Group 1 - The Eurozone economy unexpectedly rose to its highest level since May 2024, driven by strong performance in Germany, despite weakness in France [1] - The Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased from 51.2 in September to 52.2 in October, surpassing the critical threshold of 50 that separates economic expansion from contraction [1] - The growth was primarily supported by the services sector, with Germany achieving its best monthly performance since May 2023, while France's PMI has declined for 14 consecutive months due to political turmoil [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is unlikely to lower interest rates further, maintaining borrowing costs as inflation approaches the 2% target [2] - The recent PMI data supports the ECB's decision to keep rates unchanged, indicating resilience in the Eurozone economy despite U.S. tariff increases [2] - Service sector price inflation remains moderate, with a slight increase in sales price inflation but still close to long-term averages, suggesting low short-term risks [2]

欧元区经济在5月意外萎缩，服务业表现跌至16个月以来最差水平，制造业的小幅改善被服务业的下跌所抵消。 22日，S&P Global发布的采购经理人指数（PMI）显示： "欧元区经济似乎难以站稳脚跟。" 法国的经济活动已连续9个月萎缩，综合PMI仅从4月份的47.8小幅上升至48，依旧远低于50的门槛。德法服务业活动均出现下跌。 数据发布后，货币市场加大了对欧洲央行今年将再降息两次的押注。对政策敏感的德国两年期国债收益率下跌3个基点至1.84%。欧元兑美元汇率扩大 跌幅，一度下跌0.3%至1.1296美元。 欧元区私营部门活动意外收缩，服务业表现疲软是主要拖累 根据S&P Global的数据显示，欧元区5月私营部门活动意外萎缩。汉堡商业银行的经济学家Cyrus de la Rubia表示： 他指出，虽然服务业的国外需求有所放缓，但国内需求的疲软才是拖累该行业的主要原因。服务业的疲软表现是导致整体PMI下降的关键因素，这预示 着欧元区经济复苏的道路将更加艰难。 5月份欧元区制造业的表现好于服务业，这是自疫情爆发以来首次出现的情况。De la Rubia认为，这可能与应对美国贸易关税的措施有关，而较低的油 价也可能 ...