公司研究 证券研究报 告 青岛啤酒（600600）2025 年中报点评 强推（维持） 逆势稳增，布局修复 目标价：90 元、70 港元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2025年半年报，25H1公司实现营业总收入 204.9亿元，同增 2.1%； 实现归母净利润 39.0 亿元，同增 7.2%；扣非后归母净利润为 36.3 亿元，同增 6.0%；25Q2 公司实现营业总收入 100.5 亿元，同增 1.3%；实现归母净利润 21.9 亿元，同增 7.3%；扣非后归母净利润为 20.3 亿元，同增 6.0%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 32,138 | 33,156 | 34,288 | 35,067 | | 同比增速(%) | -5.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.3% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 4,345 | 4,733 | 5,210 | 5,553 | | 同比增速(%) | 1.8% | 8. ...

事件：公司发布2025 年半年报，根据公司公告，2025H1 公司实现营业总收入204.91 亿，同比增长 2.11%，归母净利润39.04 亿，同比增长7.21%，扣非净利润36.32 亿，同比增长5.99%。2025Q2，公司实 现营业总收入100.46 亿，同比增长1.28%，归母净利润21.94 亿，同比增长7.32%，扣非净利润20.29 亿，同比增长6.02%。公司业绩符合预期。 投资评级与估值：维持盈利预测，预测2025~2027 年公司实现归母净利润48/52/55 亿，分别同比增长 10.3%/8.6%/5.9%，当前股价对应2025~2027 年PE 分别为20/18/17x，港股最新收盘价对应2025~2027 年 PE 分别为13/12/12x。当前青岛啤酒（A 股）股息率（以2024 年度分红金额计算）3.2%，青岛啤酒股份 （港股）股息率4.7%(税前)。伴随着未来资本开支减少，公司分红率具备提升空间，维持买入评级，H 股更具吸引力。中长期看，公司持续优化产品结构，吨酒价格有望进一步提升，伴随成本压力改善，盈 利弹性将进一步释放。公司作为兼具品牌力和高端化基因的本土企业，产能利用率 ...

食品饮料 2025 年 08 月 26 日 青岛啤酒 (600600) ——25Q2 点评：产品结构进一步提升 成本红利驱动净 利率提升 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 投资要点： 上 市 公 司 | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 21.96 | | 资产负债率% | 41.24 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 1,364/709 | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-26 09-26 10-26 11-26 12-26 01-26 02-26 03-26 04-26 05-26 06-26 07-26 08-26 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 青岛啤酒 沪深300指数 (收益率) 相关研究 《青岛啤酒（600600）点评：销量恢复增 长，关注旺季表现》 2025/04/28 《青岛啤酒（600600）点评：成本下降驱 动盈利改善 25 年关注产品结构升级》 2025/03/30 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025H1 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | -- ...

Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Beer emphasizes quality as the foundation of its development, showcasing its transformation in the digital age through meticulous control and management of the brewing process [1] Group 1: Quality Management - Qingdao Beer has established a leading "exclusive" malt factory to enhance the quality of its beer, utilizing a "barley fingerprint database" and innovative malt flavor mapping technology [3] - The company employs a rigorous quality control process, including over 1800 quality inspection projects and precise temperature control to ensure the quality of each beer [3] - A new digital quality management model has been introduced, encompassing standardized control systems and a digital management platform to enhance consumer experience [4] Group 2: Technological Innovation - Qingdao Beer has been recognized for its scientific advancements, winning the National Science and Technology Progress Award four times, highlighting its commitment to research and development [5] - The introduction of "Qingdao Beer Original" emphasizes freshness and quality, with a shelf life of only 7 days, utilizing smart supply chain monitoring for optimal delivery [5] Group 3: Consumer Engagement - The company is adapting to the preferences of younger consumers by creating a "Beer+" ecosystem that allows for personalized product customization for various occasions [6][7] - New product lines, such as the A series, are designed to meet specific consumer scenarios, enhancing the overall brand experience [7] Group 4: Sustainability Initiatives - Qingdao Beer is leading the industry in sustainability efforts, including the use of lightweight bottles and exploring new models for wastewater value sharing [8] - The company is committed to rapid responses to market changes, ensuring that quality transformation aligns with consumer demands [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Jinan Qingdao Beer Festival is revitalizing consumer activity in the city, providing a vibrant summer experience through a unique beer celebration format that enhances social interaction and enjoyment [1][4]. Group 1: Event Highlights - The festival features a tented format, offering a comfortable environment that is unaffected by weather changes, creating a strong sense of community and engagement among attendees [3][4]. - Attendees can enjoy a variety of Qingdao beer products, including fresh draft beer and new product lines, catering to diverse consumer preferences [6][12]. - The event includes creative installations and interactive experiences that integrate local cultural elements, enhancing the overall festival atmosphere [10][12]. Group 2: Consumer Experience - The festival has become a popular destination for relaxation and socializing, with attendees enjoying fresh beer alongside local delicacies [8][16]. - Special promotional items, such as beer cups featuring local landmarks, serve as unique souvenirs and enhance the connection between the festival and the city [14][16]. - The festival is part of a broader trend of beer culture that is being leveraged to promote urban tourism and local identity [10][12].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Ironling Market Supervision Administration conducted food safety inspections, revealing that out of 25 batches tested, 24 were compliant while 1 was deemed non-compliant, indicating a high level of food safety adherence in the region [2]. Group 1: Inspection Results - A total of 25 batches of food products were tested, covering 8 major categories including starch products, agricultural products, alcoholic beverages, grain products, dairy products, vegetable products, condiments, and catering foods [2]. - The inspection yielded 24 compliant batches and 1 non-compliant batch, demonstrating a compliance rate of 96% [2]. Group 2: Non-Compliant Sample Details - The non-compliant sample was identified as a food item from a hot pot restaurant in Kaiyuan City, which contained an excessive amount of anionic synthetic detergent (0.0367 mg/100 cm²), exceeding the allowable limit of "not detectable" [2]. - The Ironling Market Supervision Administration has initiated verification and disposal procedures for the non-compliant sample [2]. Group 3: Compliant Sample Highlights - Several compliant products included high-quality flour from Shenyang Xiangxue Flour Co., Ltd., and various condiments from local manufacturers, indicating a robust supply of safe food products in the market [2][3]. - The compliant samples also featured a range of dairy products, including pure milk from Liaoning Huishan Dairy Group, showcasing the diversity of safe food options available to consumers [3].

Company Dynamics - Moutai is set to launch ten new products in five countries as part of its "Going Global" series, with a release planned for the 2025 Osaka World Expo [1] - Meituan has initiated a promotional campaign for Moutai, offering limited-time sales of 1,499 yuan per bottle during the 618 shopping festival [2] - The Moutai Airport initiative to allow passengers to purchase Moutai with a 100% winning chance was announced but subsequently canceled [3] Industry Trends - Tsingtao Brewery has emphasized its "fresh beer" strategy, focusing on key products like classic, pure draft, and white beer to drive growth [4] - China Resources Snow Beer has reported a significant increase in sales, with daily sales of a new product surpassing 40,000 cans [5] - Yingjia Wine has set a revenue target of 7.6 billion yuan for 2025, expecting a 3.49% year-on-year growth [6] Regulatory Changes - A new national standard for sauce-flavored liquor has been implemented, clarifying definitions and production processes to aid consumer understanding [7] Market Performance - JD.com reported a 150% year-on-year increase in sales for premium liquor during the 618 shopping festival, with specific categories seeing even higher growth [8] Executive Changes - Rémy Cointreau has appointed Franck Marilly as the new CEO, replacing Eric Vallat amid declining sales [9] - Pernod Ricard has also made leadership changes in its cognac division, reflecting adjustments in response to market challenges [10] - Shanxi Fenjiu has elected Wu Yuefei as the new vice chairman of its board [11] Corporate Restructuring - Wuliangye has undergone management changes within its sales company, integrating its brand management and sales functions [12] - Chongqing Beer has welcomed a new CFO from PepsiCo, indicating a strategic shift in its financial leadership [13] - Luzhou Laojiao has seen the resignation of a board member, marking a significant change in its governance [14] Market Outlook - CITIC Securities has indicated that the beverage and beer sectors are expected to benefit from seasonal demand and government initiatives to boost consumption [15] - New products from Jiuziyuan are being introduced at competitive prices, aiming to capture market interest during the festive season [16]

Group 1 - Qingdao Beer has launched a new promotional product themed "Sea Carnival, Set Sail" in collaboration with the luxury cruise ship "Aida Moda," offering 1,000 luxury cruise tickets nationwide [1][5][8] - The classic Qingdao Beer product, known for its rich malt aroma, has been well-received globally, with recognition in over 120 countries and regions [3][5] - Consumers can win a five-day, four-night cruise experience by purchasing the themed Qingdao Beer products and scanning the QR code found on the bottle caps or pull tabs [5][8] Group 2 - The "Aida Moda" cruise ship features design elements inspired by Chinese culture, including murals from Dunhuang, and offers a variety of dining and bar options for a unique experience [7][8] - The "Sea Carnival" series of activities on the cruise will include tastings of Qingdao Beer products, a sea football fan party, and a beer festival, enhancing the overall experience for participants [8] - The promotional campaign will run until December 31, 2025, encouraging consumers to engage with the brand through the themed activities [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer [3][6] Core Views - The company is focusing on cross-industry expansion and is expected to leverage the peak season for growth. The core product strategy revolves around the "1+1+1+2+N" combination development, with an emphasis on strengthening classic products and achieving higher growth in high-end and ultra-high-end series [1][2] - The acquisition of 100% equity in Jimo Huangjiu for 665 million yuan is a significant step in diversifying the beverage portfolio, allowing for seasonal sales balance between Huangjiu and beer, and enhancing supply chain and sales channel efficiency [2] - The company anticipates better performance in terms of volume and price during the peak season, driven by improved weather conditions, stable demand, and supportive domestic policies. The cost structure is expected to improve, contributing to profit elasticity [2] Financial Summary - The projected net profit for the company is expected to reach 4.81 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.7%. The corresponding P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 21x, 19x, and 18x respectively [3][5] - Revenue is projected to decline to 32.14 billion yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 33.73 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 5% [5] - The company’s net profit margin is expected to improve from 12.6% in 2023 to 15.7% by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer [3][6] Core Views - The company is focusing on cross-industry expansion and is expected to leverage the peak season for growth. The core product strategy revolves around the main brand "1+1+1+2+N," with an emphasis on strengthening key products and achieving higher growth rates in high-end and ultra-high-end series. New product launches such as "Aogute A Series, Nikahai White Beer, Non-Alcoholic Beer Series, and Light Dry Beer" are aimed at catering to diverse price segments and tastes, aligning with health consumption trends [1][2] - The acquisition of 100% equity in Jimo Yellow Wine for 665 million yuan is a significant step in diversifying the beverage portfolio. The yellow wine business complements the beer sales cycle, helping to mitigate low sales during off-peak seasons. The integration of sales networks and channels is expected to enhance efficiency [2] - The company anticipates opportunities for exceeding expectations in volume and price during the peak season, driven by favorable weather, stable demand, and potential domestic policy stimuli. The cost structure is expected to improve, with major raw material prices locked in for 2025, leading to better profit performance compared to revenue growth [2] Financial Summary - The projected net profit for the company is expected to reach 4.81 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.7%. The corresponding P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 21x, 19x, and 18x respectively [3][5] - The financial indicators show a revenue forecast of 33.73 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 5.0%. The net profit for 2024 is projected at 4.35 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 1.8% year-on-year [5][10]