土耳其央行日前表示，该行将维持2025年底通胀预期在24%不变，本次通胀预测被设定为"中期目 标"，"除非出现重大突发情况，否则目标不会调整"。 数据显示，土耳其年度通胀率已在7月降至33.5%，为2021年11月以来最低水平，较去年5月75.5%的峰 值大幅回落。 "过去央行将中期目标当作预测，但由于通胀高度不确定，不得不频繁修订。"土央行行长卡拉汗表 示，"未来将把两者区分开。" 货币紧缩立场将延续 土央行今年7月重启降息，将基准利率下调300个基点至43%。自2023年以来，该利率一直维持在40%以 上。土央行最新市场参与者调查显示，年底政策利率或降至36.2%。 "但在真正实现价格稳定前，土央行将继续维持紧缩立场。"卡拉汗表示，紧缩政策已逐步缓解通胀压 力，国内需求持续放缓，需求走弱带来的通缩效应正在增强。今年一季度私人消费增速明显减弱，对整 体经济增长的贡献较紧缩前期显著下降。 与此同时，净出口对经济活动的作用趋于平衡。初步数据显示，土耳其7月外贸平衡改善，有助于维持 经常账户赤字的温和水平。 "第二季度经常账户赤字占国内生产总值的比重约为1.3%。"卡拉汗说，预计2025年全年该比例将保持在 长期 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In July 2025, the CPI year-on-year growth was 0.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[6] - The CPI month-on-month growth was 0.4%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[6] - The core CPI year-on-year growth was 0.8%, up 0.1 percentage points from July[9] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In July 2025, the PPI year-on-year decline was 3.6%, unchanged from the previous month[6] - The PPI month-on-month decline was -0.2%, a narrowing of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[6] - The production materials prices year-on-year decreased by 4.3%, with the mining sector down 14.0%[30] Group 3: Market Trends - The "anti-involution" effect is gradually emerging, indicating a potential easing of oversupply in consumer goods[3] - External uncertainties and domestic economic pressures continue to hinder effective demand, limiting significant price increases in the near future[37] - The global economic recovery may lead to a rise in commodity prices, potentially pushing PPI growth upward in 2025[37]

Group 1: Export Performance - In July, China's exports in USD terms increased by 7.2% year-on-year, slightly below the forecast of 7.5% but exceeding Bloomberg's expectation of 5.4%[3] - The month-on-month export growth was -1.1%, which is below the historical average of approximately 3.3% over the past decade, indicating a weaker performance compared to historical trends[4] - The resilience of exports is notable despite the significant tariffs imposed by the US, with cumulative year-on-year growth reaching 6.1% as of July, surpassing the 5.8% growth expected for 2024[7] Group 2: Import Dynamics - July imports also exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1%, significantly higher than the forecast of -1% and the previous month's growth of 1.1%[6] - The primary contributors to the import growth were raw materials and intermediate goods, including crude oil, copper ore, and integrated circuits, with "other unspecified goods" contributing 4.5 percentage points to the import growth[6] - The sustainability of this import growth remains uncertain, particularly as commodity prices decline and manufacturing PMI import indices remain below the threshold, indicating potential downward pressure on future import growth[6] Group 3: Regional Export Insights - The strongest export growth was observed in three regions: ASEAN, Africa, and the EU, which collectively contributed 6 percentage points to the year-on-year export growth in July[4] - Exports to the EU have been recovering in line with the manufacturing cycle in the Eurozone, with growth rates for exports to the EU maintaining around 9%-10% since March[7] - Exports to Africa showed the highest growth, particularly in vehicles and parts, with year-on-year growth soaring from 52.3% in April to 82.9% in June, significantly boosting overall export performance to Africa[6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall outlook for exports suggests potential adjustments in the second half of the year, with external demand expected to slow down and the impact of high base effects in the fourth quarter likely to exert downward pressure on year-on-year growth rates[6] - Leading indicators from G7 countries suggest that China's export growth may range between 3%-4% for the year, with a potential slowdown to 0%-2% in the latter half[6] - The combination of external demand pressures and high base effects could lead to a challenging environment for maintaining current export growth levels[6]

Export Performance - In July, China's exports in USD terms increased by 7.2% year-on-year, slightly below the forecast of 7.5% but above Bloomberg's expectation of 5.4%[1] - The month-on-month export growth was -1.1%, which is significantly lower than the historical average of approximately 3.3% over the past decade[3] - The strong export performance is supported by a low base effect from July of the previous year, which saw a month-on-month decline of 2.3%[12] Import Performance - July imports in USD terms rose by 4.1%, exceeding Bloomberg's forecast of -1% and the previous month's growth of 1.1%[1] - The main contributors to the import growth were raw materials and intermediate goods, including crude oil, copper ore, and integrated circuits[2] - The category of "other unspecified goods" significantly contributed to import growth, adding 4.5 percentage points in July compared to 2 percentage points in June[40] Regional Export Insights - Exports to ASEAN, Africa, and the EU were particularly strong, contributing a combined 6 percentage points to the overall export growth in July[15] - The EU's recovery in manufacturing is closely linked to the increase in exports, with a consistent growth rate of 9%-10% from March to July[17] - Exports to Africa showed the highest growth, driven mainly by vehicles and parts, with a year-on-year increase of 82.9% in June[26] Future Outlook - External demand is expected to slow down, with the global manufacturing PMI new export orders index dropping from 49.1% in June to 48.5% in July[34] - The third quarter is anticipated to have a low base effect, while the fourth quarter may face higher comparative figures, potentially leading to downward pressure on year-on-year growth rates[35] - Overall, export growth for the year is projected to be between 3% and 4%, with the second half of the year likely seeing growth rates of 0% to 2%[34]

金十数据7月10日讯，潘森宏观首席欧洲经济学家克劳斯·维斯特在最新报告中指出，德国的通胀年率预 计将在今年晚些时候上升，主要受到基数效应的影响。数据显示，6月CPI同比上涨2.0%，较5月略有回 落，尽管上月油价有所上升。未来几个月，德国通胀率可能还会进一步放缓，能源价格涨幅在9月前仍 将保持温和。但他也指出，一旦进入9月之后，由于去年同期低基数的影响，届时将推动整体通胀率重 新上升。 机构：德国通胀将在今年晚些时候上升 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea indicates that the increase in June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is primarily due to base effects, and anticipates a slowdown in CPI growth in July if oil prices and foreign exchange trends continue [1] Group 1 - The June CPI growth is attributed to base effects [1] - A potential slowdown in CPI growth is expected in July [1] - The future CPI growth is contingent on the trends of oil prices and foreign exchange [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea indicates that inflation rates in the second half of the year will be at the upper end of the 1% range, with June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) potentially rising due to base effects [1] Group 1: Inflation Outlook - Inflation may slow down in the second half of the year due to falling oil prices and weak demand [1] - The CPI in June could see an increase influenced by base effects [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea indicates that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June may rise due to base effects [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Korea is anticipating an increase in the CPI for June, attributing this to the base effect from the previous year [1]

Core Insights - Guangdong province has reported significant growth in foreign trade, with cities like Guangzhou showing a remarkable increase in import and export volumes, indicating a recovery from previous negative growth periods [2][3][4] Trade Performance - From January to April, Guangzhou's total foreign trade reached 400.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, outperforming both the national average and the provincial growth rates by 15.2 and 12.7 percentage points respectively [2][4] - The trade performance of Guangzhou is characterized by a continuous monthly growth exceeding 10% for four consecutive months [3] Structural Changes - The growth in Guangzhou's foreign trade is attributed to the optimization of trade structure, increased vitality of foreign trade entities, and expanded international cooperation [2][5] - The city has shifted focus from low-value, high-energy-consuming traditional processing trade to knowledge-intensive industries such as new energy vehicles, biomedicine, and integrated circuits, fostering a resilient economic system [5] Export and Import Dynamics - In the first four months, exports of electromechanical products and high-tech products from Guangzhou were valued at 111.93 billion yuan and 28.49 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 16.5% and 16.3% [5] - The export of new categories such as electric vehicles, photovoltaic products, and lithium batteries reached 6.3 billion yuan, marking a 24.5% increase [5] Role of Private Enterprises - Private enterprises remain the backbone of foreign trade, with over 20,000 companies engaged in import and export activities in Guangzhou, of which more than 17,000 are private, accounting for 85.9% of the total [6] - In the first four months, private enterprises in Guangzhou achieved an import and export volume of 242.14 billion yuan, a growth of 32.6%, representing 60.5% of the city's total foreign trade [6] Market Diversification - Guangzhou has expanded its trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative, achieving a 28.5% increase in trade volume, which accounted for 46.9% of the city's total foreign trade [8][9] - The city has also maintained strong trade relationships with traditional markets, showing resilience despite external pressures [8] Policy Support - The implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law and various facilitation measures by customs has accelerated the international expansion of private enterprises [6][9] - Guangzhou has introduced targeted policies to support foreign trade, including subsidies for overseas exhibitions and early activation of export credit insurance [6]