Core Viewpoint - The U.S. steel industry is currently experiencing a tight supply situation driven by tariff policies, leading to a short-term maintenance of high steel prices and a potential long-term upward shift in price levels [1][3]. Supply - The U.S. is the only major market globally with a tight supply and high reliance on imports, with an estimated net import volume accounting for about 20% of consumption in 2024, making it the largest net importer [3][21]. - The U.S. steel supply is characterized by a high proportion of electric arc furnace (EAF) steel, with around 70% of crude steel production coming from EAFs, significantly higher than the global average of 30% [3][5]. - Approximately 7 million tons of crude steel capacity is expected to be released in the medium term, primarily from EAFs, which may partially replace imports and maintain a healthy and flexible supply [3][19]. Demand - The automotive sector represents a significant portion of U.S. steel demand, with an estimated consumption of 89 million tons in 2024, where construction, automotive, and machinery account for approximately 44%, 28%, and 9% respectively [4][33]. - Policy-driven improvements in demand are anticipated, particularly in non-residential construction and automotive sectors, due to tariffs on imported vehicles and increased domestic production [4][39]. Price - U.S. hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices have increased by 35% since the beginning of 2025, reaching $900 per ton, with expectations of maintaining high prices in the short term due to tariff impacts [1][42]. - The price of U.S. steel is influenced by trade protection policies, with a potential for upward movement in the long term as EAF production increases and the supply of quality scrap steel becomes a critical resource [47][48]. Industry Dynamics - The U.S. steel industry has undergone significant consolidation, with the top four companies controlling over 80% of the market share, a trend that has intensified since 2000 [5][15]. - The recent acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel is expected to have profound implications for all stakeholders involved, including potential improvements in competitiveness and market share for U.S. Steel [48][49].

Group 1: Pharmaceutical Industry - The Trump administration is threatening to impose a 200% tariff on imported pharmaceuticals, with a timeline for companies to adjust of about one to one and a half years [2][3] - The Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA) opposes the tariffs, stating that every dollar spent on tariffs cannot be invested in U.S. manufacturing or future treatments [3] - Analysts believe that the announcement may have a positive impact on the pharmaceutical sector, as the tariffs are not expected to be implemented immediately and their future enforcement remains uncertain [2] Group 2: Copper Industry - Trump is considering a 50% additional tax on imported copper, although no specific implementation date has been provided [3][4] - Following the tariff announcement, copper prices surged over 10%, reaching a historical high in the New York market, with futures rising 13.12%, marking the largest single-day increase since 1989 [3][4] - The U.S. relies heavily on copper imports, with nearly half of its copper supply coming from abroad, primarily from Chile [4]

Core Insights - The linkage between the Korean won and the Chinese yuan is becoming increasingly tight, with fluctuations in the yuan likely to impact the won, especially during periods of global uncertainty caused by trade wars [1][2] - Since 2018, the correlation between the won and yuan has averaged around 0.6, with notable periods of increased correlation during the U.S.-China trade tensions and the aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve [1] - The sensitivity of the won to the yuan may increase if former President Trump implements stricter trade protection policies during a potential second term, complicating Korea's monetary policy and foreign exchange risk management [1] Exchange Rate Dynamics - The research indicates an asymmetric relationship in the exchange rate linkage, where the correlation strengthens during periods of won depreciation and weakens during won appreciation [2] - Factors contributing to this imbalance include joint depreciation against the U.S. dollar and competition in export markets between China and South Korea [2] - On the day of the report, the won appreciated over 1% against the U.S. dollar, while the offshore yuan saw a slight increase of 0.15% [2]

中美经贸高层会谈发表联合声明。当地时间5月10日-11日，中美经贸高层会谈在 瑞士日内瓦开始举行。中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰当地时间11日 晚在出席中方代表团举行的新闻发布会时表示，此次中美经贸高层会谈坦诚、深 入、具有建设性，达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展。双方一致同意建立中美经 贸磋商机制。5月12日，中美双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，大幅降 低双边关税水平。 关税水平回落至4月2日前。根据双方发布的声明，美国将：1.修改2025年4月2 日第14257号行政令中规定的对中国商品(包括香港特别行政区和澳门特别行政 区商品)加征的从价关税,其中,24%的关税在初始的90天内暂停实施,同时保留按 该行政令的规定对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税；2.取消根据2025年4月8日第 14259号行政令和2025年4月9日第14266号行政令对这些商品的加征关税。作 为对等回应，中国将：1.相应修改税委会公告2025年第4号规定的对美国商品加 征的从价关税,其中,24%的关税在初始的90天内暂停实施,同时保留对这些商品 加征剩余10%的关税,并取消根据税委会公告2025年第5号和第6号对这些商品的 ...

Group 1 - The World Bank held its 111th Development Committee meeting in Washington, approving the report titled "Jobs: The Path to Prosperity," emphasizing the importance of job creation for developing countries to escape poverty and achieve shared prosperity [1] - The Chinese Finance Minister highlighted the risks posed by trade protectionism to global poverty reduction and development, urging international organizations to advocate for non-discrimination and free trade principles [1] - A significant number of countries, including Japan, Germany, the UK, and South Africa, engaged in discussions with China, indicating a growing coalition against U.S. tariff policies [3] Group 2 - Azerbaijan's President Aliyev visited China from April 22 to 24, marking a significant step in the healthy and rapid development of China-Azerbaijan relations, which have been built on strong political mutual trust over the past 30 years [4] - The visit is seen as strategically important for deepening bilateral relations, with Azerbaijan firmly supporting the One China principle [4] Group 3 - Japan's Liberal Democratic Party Secretary-General Mori Yasuhiro led a bipartisan delegation to China, emphasizing the importance of cooperation to resolve outstanding issues between the two nations [6] - U.S. media have criticized President Trump's handling of tariffs, suggesting he is showing signs of weakness in the ongoing trade war with China, acknowledging that high tariffs are unsustainable [6][8] - Trump indicated a willingness to negotiate lower tariffs with China, although he maintains that tariffs will not be eliminated entirely, reflecting the pressure on the U.S. economy [8]