Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The ultra - long - term credit bond market has strong supply and demand in the primary market, and the issuance scale in 2025 may exceed 1 trillion yuan. The secondary market trading volume has increased significantly, but the buying sentiment has room for repair. It is recommended to pay attention to the allocation and trading opportunities of ultra - long - term credit bonds [2][8][48] - According to the credit spread percentile, the compression degree of the ultra - long - term credit bond spread is not as low as last year. The low - valuation transaction volume and TKN volume in the secondary market have rebounded, but the bullish sentiment in the bond market has declined, indicating that the buying sentiment has room for repair. The "asset shortage" may drive the market to long - duration assets [2][48] - The allocation value of ultra - long - term credit bonds is ranked as 15Y>20Y>10Y>30Y. Some issuers of industrial bonds, urban investment bonds, and bank secondary capital bonds are recommended for investors' reference [3][50][56] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Increment and Stock of Ultra - long - term Credit Bonds 1.1 Increment: Strong Supply and Demand in Primary New Issuance - Supply side: Since early 2023, the issuance interest rate of credit bonds has been in a downward channel, and the issuance cost has decreased, which has attracted more issuers. The issuance scale in 2024 was 1.21 trillion yuan, and the issuance in the second half of the year is usually faster. The issuance scale in 2025 may exceed 1 trillion yuan [7][8] - Demand side: Since early 2021, the primary subscription multiple of ultra - long - term credit bonds has shown an overall upward trend. From late 2023 to July 2024, the subscription multiple increased steeply; from August 2024 to Q1 2025, it decreased rapidly; since April 2025, it has rebounded [10][12][13] 1.2 Stock: Analysis from Different Perspectives - By original issuance term: 10Y and 15Y are the mainstream issuance terms. The balance of bonds with a term of ≥20Y accounts for less than 10% of the total [15] - By implied rating: High - rated bonds account for a high proportion, with AAA -, AAA, and AAA+ bonds accounting for 81% of the total [16] - By bond type: Medium - term notes, bank capital bonds, and corporate bonds have the highest stock balances, accounting for 96% of the total [18] - By industry distribution: The stock scale of industrial bonds>bank secondary capital bonds>urban investment bonds. The weighted average exercise valuations of urban investment, comprehensive, and non - bank finance industries are relatively high [21] 2. Fluctuations in Secondary Trading of Ultra - long - term Credit Bonds 2.1 Significant Increase in Secondary Trading Volume This Year - Since early 2024, the primary market of ultra - long - term credit bonds has expanded significantly, and the secondary market activity has increased. In mid - June 2025, the weekly trading volume reached a peak [24] 2.2 Changes in Buying Sentiment - Since February 2025, the buying sentiment of ultra - long - term credit bonds has been continuously boosted, and the monthly TKN ratio of industrial bonds, bank secondary capital bonds, and urban investment bonds has remained above 62% [25] - Since February 2025, the proportion of low - valuation transactions has rebounded but has not reached the high point of last July. In the first half of 2025, the low - valuation transaction deviation of ultra - long - term industrial bonds, urban investment bonds, and bank perpetual bonds has narrowed compared with the same period last year [30][31] 3. Who Buys Ultra - long - term Credit Bonds? - Banks have been net sellers of ultra - long - term credit bonds since 2025, mainly due to underwriting and regulatory restrictions [37] - Insurance companies, wealth management subsidiaries, and wealth management products are the main allocation funds for ultra - long - term credit bonds this year. Insurance companies show a "buy low, sell high" strategy, and wealth management products have strong allocation attributes [37][39] - Fund companies and products have stronger trading attributes. They were net sellers during the bond market adjustment in Q1 2025 and have significantly increased their allocation since March [39] 4. Investment Recommendations - Based on the credit spread and secondary market trading sentiment, it is recommended to pay attention to the allocation and trading opportunities of ultra - long - term credit bonds [48] - The allocation value of ultra - long - term credit bonds is ranked as 15Y>20Y>10Y>30Y [50] - Some issuers of industrial bonds, urban investment bonds, and bank secondary capital bonds are recommended, such as Chengtong Holdings, Shenzhen Metro, etc. [56]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint Last week, the sentiment in the bond market weakened. The bond market sentiment index, diffusion index, and some other indicators showed declines, while certain turnover rates and configuration forces also changed [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Bond Market Sentiment - The bond market sentiment index last week was 113.3, down 0.9 from the previous value; the bond market sentiment diffusion index was 42.4%, down 10.5 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 2. Institutional Duration - The fund duration on the last Friday was 2.17 years, unchanged from the previous Friday; the rural commercial bank duration was 2.84 years, up 0.02 years from the previous Friday; the insurance duration was 6.74 years, down 0.03 years from the previous Friday [1]. 3. Leverage Ratio - The balance of pledged repurchase last week was 10.6 trillion yuan, down 0.4 trillion yuan from the previous value; the net lending balance of large - scale banks was 3.1 trillion yuan, down 0.7 trillion yuan from the previous value; the bond market leverage ratio was 103.4%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous value [1]. 4. Secondary Trading - In terms of turnover rate last week, the 30Y Treasury bond turnover rate was 1.9%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous value; the 10Y Treasury bond turnover rate was 1.0%, unchanged from the previous value; the 10Y China Development Bank bond turnover rate was 29.3%, down 2.6 percentage points from the previous value; the ultra - long - term credit bond turnover rate was 0.47%, up 0.07 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 5. Allocation Power - The newly issued share of bond funds last week was 6.3 billion yuan, down 12.9 billion yuan from the previous value; the stock market risk premium was 1.36%, down 0.03 percentage points from the previous value; the US dollar index was 99.8, down 1.3 from the previous value [2]. 6. First - level Subscription - The full - field multiple of Treasury bonds last week dropped 0.2 times to 3.0 times; the full - field multiple of local bonds dropped 2.1 times to 21.0 times; the full - field multiple of China Development Bank bonds rose 0.1 times to 3.1 times [3]. 7. Relative Valuation - Last week, the spread between 10 - year China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds narrowed 3.3bp to - 0.2bp; the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds narrowed 3.5bp to 17.1bp; the spread between old and new 10 - year China Development Bank bonds narrowed 0.3bp to 3.2bp; the spread between 10 - year local bonds and Treasury bonds narrowed 3.4bp to 15.1bp [3].