前言： 家人们爆大瓜了！今年以来，特朗普政府掀起的关税风暴让全球贸易市场风声鹤唳。美国对中国出口商 品的关税税率一度飙升至125%，冲突烈度远超上一轮贸易摩擦。 就在外界担忧中国出口会遭受重创时，数据给出了意外答案：上半年中国货物出口占全球份额升至 14.2%，创下历史同期新高。 在如此严峻的外部环境下，中国出口为何能保持强劲韧性？这背后既有市场布局和产业升级的硬支撑， 也暗藏着需要警惕的隐忧。 市场多元化：对冲美国关税冲击的关键 上一轮中美贸易冲突爆发时，中国对美出口依赖度还在20%左右，而现在这一比例已经降至10%上下。 依赖度的下降，让本轮关税冲击的影响大幅缓解。 欧洲市场也带来了惊喜。受需求回暖以及中欧合作加深的影响，前10个月中国对欧盟出口增长7.5%， 拉动整体出口增速1.1个百分点，比上年同期多贡献0.8个百分点。 这些数据清晰表明，中国出口已经摆脱了对美国市场的过度依赖，形成了多点开花的格局，这也是抵御 外部贸易政策冲击的重要底气。 商品结构升级：制造业竞争力的硬核支撑 今年前10个月，中国对美出口累计降幅高达17.8%，连续七个月保持两位数下滑，仅这一项就拖累整体 出口增速2.6个百分点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite the challenges posed by Trump's tariff policies, China's export resilience has exceeded market expectations, with its global export share reaching a historical high of 14.2% in the first half of the year [1] Group 1: Export Market Diversification - The trade conflict initiated by Trump has led to a significant increase in tariffs on Chinese goods, with rates rising from 34% to as high as 125% [2][3] - China's reliance on the U.S. for exports has decreased, with its share of exports to the U.S. dropping from around 20% at the end of 2018 to approximately 10% [3] - In response to tariff pressures, China has diversified its export markets, with exports to ASEAN and Africa growing by 14.3% and 26.1% respectively in the first ten months of the year [4] Group 2: Export Product Structure Optimization - China's export product structure has improved, with high-tech industrial products accounting for 53.3% of exports in September, marking a historical high [5][7] - The export growth of high-tech products has contributed significantly to overall export growth, with a 9.0% increase in the first nine months of the year [5][7] - The competitiveness of Chinese products has been bolstered by a stable RCA index above 1 for various industrial products, indicating a strong comparative advantage [9][11] Group 3: Concerns Behind Export Resilience - A significant portion of China's exports consists of intermediate goods, which are often processed in other countries before reaching final markets, raising concerns about the sustainability of this export model [13][15] - The decline in export prices due to domestic demand issues and increased competition has led to a trend of "trading at lower prices for volume," impacting overall export value [15] - The IMF has highlighted that the long-term support for China's export resilience from diversifying markets may be uncertain, as demand from major economies remains crucial [15][17]

Core Viewpoint - China needs to be vigilant about the weakening momentum of global economic growth and the recurring external trade conflicts that may disrupt external demand in the coming year [1] Group 1: Export Market Diversification - The trade conflict initiated by Trump has led to a significant increase in tariffs on Chinese exports, with rates rising from 34% to as high as 125% [2][3] - Despite the intensified trade conflict, China's reliance on the U.S. for exports has decreased, with the share of exports to the U.S. dropping from around 20% at the end of 2018 to about 10% [3][4] - China's exports to ASEAN and Africa have seen significant growth, with year-on-year increases of 14.3% and 26.1% respectively, contributing positively to overall export growth [4] Group 2: Export Product Structure Optimization - The structure of China's export products has improved, with the share of high-tech industrial products rising to 53.3% in September 2023, marking a historical high [5][7] - The growth in high-tech industrial exports has been driven by machinery and audio-visual equipment, which saw their export shares increase to 42.6% and 8.5% respectively [5][7] - The RCA index for various industrial products indicates that while labor and resource-intensive products have seen a decline in comparative advantage, other categories have shown significant improvement [9][12] Group 3: Concerns Behind Export Resilience - A significant portion of China's exports consists of intermediate goods, with 51.1% of total exports being intermediate products, indicating a reliance on further processing in other countries like Vietnam [13][15] - The IMF report highlights that while China's intermediate goods trade has increased, the export of final goods remains primarily directed towards Europe and North America, raising concerns about the sustainability of this trade structure [15] - The continuous decline in export prices since 2023 has led to a trend of "trading price for volume," which may provoke increased trade protectionism against China [15][17]

罗志恒/文 在全球经济复苏不均、地缘政治不确定性加剧，尤其是美国对华加征高额关税的多重压力下，市场在年 初普遍预期2025年中国出口将面临较大压力。然而，事实与预期出现明显背离：尽管中国对美直接出口 出现显著下滑，但整体出口增速却不降反升。1—10月中国出口累计同比增长5.3%，10月出口当月同比 下降1.1%，主要因为去年同期高基数与今年10月工作日减少，并未改变前三季度出口整体向好的基本 面。考虑到美国4月以来整体进口增速便显著放缓，中国出口高增显然难以简单归因于对美"抢出 口"或"抢转口"带来的短期波动。中国出口韧性从何而来？还能持续多久？ 一、中国出口的超预期韧性 今年以来，中国出口同比依然维持较高增长，展现出超市场预期的强大韧性。2025年前三季度，中国出 口总额达2.8万亿美元，同比增长6.1%，为近三年来同期最高水平。货物和服务净出口对GDP同比增速 的拉动达1.5个百分点，创近十年同期次高，仅次于疫情恢复后的2021年。 中国出口份额或将进一步增长。中国出口增速虽低于越南，但显著高于韩国、日本等其他主要出口型经 济体。2025年前三季度，韩国和日本出口同比分别增长2.3%和2.5%，明显低于中 ...