此次是特朗普时隔将近五个月再次发出征收100%电影关税的威胁。和上次一样，特朗普这次也未明确 关税的具体实施时间和方式，且未说明，将使用何种法律权限来征收这一针对服务业而非商品的关税。 本文来自：华尔街见闻，作者：李丹，原文标题：《贸易战打到文化战：特朗普威胁对海外制片征 100%关税，好莱坞懵了》，题图来自：视觉中国 美国总统特朗普再次威胁要将贸易保护政策扩展至文化产业，这一政策若实施将挑战好莱坞的全球化商 业模式。 据央视新闻，当地时间9月29日周一，特朗普在社交媒体"真实社交"上发文表示，美国的电影制作业"被 其他国家从美国偷走了"，就像"从婴儿手里偷糖果"一样。特朗普称，加州州长"软弱无能"，遭受的打 击尤其严重。为了解决这个"长期存在且永无止境"的问题，将对所有在美国境外制作的电影征收100% 关税。 市场对这一威胁反应分化。周一美股早盘，AMC院线（AMC）一度涨逾6.2%，迪士尼（DIS）曾涨近 1.2%，奈飞（NFLX）盘初下跌1.9%后转涨，而华纳兄弟探索（WBD）曾跌2.1%。 分析认为，特朗普未经测试的政策面临诸多执行难题。投资者对特朗普实施该关税的法律权限和执行方 式存疑。白宫未立即回 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. steel industry is currently experiencing a tight supply situation driven by tariff policies, leading to a short-term maintenance of high steel prices and a potential long-term upward shift in price levels [1][3]. Supply - The U.S. is the only major market globally with a tight supply and high reliance on imports, with an estimated net import volume accounting for about 20% of consumption in 2024, making it the largest net importer [3][21]. - The U.S. steel supply is characterized by a high proportion of electric arc furnace (EAF) steel, with around 70% of crude steel production coming from EAFs, significantly higher than the global average of 30% [3][5]. - Approximately 7 million tons of crude steel capacity is expected to be released in the medium term, primarily from EAFs, which may partially replace imports and maintain a healthy and flexible supply [3][19]. Demand - The automotive sector represents a significant portion of U.S. steel demand, with an estimated consumption of 89 million tons in 2024, where construction, automotive, and machinery account for approximately 44%, 28%, and 9% respectively [4][33]. - Policy-driven improvements in demand are anticipated, particularly in non-residential construction and automotive sectors, due to tariffs on imported vehicles and increased domestic production [4][39]. Price - U.S. hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices have increased by 35% since the beginning of 2025, reaching $900 per ton, with expectations of maintaining high prices in the short term due to tariff impacts [1][42]. - The price of U.S. steel is influenced by trade protection policies, with a potential for upward movement in the long term as EAF production increases and the supply of quality scrap steel becomes a critical resource [47][48]. Industry Dynamics - The U.S. steel industry has undergone significant consolidation, with the top four companies controlling over 80% of the market share, a trend that has intensified since 2000 [5][15]. - The recent acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel is expected to have profound implications for all stakeholders involved, including potential improvements in competitiveness and market share for U.S. Steel [48][49].

Group 1: Pharmaceutical Industry - The Trump administration is threatening to impose a 200% tariff on imported pharmaceuticals, with a timeline for companies to adjust of about one to one and a half years [2][3] - The Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA) opposes the tariffs, stating that every dollar spent on tariffs cannot be invested in U.S. manufacturing or future treatments [3] - Analysts believe that the announcement may have a positive impact on the pharmaceutical sector, as the tariffs are not expected to be implemented immediately and their future enforcement remains uncertain [2] Group 2: Copper Industry - Trump is considering a 50% additional tax on imported copper, although no specific implementation date has been provided [3][4] - Following the tariff announcement, copper prices surged over 10%, reaching a historical high in the New York market, with futures rising 13.12%, marking the largest single-day increase since 1989 [3][4] - The U.S. relies heavily on copper imports, with nearly half of its copper supply coming from abroad, primarily from Chile [4]

Core Insights - The linkage between the Korean won and the Chinese yuan is becoming increasingly tight, with fluctuations in the yuan likely to impact the won, especially during periods of global uncertainty caused by trade wars [1][2] - Since 2018, the correlation between the won and yuan has averaged around 0.6, with notable periods of increased correlation during the U.S.-China trade tensions and the aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve [1] - The sensitivity of the won to the yuan may increase if former President Trump implements stricter trade protection policies during a potential second term, complicating Korea's monetary policy and foreign exchange risk management [1] Exchange Rate Dynamics - The research indicates an asymmetric relationship in the exchange rate linkage, where the correlation strengthens during periods of won depreciation and weakens during won appreciation [2] - Factors contributing to this imbalance include joint depreciation against the U.S. dollar and competition in export markets between China and South Korea [2] - On the day of the report, the won appreciated over 1% against the U.S. dollar, while the offshore yuan saw a slight increase of 0.15% [2]

Core Viewpoints - The recent high-level economic and trade talks between China and the US in Geneva resulted in a constructive agreement, with both sides committing to establish a consultation mechanism and significantly reducing bilateral tariff levels [1][2][3]. Tariff Adjustments - The US will modify tariffs on Chinese goods, including a 24% tariff that will be suspended for the first 90 days, while retaining a 10% tariff. Additionally, tariffs imposed under two other executive orders will be canceled. In response, China will similarly suspend a 24% tariff on US goods for 90 days and cancel other tariffs [2]. Pragmatic Approach - The report indicates that both countries are returning to a pragmatic approach in trade negotiations, with the US showing signs of easing trade protection policies due to internal economic pressures, including a significant debt maturity in June 2025 [3][4]. Future Negotiation Progress - Both parties will establish a mechanism for ongoing negotiations regarding economic and trade relations, with representatives from both sides set to engage in further discussions. Historical context suggests that multiple rounds of negotiations may be necessary to resolve outstanding issues [4]. Export Market Diversification - Data from the General Administration of Customs indicates that China's exports to countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative increased by 7.2% year-on-year in Q1, while exports to the US decreased by approximately 21% in April. This reflects a declining dependency on the US market and a shift towards a more diversified export strategy [5].

Group 1 - The World Bank held its 111th Development Committee meeting in Washington, approving the report titled "Jobs: The Path to Prosperity," emphasizing the importance of job creation for developing countries to escape poverty and achieve shared prosperity [1] - The Chinese Finance Minister highlighted the risks posed by trade protectionism to global poverty reduction and development, urging international organizations to advocate for non-discrimination and free trade principles [1] - A significant number of countries, including Japan, Germany, the UK, and South Africa, engaged in discussions with China, indicating a growing coalition against U.S. tariff policies [3] Group 2 - Azerbaijan's President Aliyev visited China from April 22 to 24, marking a significant step in the healthy and rapid development of China-Azerbaijan relations, which have been built on strong political mutual trust over the past 30 years [4] - The visit is seen as strategically important for deepening bilateral relations, with Azerbaijan firmly supporting the One China principle [4] Group 3 - Japan's Liberal Democratic Party Secretary-General Mori Yasuhiro led a bipartisan delegation to China, emphasizing the importance of cooperation to resolve outstanding issues between the two nations [6] - U.S. media have criticized President Trump's handling of tariffs, suggesting he is showing signs of weakness in the ongoing trade war with China, acknowledging that high tariffs are unsustainable [6][8] - Trump indicated a willingness to negotiate lower tariffs with China, although he maintains that tariffs will not be eliminated entirely, reflecting the pressure on the U.S. economy [8]

Core Viewpoint - ABB is expanding its production investment in the U.S. in response to Trump's tariff policies, raising questions about the actual effects of U.S. trade protectionism on global supply chains [1][5]. Group 1: ABB's Investment Strategy - ABB plans to increase its local production ratio in the U.S. to over 90% through a combination of organic investment and acquisitions [3]. - Currently, 75%-80% of ABB's sales in the U.S. rely on domestic production, with a total investment of approximately $500 million (about 3.7 billion RMB) over the past three years for factory expansions [3]. - Recent investments include a $40 million (about 290 million RMB) expansion in Senatobia, Mississippi, creating 122 technical jobs and doubling production capacity, and an $80 million (about 580 million RMB) new factory in Selmer, Tennessee, focused on power distribution equipment [3][5]. Group 2: Industry Context and Reactions - Other companies, such as Honda and Novartis, are also increasing their U.S. production to mitigate tariff risks, with Honda planning a 30% increase in U.S. auto production and Novartis investing $23 billion (about 161 billion RMB) [5]. - ABB's CEO emphasized the need to reduce import dependence in the U.S. market, aligning with the Trump administration's goals to boost domestic manufacturing and employment [5]. - The Mississippi Development Authority supports ABB through tax incentive programs, highlighting the state's attractive business environment [5]. Group 3: Market Concerns and Economic Impact - Despite ABB's investments being seen as a short-term success of tariff policies, there are concerns about the long-term sustainability of these strategies [7]. - Analysts express worries that rising costs due to tariffs may squeeze corporate profits, and that mergers and acquisitions could increase financial risks [7]. - The local economy has benefited from ABB's investments, with new jobs contributing to community stability, although actual job creation may fall short of initial promises [7][9].