Core Viewpoint - The CPI report is perceived as somewhat subjective, showing slightly weaker data than some forecasts, but the impact of tariffs is expected to become more pronounced in July and August [1] Group 1 - The CPI data is slightly below expectations from various forecasting agencies [1] - The performance of commodity prices in June was relatively strong [1] - The report does not alter the fundamental views of those who believe the worst of tariff-driven price increases is yet to come [1] Group 2 - For those who think inflation transmission will be slower and less impactful due to companies striving to maintain market share in a weakening demand environment, the report also does not change their perspective [1]

美联储传声筒：今天的CPI报告具有"可自行选择解读角度"的特性 金十数据7月15日讯，"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos评论美国6月CPI数据：今天的CPI报告具有"你可以 自行选择解读角度"的特性。核心CPI在6月环比上涨0.23%，这恰好是过去12个月核心CPI月度涨幅的中 位数（也就是说，有6个月高于该水平，有6个月低于该水平）。这个数字略偏温和，略低于一些预测者 的预期。但关键在于，大多数预测者认为7月和8月才会看到更明显的关税影响，而6月的商品价格表现 相对更强劲。因此，如果你原本认为关税驱动的涨价冲击还在后头，这份报告并不会改变你的看法。同 样地，如果你一开始就认为通胀的传导会更慢、冲击更小，那么这份报告也不会动摇你原有的判断。 ...

Core Insights - The impact of tariffs on U.S. consumer prices has been unexpectedly muted, with significant effects yet to materialize [1][2] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the core PCE inflation will rise to 3.3% by the end of 2025, with tariffs contributing approximately 1% to this increase [1][7] Delayed Transmission of Tariff Costs - The effective tariff rate is expected to increase by about 9 percentage points due to announced tariffs, with a total expected increase of around 14 percentage points [2] - As of May, the effective tariff rate had only risen by 7.2 percentage points, indicating a lag in the expected impact [2] - Three main factors contribute to this delay: the timing of tariff implementation, the ability for importers to defer tariff payments, and companies stockpiling goods ahead of tariff increases [2][5] Foreign Exporters Bearing Costs - Foreign exporters are absorbing approximately 20% of the tariff costs by lowering export prices, a significant increase from nearly zero during the 2018-2019 trade conflict [3][4] Consumer Price Transmission - The transmission of tariff costs to consumers is slow, with only 0.3% of the expected price increase realized in the first month after tariff implementation [5] - The transmission rate increases over time, reaching 40% by the third month, compared to a faster transmission during the previous trade conflict [5][6] Inflation Forecasts - Despite the delayed transmission of tariff costs, Goldman Sachs maintains its inflation forecast, estimating that announced tariffs have raised core PCE prices by about 6 basis points since January [7] - The firm anticipates that all tariff impacts will push core PCE up by approximately 1 percentage point by December, leading to an annual inflation rate of 3.3% [7]

Group 1 - The key focus for bonds in the overseas market is the Federal Reserve's policy, with expectations of monetary easing due to limited impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation [1] - The U.S. import price index has shown minimal fluctuation despite the imposition of tariffs, indicating limited transmission to CPI and PPI [3][4] - The core PPI in the U.S. increased by only 0.1% in May, contrasting sharply with the 10% rise in tariffs, suggesting that inflation is a major constraint on the Federal Reserve's easing policy [4][7] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's current federal funds rate of 4.5% is among the highest globally, with core CPI and core PPI around 2%, indicating significant real interest rates [7] - The expectation is for the Federal Reserve to lower rates three times by the end of the year, starting from the September meeting, potentially bringing the rate down to 3.75% [7][8] - The market anticipates a more dovish shift from the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year, despite the challenges in predicting inflation trends [8] Group 3 - In the context of trade negotiations, there remains a high level of uncertainty, leading to a recommendation to focus on the 10-year Treasury ETF (511260) as a core investment tool [9] - The 10-year Treasury yield is considered a key indicator of the bond market, and the ETF offers advantages such as T+0 trading [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector is (Bullish) [1] Report's Core View - The upward direction of the global economy remains unchanged despite ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The conclusion is based on factors such as the US-China agreement stabilizing economic expectations, the expansion of the US manufacturing sector, growth in US consumer credit, China's efforts to address cut - throat competition, and the recovery of European manufacturing [1] Summary by Related Content Important Information - The Fed's June dot - plot shows an extreme trend of "either zero rate cuts or two rate cuts". Powell indicates that rate cuts require confirmation of tariff impacts on inflation and face new obstacles like Middle - East conflict escalation and unexpected food price surges, with key decisions postponed to after summer [1] - US President Trump has approved an attack plan on Iran but hasn't issued a final order, aiming to force Iran to abandon its nuclear program through threats [1] - Trump has repeatedly asked military advisors about the effectiveness of using giant bunker - busting bombs to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities if the US joins the Israel - Iran war [1] - Japan plans to cut the issuance of 20 - year, 30 - year, and 40 - year bonds by 100 billion yen each in each auction from July until the end of March 2026, reducing the ultra - long - term bond issuance by about 10% this fiscal year. The finance ministry will increase short - term and household - designed bond issuance to fill the gap [1] - The US FDA has approved Gilead's lenapavir for pre - exposure prevention of HIV. Clinical results show it can reduce the HIV infection rate by 99.9% with only two doses a year [1] - The CEO of JD CoinChain says payment - type stablecoins will play a "disruptive" positive role in Web3 international trade and plans to launch stablecoins pegged to the Hong Kong dollar and other currencies [1] - After Israel's attack on Iran, the rent of super - large crude oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz has more than doubled in a week, rising from $19,998 to $47,609 per day, a 138% increase [1] - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) data shows that the platinum market will have a significant deficit for the third consecutive year in 2025, with an expected shortage of 966,000 ounces [1] Global Economic Logic - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are escalating. The US - China phased framework agreement has stabilized global economic expectations. The US Markit manufacturing PMI in May was 52.0, indicating continued expansion. US consumer credit in April doubled to $17.9 billion. China is addressing cut - throat competition. The European Central Bank has cut rates for the 8th time, and Germany has expanded its military by 30%, driving up European manufacturing. A potential oil price spike would take time to cause global inflation [1]