珀莱雅 603605.SH 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 站在新发展阶段的多品牌美妆龙头 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们维持对公司的盈利预测，预计公司 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 4.56、5.36 和 6.06 元，DCF 目标估值 112.78 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、终端消费需求减弱、新品拓展不及预期等 行业竞争加剧、终端消费需求减弱、新品拓展不及预期等 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 8,905 | 10,778 | 12,339 | 14,072 | 15,577 | | 同比增长 (%) | 39.5% | 21.0% | 14.5% | 14.0% | 10.7% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1,503 | 1,890 | 2,200 | 2,584 | 2,923 | | 同比增长 (%) | 42.1% | 25.8% | 16.4% | 17.5% | 13.1% | | 归 ...

珀莱雅 603605.SH 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 站在新发展阶段的多品牌美妆龙头 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们维持对公司的盈利预测，预计公司 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 4.56、5.36 和 6.06 元，DCF 目标估值 112.78 元，维持"买入"评级。 行业竞争加剧、终端消费需求减弱、新品拓展不及预期等 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 8,905 | 10,778 | 12,339 | 14,072 | 15,577 | | 同比增长 (%) | 39.5% | 21.0% | 14.5% | 14.0% | 10.7% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1,503 | 1,890 | 2,200 | 2,584 | 2,923 | | 同比增长 (%) | 42.1% | 25.8% | 16.4% | 17.5% | 13.1% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 1,194 | 1,552 | ...

商贸零售 商贸零售 2025 年 06 月 08 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -17% 0% 17% 34% 50% 67% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究报告 《老铺黄金、潮宏基发布新品，关注 差 异 化 产 品 力 优 势 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.6.2 《医美化妆品 4 月月报：华熙生物两 款三类械抗衰产品获批，关注 618 国 货美妆表现 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.5.25 《2025 年 4 月社零+5.1%，期待消费 回 暖 趋 势 继 续 维 持 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.5.25 高端中式黄金品牌"琳朝珠宝"获得天使轮投资 ——行业周报 | 黄泽鹏（分析师） | 陈思（联系人） | | --- | --- | | huangzepeng@kysec.cn | chensi@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790519110001 | 证书编号：S0790124070031 | chensi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124070031 琳朝珠宝获日初资本天使轮 ...

数据来源：聚源 -29% -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 58% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究报告 《"美团闪购"品牌独立，即时零售模 式加速发展—行业周报》-2025.4.20 《医美化妆品 3 月月报：锦波生物首 个胶原蛋白填充三类械获批，关注"情 绪消费"主线下的美妆机遇—行业点 评报告》-2025.4.19 《2025 年 3 月社零同比+5.9%，期待 后续消费潜力释放—行业点评报告》 -2025.4.16 年报一季报陆续披露，关注高景气板块优质公司 商贸零售 商贸零售 2025 年 04 月 27 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 ——行业周报 | 黄泽鹏（分析师） | 陈思（联系人） | | --- | --- | | huangzepeng@kysec.cn | chensi@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790519110001 | 证书编号：S0790124070031 | chensi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124070031 年报一季报陆续披露，关注高景气板块优质公司 上市公司陆续披露 2024 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company reported strong performance in Q1 2025 with a revenue of 2.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.13%, and a net profit of 390 million yuan, up 28.87% year-on-year [1][2] - The gross margin for 2024 was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a decrease in freight rates [2] - The main brand continues to innovate with new product launches, contributing to a revenue of 8.58 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.55% [3][4] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 10.78 billion yuan, representing a 21.04% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 1.55 billion yuan, up 30.00% year-on-year [1][4] - The company expects revenues for 2025-2027 to be 12.47 billion yuan, 14.16 billion yuan, and 15.95 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.81 billion yuan, 2.09 billion yuan, and 2.40 billion yuan [4][5] - The EBITDA for 2024 is projected at 2.27 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 21.04% [4] Product Development - The main brand is in a stable transformation phase, continuously enhancing its product matrix with new launches such as the "Super Membrane Powder Tube" and "Optical Water Emulsion" [4] - The small brand "OR" showed remarkable growth with a revenue increase of 71.14% year-on-year, reaching 368 million yuan [3][4] Market Position - The company is solidifying its position as a leading domestic beauty brand, with a focus on expanding its product offerings and market share [4][5] - The sales expense ratio for 2024 was 47.88%, reflecting an increase of 3.27 percentage points year-on-year, while the management expense ratio decreased by 1.72 percentage points [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company has shown strong performance in its financial results, with a 2024 revenue of 10.778 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.04%, and a net profit of 1.552 billion yuan, up 30.00% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin has improved, reaching 71.39% in 2024, an increase of 1.46 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin increased to 14.40%, up 0.99 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The main brand continues to innovate with new product launches, contributing to a revenue of 8.581 billion yuan in 2024, a 19.55% increase year-on-year [3] Financial Performance Summary - 2024 revenue: 10.778 billion yuan, up 21.04% year-on-year [1] - 2024 net profit: 1.552 billion yuan, up 30.00% year-on-year [1] - 2025 Q1 revenue: 2.359 billion yuan, up 8.13% year-on-year [1] - 2024 gross margin: 71.39%, up 1.46 percentage points year-on-year [2] - 2024 net profit margin: 14.40%, up 0.99 percentage points year-on-year [2] Product Development and Market Position - The main brand has launched several new products, including the upgraded Ruby and Energy series, enhancing its anti-aging product matrix [3] - The small brand OR has shown remarkable growth with a revenue increase of 71.14% year-on-year, reaching 368 million yuan [3] - The company is expected to maintain its growth trend and increase market share through a solid product strategy [4] Financial Forecast - Expected revenue for 2025-2027: 12.466 billion yuan, 14.159 billion yuan, and 15.953 billion yuan respectively [4] - Expected net profit for 2025-2027: 1.807 billion yuan, 2.095 billion yuan, and 2.402 billion yuan respectively [4] - Corresponding P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are projected at 19x, 16x, and 14x respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a Q1 2025 net profit of 3.90 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.9%, exceeding expectations. The revenue for Q1 2025 was 23.59 billion yuan, up 8.1% year-on-year. The company maintains a strong position as a leading domestic beauty brand, with a reasonable valuation and potential for growth from new product launches [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 107.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.0%, and a net profit of 15.52 billion yuan, up 30.0%. For Q1 2025, the revenue was 23.59 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.90 billion yuan [6][9]. - The company's revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 124.99 billion yuan, 141.47 billion yuan, and 156.72 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 18.63 billion yuan, 21.68 billion yuan, and 24.54 billion yuan [6][9]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 71.4%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points, and for Q1 2025, it was 72.8%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points [7]. Brand and Product Development - The company is accelerating the launch of new products, with several new series introduced in late 2024 and early 2025, including the optical bottle series and various skincare products. The brand has also engaged high-profile endorsements to enhance its marketing efforts [8][6].