views [5][6][7]. - For different futures varieties, the core logics are affected by multiple factors such as international policies, supply and demand, and inventory [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - **View** - Intraday view: Oscillating weakly; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Reference view: Oscillating weakly [5]. - **Core Logic** - Optimistic signals from China - US negotiations have led to a slight decline in the high premium of Brazilian soybeans. But before the substantial improvement of US soybean exports, the high - premium pattern of Brazilian soybeans is hard to change, providing cost support for domestic soybean meal. The far - month contracts still have dual support of supply and cost, and the short - term futures price fluctuates at a high level [5]. 3.2. Palm Oil (P) - **View** - Intraday view: Oscillating strongly; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Reference view: Oscillating strongly [7]. - **Core Logic** - The positive expectations of the Southeast Asian palm oil industry chain support the palm oil futures price. Affected by emotional fluctuations, the futures price fluctuates at a high level with strong support below. After continuous short - term rises, short - term capital closing positions cause the futures price to fluctuate at a high level, but the overall strong trend remains [7]. 3.3. Other Contracts - **Soybean Meal 2601**: Short - term and medium - term oscillating, intraday and reference view oscillating weakly, affected by import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [6]. - **Soybean Oil 2601**: Short - term strong, medium - term oscillating, intraday and reference view oscillating strongly, influenced by US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6]. - **Palm 2601**: Short - term and intraday strong, medium - term oscillating, reference view oscillating strongly, affected by biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6].