工银亚洲研究《2025从关税的"预期链条"怎么看美国经济景气线索？》报告，聚焦美国"对等关税"政策对经济的影响，通过分析通胀、产业链、经济数据及 政策前景，梳理美国经济景气线索与未来趋势。 报告指出，2025年8月前，美国关税政策处于谈判延期阶段，效应主要集中于产业链上游，对PPI抬升明显（PPI同比从1月3.8%波动至7月3.1%），但对 CPI"直接穿透"有限（CPI同比从1月3.0%缓升至7月2.7%）。此阶段关税影响通过"预期链条"传导，表现为企业库存动机增强，中上游制造商、批发商库存 增速加快，下游零售商库存增速放缓；同时，"进口量增多""耐用品产量增加""零售让利"吸收预期效应，进口量1-3月较2024年均值增17.6%，耐用品前7月 出货量增速提至3.1%，沃尔玛等零售商让利致经营利润下降，暂时掩盖关税对终端价格的冲击。 8月后关税落地，通胀传导显化。8月PPI同比降至2.6%，CPI同比升至2.9%，核心商品对CPI拉动率达0.4%，家具、运输产品价格领涨。预计9月后通胀进一 步"显化"，四季度影响明显，因库存缓冲耗尽，企业逐步转嫁成本，且关税政策向产业领域延伸（如汽车、半导体），或令通胀影响 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the impact of potential interest rate cuts in the U.S. on various sectors, particularly those related to tools, machinery, and capital goods [1][2][3] Key Points and Arguments 1. **Interest Rate Cuts and Investment Strategy** - Anticipation of interest rate cuts is expected to benefit certain sectors, particularly tool companies and those with high leasing interest, such as engineering machinery and commercial kitchen equipment [1] 2. **Inflation Transmission and Economic Pressure** - Inflation is slowly transmitting downstream, causing pressure on both domestic and U.S. companies. The August employment wage data indicates minimal core service inflation pressure, suggesting that if demand improves in 2026, price transmission may alleviate current pressures [1][5] 3. **Market Demand Outlook for 2026** - The improvement in market demand in 2026 is a key focus. Stable construction spending in the U.S. and suppressed equipment renewal demand are expected to recover quickly post-rate cuts. Manufacturing return and urban center construction will further boost demand, leading to better cash flow and profit expectations compared to 2025 [1][6] 4. **Investment Focus Areas** - Investment should target sectors less affected by inflation and more positively impacted by interest rate cuts, such as real estate and previously high-rate suppressed areas. These sectors are expected to show stronger upward elasticity in a recovering economy [7][10] 5. **Global Economic Impact of U.S. Rate Cuts** - U.S. rate cuts are expanding global policy space and promoting capital goods demand recovery in Europe. The U.S. and European markets are expected to positively influence capital goods, with certain companies potentially benefiting from improved demand and price transmission [8] 6. **Sector-Specific Recommendations** - Recommended sectors include tool companies, capital goods, oil and gas industry equipment, and technology-driven firms like PCB and power generation. Companies like 巨星科技 (Juxing Technology) and 川仪股份 (Chuan Yi Co.) are highlighted for their strong performance potential [9][11] 7. **Investment Selection Criteria** - Investment choices should prioritize certainty, especially in an uncertain U.S. economic environment. Focus on sectors benefiting from U.S. rate cuts, capital goods, and oil and gas industries, which are expected to experience elasticity release in 2026 [10] Additional Important Insights - The slow transmission of inflation and the impact of tariffs on profitability are significant concerns for companies. The current economic environment is challenging, but improvements in demand next year could alleviate some pressures [5][6] - Companies like 银都 (Yindu) and 浩洋 (Haoyang) are noted for having released risks, indicating potential for better future performance [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference is a significant event that influences global capital flows, focusing this year on the transformation of the labor market amid challenges like aging populations and productivity slowdowns [1][2]. Group 1: Conference Details - The conference will take place from August 21 to 23, gathering central bank leaders, policymakers, economists, and market experts to discuss pressing global economic challenges and policy choices [1]. - The theme of this year's conference is "Labor Market Transformation: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy," addressing real-world issues such as aging, productivity growth, and the rise of AI and automation [1]. Group 2: Historical Significance - Historically, key statements made at this conference have led to significant market movements, such as Paul Volcker's defense of aggressive rate hikes and Ben Bernanke's hints at quantitative easing during the global financial crisis [2][3]. - The conference serves as a pivotal moment for market direction, with past remarks from Federal Reserve chairs often marking turning points in market trends [3]. Group 3: Current Economic Context - Recent data shows that the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July exceeded expectations, indicating a potential resurgence of inflation, which has led to a shift in market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [4]. - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes revealed that most participants view inflation risks as outweighing employment risks, highlighting internal divisions on the path to interest rate cuts [4]. Group 4: Political Pressure on the Fed - There is increasing political pressure on the Federal Reserve, particularly from the Trump administration, which is advocating for quicker rate cuts, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [5][6]. - The upcoming conference will be closely watched for how Fed Chair Jerome Powell addresses these political pressures and maintains the Fed's credibility [6]. Group 5: Key Investor Focus Areas - Investors should pay attention to three main areas during the conference: 1. The signaling of interest rate paths and whether Powell will downplay expectations for a September rate cut [8]. 2. The impact of tariffs on corporate costs and inflation, particularly how Powell articulates this relationship [8]. 3. The Fed's independence in the face of political noise and how Powell responds to these challenges [8].

Core Insights - Inflation is beginning to show signs of transmission according to June data, as stated by Michelle, the global head of fixed income at JPMorgan [1] Group 1 - The June inflation data indicates that inflation is starting to manifest transmission effects [1]

Core Viewpoint - The CPI report is perceived as somewhat subjective, showing slightly weaker data than some forecasts, but the impact of tariffs is expected to become more pronounced in July and August [1] Group 1 - The CPI data is slightly below expectations from various forecasting agencies [1] - The performance of commodity prices in June was relatively strong [1] - The report does not alter the fundamental views of those who believe the worst of tariff-driven price increases is yet to come [1] Group 2 - For those who think inflation transmission will be slower and less impactful due to companies striving to maintain market share in a weakening demand environment, the report also does not change their perspective [1]

Core Insights - The June CPI report is characterized by its "self-selecting interpretation" nature, allowing for varied perspectives on the data [1] - The core CPI increased by 0.23% month-over-month in June, which is the median monthly increase over the past 12 months, indicating a moderate inflation trend [1] - Most forecasters expect more significant tariff impacts to be seen in July and August, suggesting that the June report may not alter existing views on inflation dynamics [1] - The report's findings may reinforce existing beliefs about the pace and magnitude of inflation transmission, depending on the initial outlook of the analysts [1]

Core Insights - The impact of tariffs on U.S. consumer prices has been unexpectedly muted, with significant effects yet to materialize [1][2] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the core PCE inflation will rise to 3.3% by the end of 2025, with tariffs contributing approximately 1% to this increase [1][7] Delayed Transmission of Tariff Costs - The effective tariff rate is expected to increase by about 9 percentage points due to announced tariffs, with a total expected increase of around 14 percentage points [2] - As of May, the effective tariff rate had only risen by 7.2 percentage points, indicating a lag in the expected impact [2] - Three main factors contribute to this delay: the timing of tariff implementation, the ability for importers to defer tariff payments, and companies stockpiling goods ahead of tariff increases [2][5] Foreign Exporters Bearing Costs - Foreign exporters are absorbing approximately 20% of the tariff costs by lowering export prices, a significant increase from nearly zero during the 2018-2019 trade conflict [3][4] Consumer Price Transmission - The transmission of tariff costs to consumers is slow, with only 0.3% of the expected price increase realized in the first month after tariff implementation [5] - The transmission rate increases over time, reaching 40% by the third month, compared to a faster transmission during the previous trade conflict [5][6] Inflation Forecasts - Despite the delayed transmission of tariff costs, Goldman Sachs maintains its inflation forecast, estimating that announced tariffs have raised core PCE prices by about 6 basis points since January [7] - The firm anticipates that all tariff impacts will push core PCE up by approximately 1 percentage point by December, leading to an annual inflation rate of 3.3% [7]

Group 1 - The key focus for bonds in the overseas market is the Federal Reserve's policy, with expectations of monetary easing due to limited impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation [1] - The U.S. import price index has shown minimal fluctuation despite the imposition of tariffs, indicating limited transmission to CPI and PPI [3][4] - The core PPI in the U.S. increased by only 0.1% in May, contrasting sharply with the 10% rise in tariffs, suggesting that inflation is a major constraint on the Federal Reserve's easing policy [4][7] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's current federal funds rate of 4.5% is among the highest globally, with core CPI and core PPI around 2%, indicating significant real interest rates [7] - The expectation is for the Federal Reserve to lower rates three times by the end of the year, starting from the September meeting, potentially bringing the rate down to 3.75% [7][8] - The market anticipates a more dovish shift from the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year, despite the challenges in predicting inflation trends [8] Group 3 - In the context of trade negotiations, there remains a high level of uncertainty, leading to a recommendation to focus on the 10-year Treasury ETF (511260) as a core investment tool [9] - The 10-year Treasury yield is considered a key indicator of the bond market, and the ETF offers advantages such as T+0 trading [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector is (Bullish) [1] Report's Core View - The upward direction of the global economy remains unchanged despite ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The conclusion is based on factors such as the US-China agreement stabilizing economic expectations, the expansion of the US manufacturing sector, growth in US consumer credit, China's efforts to address cut - throat competition, and the recovery of European manufacturing [1] Summary by Related Content Important Information - The Fed's June dot - plot shows an extreme trend of "either zero rate cuts or two rate cuts". Powell indicates that rate cuts require confirmation of tariff impacts on inflation and face new obstacles like Middle - East conflict escalation and unexpected food price surges, with key decisions postponed to after summer [1] - US President Trump has approved an attack plan on Iran but hasn't issued a final order, aiming to force Iran to abandon its nuclear program through threats [1] - Trump has repeatedly asked military advisors about the effectiveness of using giant bunker - busting bombs to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities if the US joins the Israel - Iran war [1] - Japan plans to cut the issuance of 20 - year, 30 - year, and 40 - year bonds by 100 billion yen each in each auction from July until the end of March 2026, reducing the ultra - long - term bond issuance by about 10% this fiscal year. The finance ministry will increase short - term and household - designed bond issuance to fill the gap [1] - The US FDA has approved Gilead's lenapavir for pre - exposure prevention of HIV. Clinical results show it can reduce the HIV infection rate by 99.9% with only two doses a year [1] - The CEO of JD CoinChain says payment - type stablecoins will play a "disruptive" positive role in Web3 international trade and plans to launch stablecoins pegged to the Hong Kong dollar and other currencies [1] - After Israel's attack on Iran, the rent of super - large crude oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz has more than doubled in a week, rising from $19,998 to $47,609 per day, a 138% increase [1] - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) data shows that the platinum market will have a significant deficit for the third consecutive year in 2025, with an expected shortage of 966,000 ounces [1] Global Economic Logic - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are escalating. The US - China phased framework agreement has stabilized global economic expectations. The US Markit manufacturing PMI in May was 52.0, indicating continued expansion. US consumer credit in April doubled to $17.9 billion. China is addressing cut - throat competition. The European Central Bank has cut rates for the 8th time, and Germany has expanded its military by 30%, driving up European manufacturing. A potential oil price spike would take time to cause global inflation [1]