节后A股将如何演绎？哪些资产类别可能蕴藏上涨机会？对此，机构观点有所分歧。有券商认为，节后 开盘A股上涨概率较大；也有券商坦言，预计市场大概率呈现震荡格局；另有机构指出，节后指数表现 需关注量价配合的情况。 多家券商也指出，后续市场表现或受海外降息节奏及地缘政治事件"黑天鹅"等风险因素影响。 回顾十一假期，海外市场可谓迎来"多事之秋"，全球大类资产表现分化。海外股市整体走势偏强，风险 资产普遍上涨，数字货币亦再度走强，其中，国际黄金价格突破每盎司4000美元大关。 展望后市，多家券商持乐观态度。中泰证券指出，总体而言，节前市场情绪温和乐观，在科技主线成长 性持续的背景下，节后开盘上涨概率较大。从资金面看，节前最后两个交易日两融余额维持较高水平， 市场平均担保比例回升，表明多头资金整体看好节后走势。从假期海外情况看，全球各主要经济体股市 多数上涨，A股节后存在一定补涨空间。 浙商证券指出，预计A股节后开盘大概率是震荡格局。展望后市，预计上证指数有两种运行路径：一是 直接突破前高形成日线5浪结构；二是先进行区间震荡，此后再行突破。基于"战略看多A股走势战术执 行细化操作"的判断。 东吴证券则指出，传统日历效应下， ...

4 、马斯克的人工智能初创公司 xAI ，正以一种与芯片采购直接 " 挂钩 " 的创新结构，推进一轮高达 200 亿美元的融资。 此次融资最引人注目的特点是， 英伟达将作为重要的股权投资方参与其中，出资额或达 20 亿美元，且整轮融资的结构都与 xAI 采购英伟达 GPU 的计划深度绑定。 英伟达首席执行官黄 仁勋确认，英伟达已投资 xAI 。黄仁勋表示，他本人在 OpenAI 与 AMD 的交易公开宣布前并不知情。他直言后悔未更早投资 OpenAI ，同时指出 OpenAI 的营收正呈指数级增长。 1 、据中国证券报， A 股市场于 10 月 9 日迎来四季度首个交易日。这个假期，全球金融市场并不平静：海外股市普遍小幅走强，为 A 股提供了积极的外 部环境； 与此同时，国际金价历史性突破 4000 美元 / 盎司关口，彰显出全球资金的避险需求。国内层面，刚刚过去的黄金周展现消费韧性，出行人次与 部分核心消费场景的亮眼数据，为经济基本面注入暖意。 在此背景下，私募人士普遍表示，海外市场走强与国内积极因素叠加，有望共同支撑 A 股后市 表现。 2 、 今日凌晨，美联储公布 9 月会议纪要显示，美联储官员在上个月 ...

伦敦金融城的高楼里，去年还在夸自己"全球老大"，今年就全是会议室里拍桌子，老外金融记者说，前脚美国那边才 放话要让企业随便玩，后脚欧盟就急了，央行拉着大银行直接下场，英国这头还没想明白，首相嘴上说要创新，下面 的监管天天加班，市中心银行门口排长队，有人号子都领不到，老百姓就怕存款哪天变数字，刷卡都成了抢红包。 数据摆这，2024年上半年，光伦敦就冒出来七家数字货币公司，三家打着"稳定币"幌子的理财平台，号称秒到账，手 续费低到零头，英国人去年用数字钱包消费破了两千亿英镑，楼下便利店老板娘抱怨，账上零钱三天都取不出来，线 上理财群里有人哭诉，投进去的币一夜之间价格跳水，后台客服全是机器人，没人理你。 说起来，英国这块地方，二十年前还信奉老派银行，现金一手交钱一手交货，排队存款办卡，柜台大爷大妈互相问 候，谁家孩子结婚存款都扎堆送银行，现在全成了手机扫码，APP推送，连小学生都知道怎么买数字理财，老一辈还 记得那会儿银行送月饼、存款有礼品，谁问理财都说安全，现在理财平台满天飞，名字全是英文缩写，收益表写得花 里胡哨，合同厚得像砖头。 后台员工私下吐槽，监管部门发了新文件，要查资金流向，结果公司里技术一动手，数据一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The practicality and trust in digital currencies are questioned in the context of power outages, highlighting the differences between centralized and decentralized digital currencies [1]. Group 1: Centralized Digital Currencies - Centralized digital currencies, such as Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), are issued and managed by governments or financial institutions and rely on centralized servers and payment systems [3]. - In localized power outages, if the server area maintains power and payment terminals have backup power or offline payment capabilities, centralized digital currencies can still function [3]. - However, in widespread power outages affecting servers, transactions and usage of centralized digital currencies may face significant disruptions due to the inability to verify and record transactions [5]. Group 2: Decentralized Digital Currencies - Decentralized digital currencies, exemplified by Bitcoin, operate on blockchain technology, which is a distributed ledger maintained by numerous nodes [7]. - Theoretically, as long as some nodes remain operational, transactions can continue even in localized power outages, due to the decentralized nature of the blockchain [7]. - Practically, most users' devices may be inoperable due to power loss, and network connectivity could be compromised, hindering access to the blockchain for transactions [7]. - A large-scale power outage could incapacitate many nodes, leading to network congestion or reduced computational power, which would affect transaction confirmation speed and success rates [7]. Group 3: Merchant Acceptance and Practical Challenges - The acceptance of digital currencies by merchants is crucial; even if digital currencies can theoretically be used during power outages, transactions may fail if merchants' payment devices are non-functional or if they lack knowledge of offline usage [9]. - The ability to use digital currencies during power outages is contingent on various factors, including the type of digital currency, the extent of the power outage, backup power availability, and merchant acceptance [9]. Group 4: Future Considerations - Despite existing technical mechanisms, power outages can still pose challenges to the use of digital currencies [11]. - To enhance the practicality and stability of digital currencies, ongoing efforts in technology development, infrastructure improvement, and user education are necessary to ensure secure and convenient payment experiences in extreme conditions [11].

今天国庆的第二天，投资市场两件事： 第一，香港那边恒生指数大涨。 大家知道我最近投了不少钱买股票，一半都是港股，我一天都在看盘。想着，咱们股民挺累的，都不能休息，A股休息，港股不休息，港股休息，美股不 休息。赚不赚钱再说，天天一顿瞎忙。 幸亏没上班，不然上班很耽误赚钱。 9月份以来，肉眼可见，一天天看到从8月底的3300多块涨到现在接近3900块。一个月上涨了18%。 不知道你有没有买黄金，我去年定投了点黄金，现在收益走的相当不错，因为是定投，所以我一直就没有停止过。 只是我没有太把黄金当回事，按每周来定投，小额投，所以占我整个家庭资产的比重不高。 但是基本把今年的生活费全部给挣回来了，也是个小小的惊喜。 我感觉黄金的走势，需要引起所有人的注意了。 因为他感觉他的定位已经彻底变了，过去是避险资产， 因为黄金有个巨大的缺点，就是不生息，也无法抗通胀，因为过去实在涨太慢了。 不生息，不生息，不生息，强调三次。 从去年到今年，黄金的走势甚至不像是一类避险资产，反而更具备投资属性了。 这种定位的改变，已经刷新了普通人对黄金的定位。 第二，黄金市场太疯狂了。 今天我看高盛又发黄金的预测报告了，说这一波很可能要冲到430 ...

Group 1 - The forum "Phoenix Bay Area Finance Forum 2025" held in Guangzhou focused on the theme "New Pattern, New Path," gathering global elites from politics, business, and academia to explore new trends in the changing landscape [1] - Economist Fu Peng discussed the rising gold prices, attributing it to a global consensus reflecting widespread concerns over potential risks, marking a shift in the perception of gold's value as a storage of wealth [3][4] - The behavior of the Chinese central bank and private sectors in purchasing gold while reducing U.S. Treasury holdings indicates a growing distrust in the traditional dollar credit system, suggesting a reconfiguration of the existing order [4] Group 2 - Liang Dong introduced the concept of "accelerated and decelerated dualism," explaining that as some individuals rapidly engage with AI and digitalization, others seek stability through traditional assets like gold [4] - The discussion highlighted a generational shift in value perception, where traditional heirlooms like rosewood furniture are losing appeal among younger generations, who may value contemporary items like Labubu more [5] - The emergence of products that combine gold with modern cultural symbols reflects a blending of traditional value storage with contemporary aesthetics, catering to the dual desires for trendiness and stability [5] Group 3 - The advent of AI, marked by the launch of ChatGPT, has shifted investment focus from broad technology to specific applications, indicating a clear path for the AI industry [6] - The necessity of AI skills for personal development is emphasized, with the ability to utilize AI becoming a fundamental competency for future generations [6][7] - Concerns about AI replacing human jobs are discussed, with a two-phase development model proposed: the current phase of human-AI collaboration and a future phase where AI may independently drive production, potentially leading to job displacement [7]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion at the "Phoenix Bay Area Finance Forum 2025" highlights the duality of investment strategies in the face of global uncertainty, particularly the coexistence of traditional assets like gold and emerging assets like digital currencies [1][6]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The rise in gold prices is influenced by a historical and cultural consensus on its value, which may change over time and across generations [2]. - There is a trend of "dual betting," where investors allocate resources to both digital currencies and gold, representing a strategy to navigate uncertainty [3]. - This duality reflects a broader psychological need for security through diversified asset allocation in uncertain times [5]. Group 2: Perspectives on Assets - The conversation contrasts "accelerationism," where individuals embrace new technologies and digital currencies, with "decelerationism," where others seek stability through traditional assets like gold [2][4]. - The existence of both accelerationism and decelerationism in investment choices indicates a unified response to global uncertainties [5].

著名经济学家付鹏（左一）、正安康健创始人、正安中医教育基金会创始人梁冬（左二） 针对黄金价格的飙升，著名经济学家付鹏与正安康健创始人、正安中医教育基金会创始人梁冬在论坛对话环节进行探讨。 凤凰网财经讯 9月23-24日，由凤凰卫视、凤凰网主办的"凤凰湾区财经论坛2025"在广州举行。本届论坛以"新格局·新路径"为主题，汇聚全球政商学界精 英，共同洞察变局脉络、探寻发展新机。 付鹏认为，黄金强势背后是受跨越历史文化的价值储存共识影响，但他提醒，价值共识会随着人群和时间的变化而发生变化。他提到，"我们家就做过试 验。我给孩子留了一些钱币、邮币卡，还有一些珠子、串子、玛瑙、翡翠、木头。" 他指出，老一辈认为有价值、可以作为传家宝的物品，在年轻人眼中可 能并非如此。比如"我们认为红木家具可以当传家宝，你认为现在年轻人会认同这个价值吗？他不认为的，搞不好认为买的Labubu更值钱。" 而梁冬则将黄金与时下兴起的数字货币并行讨论，他认为，这表面上是两种资产，但背后反映的是一个故事线——加速主义与减速主义的并存。 一方面，"加速主义" 体现在一部分人正快速拥抱人工智能、数字化等前沿科技领域，并投资于数字货币这样的新兴资产。 ...

尽管经济数据向好、美联储降息支持且股市接近高位，但美国金融市场正在经历一场微妙的转变。 彭博汇编的数据显示，本月，此前深受散户青睐的美国杠杆ETF遭遇资金流出约70亿美元，为2019年有 记录以来的最高水平。 与此同时，随着杠杆押注的平仓，数字货币市场一度蒸发约3000亿美元市值。此外，美股主要股指也结 束了连续上涨的势头。标普500指数和纳斯达克100指数均录得一个月来的首次单周下跌。 以三倍做多半导体指数的Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares（SOXL）为例，尽管该基金本月 上涨了31%，但投资者仍从中撤出了超过23亿美元。 这清晰地表明，部分交易员选择在上涨时离场。 同样，旨在放大特斯拉公司股价波动的TSLL基金，也正迎来其有史以来最大的月度资金流出，规模已 达约15亿美元。 Interactive Brokers的首席策略师Steve Sosnick评论道： "活跃的交易员仍然愿意追逐快速变动的股票，但他们逢低买入和追高的兴趣确实减弱了。 我不会称之为'消化不良'，或许更像是在饕餮盛宴后的一点'食物昏迷'。" 值得注意的是，引领此次撤退的正是那些曾被 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. economy**, **geopolitical risks**, and the **impact of AI** on economic growth. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **U.S. Economic Growth and Challenges** The U.S. economy is increasingly reliant on AI-driven growth, with reduced recession risks, but faces challenges from weak consumer spending and rising unemployment rates [1][2][3] 2. **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Policy** The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts are lower than expected, with a forecast of two additional cuts this year. The current economic environment is characterized by high fiscal policy and a challenging bond market due to elevated interest rates [1][3][13][14] 3. **Geopolitical Developments** Recent high-level interactions between the U.S. and China have led to progress in trade negotiations, particularly in aircraft and agricultural purchases, despite increased controls on chip exports from China [4][5][6] 4. **Middle East Stability and Oil Prices** The Middle East is stabilizing, with oil prices down approximately 15% year-over-year, which helps alleviate U.S. inflation concerns. However, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is escalating, with both sides attacking oil infrastructure [9][10] 5. **U.S. Immigration Policy Changes** The U.S. and Canada are tightening immigration policies, with significant increases in deportations, reflecting a strategic shift to address domestic issues [11] 6. **Debt Issues in Major Economies** Countries like France, Japan, and the UK are facing severe debt challenges, leading to strategic contractions and relative geopolitical stability as nations focus on internal economic issues [12] 7. **AI Data Center Investment Trends** The construction of data centers is a significant economic highlight, with investments expected to reach $500 to $600 billion this year, driven by the demand for AI capabilities [21][22] 8. **Potential Bubble in AI Data Center Investments** While there is a risk of a bubble in AI data center investments, the current demand remains high, indicating that the investment cycle is not yet over [22] 9. **U.S. Tariff Policies** The average tariff rate is around 14%, but actual rates are lower due to free trade agreements. The U.S. aims to reduce trade deficits and has seen a 30% drop in trade with Canada [23] 10. **Predictions for U.S. Stock Market** The stock market is expected to experience significant earnings growth in Q4, particularly in AI stocks, which could lead to a decrease in valuations [24] 11. **Challenges Facing the U.S. Economy** Key challenges include weak consumer spending, high interest rates affecting the real estate market, and job displacement due to AI technologies. The global economic slowdown may also impact the U.S. economy [29][30] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The rapid decline in inflation is attributed to falling energy and food prices, while the service sector still experiences inflationary pressures [18][20] - The U.S. unemployment rate is rising, particularly in high-paying sectors, with significant layoffs occurring in tech and finance [19] - The Federal Reserve's new leadership under Dr. Milan advocates for aggressive rate cuts to stimulate economic activity [16][17]