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2025从关税的“预期链条”怎么看美国经济景气线索?-工银亚洲研究
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 08:18
工银亚洲研究《2025从关税的"预期链条"怎么看美国经济景气线索?》报告,聚焦美国"对等关税"政策对经济的影响,通过分析通胀、产业链、经济数据及 政策前景,梳理美国经济景气线索与未来趋势。 报告指出,2025年8月前,美国关税政策处于谈判延期阶段,效应主要集中于产业链上游,对PPI抬升明显(PPI同比从1月3.8%波动至7月3.1%),但对 CPI"直接穿透"有限(CPI同比从1月3.0%缓升至7月2.7%)。此阶段关税影响通过"预期链条"传导,表现为企业库存动机增强,中上游制造商、批发商库存 增速加快,下游零售商库存增速放缓;同时,"进口量增多""耐用品产量增加""零售让利"吸收预期效应,进口量1-3月较2024年均值增17.6%,耐用品前7月 出货量增速提至3.1%,沃尔玛等零售商让利致经营利润下降,暂时掩盖关税对终端价格的冲击。 8月后关税落地,通胀传导显化。8月PPI同比降至2.6%,CPI同比升至2.9%,核心商品对CPI拉动率达0.4%,家具、运输产品价格领涨。预计9月后通胀进一 步"显化",四季度影响明显,因库存缓冲耗尽,企业逐步转嫁成本,且关税政策向产业领域延伸(如汽车、半导体),或令通胀影响 ...
美国8月CPI数据点评:CPI超预期反弹,而降息预期升温
Great Wall Securities· 2025-09-12 12:32
Inflation Data - The US August CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, exceeding the previous value of 2.7% and market expectations of 2.84%[2] - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month, compared to a previous increase of 0.2% and market expectations of 0.3%[2] - Core CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year, matching the previous value and exceeding market expectations of 3.05%[2] Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate in the US rose from 4.2% to 4.3%, reaching a nearly four-year high[8] - Initial jobless claims surged to the highest level in nearly four years as of the week ending September 6[8] - The Michigan University one-year inflation expectation increased by 0.3 percentage points to 4.8% in August, while the five-year expectation rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.5%[3] Market Implications - The rise in inflation has led to increased expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of three cuts within the year significantly rising[2] - Despite the overall CPI exceeding expectations, core CPI growth was in line with market predictions, indicating potential inflation persistence[3] - The combination of high inflation, slowing economic growth, and rising unemployment signals a risk of stagflation in the US economy[8]