Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Beer demonstrated steady growth in the first half of 2025, benefiting from cost advantages and maintaining its leading position in the industry [1] Industry Summary - In the first half of 2025, the domestic beer industry saw a total production of 19.04 million tons, a slight decline of 0.3% year-on-year [1] - Despite the overall industry stability, Qingdao Beer achieved a sales increase [1] Company Summary - In the first half of 2025, Qingdao Beer’s main brand achieved product sales of 2.713 million tons, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.9% [1] - Sales of mid-to-high-end products reached 1.992 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [1] - The classic series, Qingdao White Beer, high-end fresh 1L aluminum bottles, and ultra-high-end products all maintained steady growth in sales [1] - The company continues to strengthen its market position across all channels, with emerging channels leading the industry [1] - The instant retail business has experienced rapid growth in transaction volume for five consecutive years [1] - The company’s leading position in the industry remains solid, with a projected dividend yield of 3.52% for 2025, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next six months [7][14]. Core Insights - The company reported a steady growth in performance, with revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items for the first half of 2025 reaching 20.49 billion, 3.90 billion, and 3.63 billion yuan respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 2.11%, 7.21%, and 5.99% [4]. - The gross margin and net profit margin for the first half of 2025 were 43.7% and 19.05%, showing improvements of 2.09 and 0.91 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company has effectively controlled its expenses, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios remaining stable [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 10.05 billion, 2.19 billion, and 2.03 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 1.28%, 7.32%, and 6.02% respectively [5]. - The company’s sales volume for the first half of 2025 was 4.732 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.20%, with an average price of 4,330 yuan per ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.09% [5]. - The domestic beer industry saw a slight decline in production, but the company managed to grow its sales volume, particularly in mid-to-high-end products [6]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 32.94 billion, 33.71 billion, and 34.47 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.50%, 2.32%, and 2.25% respectively [7][10]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is 4.86 billion, 5.32 billion, and 5.76 billion yuan, with growth rates of 11.88%, 9.46%, and 8.19% [7][10]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 3.56, 3.90, and 4.22 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 19, 18, and 16 [7][10].

Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a product sales volume of 4.732 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [1] - The revenue for the same period was 20.491 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 2.1% compared to the previous year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.904 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.21% [2] Product and Brand Strategy - The company continued to implement its brand strategy of "Qingdao Beer main brand + Laoshan Beer as a national second brand," focusing on sports and music marketing to enhance brand promotion [3] - The sales volume of the main brand reached 2.713 million kiloliters, with a growth of 3.9%, while the sales of mid-to-high-end products were 1.992 million kiloliters, up by 5.1% [3] Industry Context - The beer industry is currently undergoing a contraction phase, with a reported decline of 0.3% in production among major beer enterprises in China during the first half of 2025 [3] - In response to industry challenges, the company has accelerated product innovation, launching several new products such as "light dry, cherry-flavored white beer, hazy IPA, and whole wheat national trend" [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer, with a target price of 90 CNY and 70 HKD [1][5]. Core Views - Qingdao Beer has shown stable growth against the market trend, with a revenue increase of 2.1% year-on-year to 20.49 billion CNY in H1 2025 and a net profit increase of 7.2% to 3.90 billion CNY [1][5]. - The company is focusing on product structure upgrades, with a notable increase in sales of mid-to-high-end products, contributing to a positive revenue outlook [5][6]. - Cost advantages are being realized, leading to an increase in gross margin to 45.8%, up 3.0 percentage points year-on-year [5][6]. - The new management team is expected to drive the company's high-end product strategy, with a focus on expanding sales channels and introducing innovative products [5][6]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the projected total revenue is 33.16 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [1][6]. - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 4.73 billion CNY, reflecting an 8.9% increase compared to the previous year [1][6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 3.47 CNY for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20 [1][6]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio stands at 41.24%, indicating a stable financial position [2][6].

Core Insights - Qingdao Beer reported a 2.3% year-on-year increase in product sales, reaching 4.732 million kiloliters in the first half of 2025 [1] - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 20.49 billion, reflecting a 2.1% year-on-year growth [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 3.9 billion, showing an increase compared to the previous year [1] Group 1 - The company continues to deepen its focus on the domestic market, prioritizing growth, supported by structural advantages and driven by innovation [1] - Qingdao Beer is enhancing its product portfolio by accelerating the cultivation of major products and innovative categories, while optimizing its brand and product structure [1] - The main brand's product combination strategy, "1+1+1+2+N," is being developed, with steady sales in classic series, Qingdao White Beer, high-end fresh 1L aluminum bottles, and ultra-high-end products [1] Group 2 - The company is targeting new growth opportunities by focusing on "new demographics, new demands, new products, new channels, and new scenarios" [1] - Continuous product innovation and upgrades are being pursued, with several new products launched during the reporting period, including "light dry, cherry-flavored white beer, hazy IPA, and whole wheat national trend" [1]