1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The pulp market is expected to remain in a volatile and weak pattern in the short - term. The supply - demand fundamentals have not improved substantially, with port inventories continuing to accumulate at a high level and downstream demand remaining weak, resulting in limited support for pulp prices [99]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of November 20, 2025, the pulp inventory in Changshu Port was 555,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous period, a 2.5% month - on - month decrease; the inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.463 million tons, an increase of 58,000 tons from the previous week, a 4.1% month - on - month increase; the inventory in Gaolan Port was 51,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous week, a 24.4% month - on - month increase. The sample inventory of China's major pulp ports was 2.173 million tons, an increase of 63,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.0% month - on - month increase [5][6]. - In October 2025, the import volume of bleached softwood pulp was 691,000 tons, a 0.1% month - on - month increase and a 6.0% year - on - year increase. The cumulative import volume for the year was 7.122 million tons, a 2.7% cumulative year - on - year increase. The import volume of bleached hardwood pulp was 1.318 million tons, a 2.8% month - on - month decrease and an 8.2% year - on - year increase. The cumulative import volume for the year was 13.826 million tons, a 10.3% cumulative year - on - year increase [6][7]. 3.2 Market Data - **Market Trends**: Included the analysis of the basis of silver star and Russian needle pulp, the spread between silver star and Russian needle pulp, and the monthly spread of 01 - 03 and 03 - 05 [13][14][19]. - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: On November 21, 2025, the basis of silver star pulp was 222 yuan/ton, a 217.14% month - on - month increase; the basis of Russian needle pulp was - 28 yuan/ton, a 65.00% month - on - month increase; the spread between silver star and Russian needle pulp was 250 yuan/ton, a 66.67% month - on - month increase [14]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price**: - The spread between softwood and hardwood pulp decreased. On November 21, 2025, the spread between silver star and goldfish pulp was 1,050 yuan/ton, an 8.70% month - on - month decrease; the spread between Russian needle and goldfish pulp was 800 yuan/ton, a 20.00% month - on - month decrease [23][25]. - The import profit of softwood and hardwood pulp decreased. On November 21, 2025, the import profit of silver star softwood pulp was - 76.03 yuan/ton, a 373.44% month - on - month decrease; the import profit of star hardwood pulp was 45.21 yuan/ton, a 6.32% month - on - month decrease [28][30]. - The price of imported softwood pulp decreased. On November 21, 2025, the price of silver star pulp was 5,450 yuan/ton, a 1.80% month - on - month decrease; the price of Russian needle pulp was 5,200 yuan/ton, a 3.70% month - on - month decrease [32][33]. - The price of hardwood pulp was relatively stable. On November 21, 2025, the price of goldfish pulp was 4,400 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [37]. - **Supply**: - The price of wood chips in East China was differentiated. On November 21, 2025, the purchase price of eucalyptus wood chips by Liansheng Pulp and Paper was 1,200 yuan/ton, a 1.69% month - on - month increase; the purchase price of pine wood chips by Wuzhou Special Paper was 1,060 yuan/ton, a 9.40% month - on - month decrease [42][44]. - The price of domestic pulp was stable, and the supply of hardwood pulp increased. On November 20, 2025, the weekly output of domestic hardwood pulp was 117,000 tons, a 27.17% month - on - month increase [46][48]. - In September 2025, the pulp port inventory in Europe decreased month - on - month; in October, the inventory days of softwood pulp in Europe decreased month - on - month [50][52]. - In August 2025, the shipment volume of W20 softwood pulp was at a low level, and the inventory was high; the shipment volume of hardwood pulp continued to be at a high level, but the inventory days were low [54][56]. - In August 2025, the export volume of softwood pulp from four countries (Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States) to China decreased month - on - month and was at a low level year - on - year; in September, the export volume of Finland to China increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year; in October, the export volume of Chilean softwood pulp to China continued to increase month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [60]. - In September 2025, the export volume of hardwood pulp from four countries (Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile) increased both month - on - month and year - on - year; in October, the export volume of Brazilian hardwood pulp decreased slightly month - on - month, and the export volume of Uruguay decreased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [64]. - In October 2025, China's pulp imports were differentiated. The import volume of softwood pulp increased by 0.06% month - on - month, the import volume of hardwood pulp decreased by 2.77% month - on - month, and the import volume of unbleached pulp and chemimechanical pulp increased significantly [66][68]. - **Demand**: - **Offset Paper**: The average price of offset paper enterprises was stable. Due to industry profitability and production and sales pressure, some factories' production lines were converted or the production load was reduced. The demand was weak, with no concentrated supply of publication orders and dull social orders [70]. - **Coated Paper**: The price of coated paper decreased slightly. Some production lines continued the maintenance state, and the supply decreased slightly. The demand was weak, with no concentrated supply of publication orders and no obvious improvement in social orders [74]. - **White Cardboard**: The market price of white cardboard was stable. The production cost increased and then stabilized. The supply was stable, and the inventory pressure of paper mills was not large. The demand was mainly for rigid needs [78]. - **Household Paper**: The market price of household paper was stable. The terminal demand did not show an obvious recovery, and the inventory pressure of some paper mills was difficult to release in the short term. The cost support of raw material pulp was weak [82]. - **Terminal Demand**: In October 2025, the retail sales of cultural and office supplies, cosmetics, and daily necessities increased significantly year - on - year [86]. 3.4 This Week's View Summary - **Supply**: In October 2025, the import volume of bleached softwood pulp increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. As of November 20, 2025, the sample inventory of China's major pulp ports increased for two consecutive weeks [98]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand was weak, and the cost transmission was difficult. The downstream paper industry was not performing well, and the demand was weak. The paper mills had poor profitability and limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials [99]. - **View**: The pulp market is expected to remain in a volatile and weak pattern in the short - term, as the supply - demand fundamentals have not improved substantially [99]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies for single - side trading; observe for inter - period and inter - variety trading; investors meeting the suitability requirements can consider selling out - of - the - money options in the range of [5000 - 6000] [99].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term. Supply - side pressure is difficult to ease quickly, with increasing imports and slow inventory reduction at ports. The demand side has certain rigid support but lacks obvious growth momentum [102]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of September 25, 2025, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 452,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 56,000 tons (11.0%); at Qingdao Port, it was 1.425 million tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons (0.5%); at Gaolan Port, it was 41,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons (16.3%). The total inventory of mainstream ports was 2.033 million tons, a decrease of 79,000 tons (3.7%) [5][6]. - In August 2025, the import volume of bleached softwood pulp was 614,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.1%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 5.74 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The import volume of bleached hardwood pulp was 1.258 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 11.152 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.7% [6][7]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On September 26, 2025, the basis for Silver Star was 634 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.32% and a year - on - year increase of 89.82%; the basis for Russian Needle was 184 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.10% and a year - on - year increase of 258.62%; the Silver Star - Russian Needle spread was 450 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week or year - on - year change [16]. - The 11 - 01 month spread was - 256 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14.09%; the 01 - 05 month spread was - 24 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 33.33% [21]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The spread between softwood and hardwood pulp was stable. On September 26, 2025, the spread between Silver Star and Goldfish was 1,430 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 3.62%; the spread between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 980 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 5.38% [28]. - The import profit of softwood and hardwood pulp decreased. On September 26, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp (Silver Star) was - 58 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.38% and a year - on - year decrease of 394.60%; the import profit of hardwood pulp (Star) was - 171.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.86% and a year - on - year decrease of 294.01% [31]. - The prices of different types of pulp showed different trends. On September 26, 2025, the prices of softwood pulp such as Silver Star, Kalip, and Northwood were 5,650 yuan/ton, 5,800 yuan/ton, and 6,050 yuan/ton respectively, with no week - on - week change; the prices of hardwood pulp such as Goldfish, Star, and Bird were 4,220 yuan/ton, 4,250 yuan/ton, and 4,200 yuan/ton respectively, with no week - on - week change [34][38]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase price in East China was generally stable, with a slight decrease in the purchase price of poplar chips by Champion Paper [43]. - The price of domestic chemimechanical pulp decreased slightly this week, the price of hardwood pulp was stable, and the supply increased. On September 25, 2025, the daily average price of domestic chemimechanical pulp was 3,825 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22%; the weekly output of domestic hardwood pulp was 131,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.34% [47][49]. - In July 2025, the European port inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, and the global pulp out - port volume increased seasonally month - on - month but was relatively low year - on - year [52]. - The W20 softwood pulp shipment volume was at a low level with high inventory, while the hardwood pulp shipment volume remained high, but the inventory days continued to decline [54]. - In July 2025, the export volume of softwood pulp from Canada, Finland, Chile, and the United States to China increased significantly month - on - month, and in August, the export volume of Chilean softwood pulp to China decreased month - on - month [58]. - In July 2025, the export volume of hardwood pulp from Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile increased month - on - month, and in August, the export volume of Brazilian hardwood pulp to China decreased seasonally month - on - month, while the export volume of Uruguayan hardwood pulp to China increased significantly [62]. - In August 2025, China's total pulp import volume decreased, with softwood pulp down 5.01% month - on - month, hardwood pulp down 6.92% month - on - month, and chemimechanical pulp down 27.41% month - on - month [66]. 3.3.3 Demand - The price of offset paper was weakly sorted this week. The supply was sufficient, but the downstream demand was weak, and the market was in a stalemate [70]. - The average price of coated paper was slightly adjusted. The supply increased, but the consumption was still sluggish due to the macro - environment and electronic media impact [74]. - The supply and demand of white cardboard both showed an upward trend. The large manufacturers planned to increase the order - taking price by 100 yuan/ton in October, and the market low - price increased [78]. - The market of tissue paper was flat, the terminal demand was weak, and the industry's overall operating rate remained low [82]. - In August 2025, the retail sales in the pulp terminal demand area recovered slightly seasonally month - on - month, and the year - on - year growth of cultural office supplies, daily necessities, and books and magazines was significant [86]. 3.3.4 Inventory - On September 26, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp (warehouse) was 226,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15% and a year - on - year decrease of 44.18%; the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp (factory) was 9,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 49.34% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.47% [89]. - The port inventory was at a medium - low level within the year, and the inventory of domestic mainstream ports showed a destocking trend this period [98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - This week, the pulp market may follow the market trend and undergo a corrective adjustment. The supply side is under pressure with high port inventories and abundant spot supplies. The demand side faces cost - transmission obstacles, and the poor profit of paper mills dampens the procurement sentiment for pulp. The futures market is dominated by macro - sentiment while the spot market is weak, and the divergence between futures and spot prices may improve. It is expected that the pulp market will decline following the overall market atmosphere this week [79]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - As of July 24, 2025, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 57.6 tons, down 3.2 tons from the previous period, a 5% MoM decrease; the inventory at Qingdao Port was 136.2 tons, up 1.3 tons from last week, a 1.0% MoM increase; the inventory at Gaolan Port was 8.1 tons, down 0.8 tons from last week, a 9.0% MoM decrease. The total inventory of China's major pulp ports was 214.3 tons, down 3.8 tons from the previous period, a 1.7% MoM decrease [6]. - In June 2025, the import volume of bleached softwood pulp was 67.8 tons, a 6.1% MoM decrease and a 23.3% YoY increase; the import volume of bleached hardwood pulp was 143.5 tons, a 11.0% MoM increase and an 18.9% YoY increase; the import volume of softwood chips was 7.2 tons, a 234.9% MoM increase and a 125.9% YoY increase; the import volume of hardwood chips was 129.2 tons, a 0.2% MoM increase and a 1.3% YoY decrease [6]. 3.2 Market Data - **Market Trends**: On July 25, 2025, the basis of silver star pulp was 400 yuan/ton, a 36.31% MoM decrease and a 7.41% YoY decrease; the basis of Russian needle pulp was - 20 yuan/ton, a 350.00% MoM decrease and a 162.50% YoY decrease; the price difference between silver star and Russian needle pulp was 420 yuan/ton, a 32.26% MoM decrease and a 5.00% YoY increase [11]. - **Basis and Spread**: On July 25, 2025, the 09 - 11 spread was 94 yuan/ton, a 193.75% MoM increase; the 11 - 01 spread was - 146 yuan/ton, a 19.78% MoM increase [17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price**: The price difference between silver star and goldfish pulp decreased by 2.75% MoM and increased by 86.32% YoY; the price difference between Russian needle and goldfish pulp increased by 12.50% MoM and 145.45% YoY. The import profit of silver star pulp increased by 2804% MoM and 11502% YoY; the import profit of star pulp increased by 277.35% MoM and 103.50% YoY [24][32]. - **Supply**: In May 2025, the European port inventory increased both MoM and YoY; the global pulp out - port volume increased MoM. In June 2025, the pulp import volume showed a differentiated performance, with the softwood pulp import volume decreasing by 6.07% MoM and the hardwood pulp import volume increasing by 10.96% MoM [47][50]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of white cardboard, double - offset paper, and copperplate paper decreased slightly, while that of tissue paper increased slightly. The profits of white cardboard, tissue paper, double - offset paper, and copperplate paper decreased to varying degrees [55][65]. - **Inventory**: The futures inventory decreased, and the spot inventory of major ports decreased slightly. As of July 25, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in warehouses was 23.65 tons, a 0.11% MoM decrease and a 50.50% YoY decrease; the warehouse receipt quantity in factories was 1.92 tons, a 0.52% MoM decrease and a 40.25% YoY decrease [69]. 3.4 This Week's View Summary - **Supply**: The supply side pressure is solidified, with high port inventories and abundant spot supplies. The major port inventory decreased slightly this period [79]. - **Demand**: The demand side has cost - transmission obstacles, and the poor profit of paper mills dampens the procurement sentiment for pulp [79]. - **View**: The futures market is dominated by macro - sentiment while the spot market is weak. The divergence between futures and spot prices may improve, and the pulp market may decline following the overall market atmosphere this week [79]. - **Valuation**: The basis of silver star pulp in Shandong decreased by 64 yuan/ton [79]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish approach for a single - sided trade; use a reverse spread strategy for the 9 - 1 and 11 - 1 contracts [79].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of SP futures contract rules expands the scope of hedging, attracting more funds [59] - The growth rate of social inventory has accelerated, which is relatively unfavorable for all non - standard spot goods including broadleaf pulp [59] - The broadleaf pulp has stabilized, and the spread between broadleaf and softwood pulp has strengthened [59] - The domestic papermaking industry mainly uses more broadleaf pulp, but overall it still faces great challenges [59] - The domestic manufacturing data is better than that of the United States, which is relatively positive for SP, but there is more downside space for pulp prices [59] - The pulp market fundamentals are weak [59] Summary by Directory Coniferous Supply Impact on SP Unilateral - As of May 2025, European bleached softwood kraft pulp inventory decreased month - on - month to 238,000 tons, consumption increased month - on - month to 269,000 tons, and the inventory - to - sales ratio was 0.89 times, with a 4.7% year - on - year increase in the average of the past 12 months, which is bearish for SP but with limited impact [9] - As of May 2025, domestic coniferous wood chip imports increased for two consecutive months to 21,000 tons (equivalent to 11,000 tons of pulp), coniferous pulp imports decreased for two consecutive months to 821,000 tons, and the total long - fiber imports decreased by 4.3% year - on - year in the past 6 months, which is bearish for SP but with limited impact [9] Broadleaf Supply Impact on Broadleaf - Coniferous Spread - As of May 2025, broadleaf wood chip imports increased month - on - month to 1.289 million tons (equivalent to 644,000 tons of pulp), broadleaf pulp imports increased month - on - month to 1.309 million tons; coniferous wood chip imports increased for two consecutive months to 21,000 tons (equivalent to 11,000 tons of pulp), coniferous pulp imports decreased for two consecutive months to 821,000 tons. The short - fiber to long - fiber import ratio was 2.35 times, with a 10.5% year - on - year increase in the average of the past 12 months, which is bullish for the broadleaf - coniferous spread [16] - As of May 2025, the use of broadleaf pulp in domestic papermaking decreased month - on - month to 2.224 million tons, and the use of coniferous pulp decreased for three consecutive months to 523,000 tons. The consumption ratio was 4.26 times, with an 8.0% year - on - year increase in the average of the past 9 months, which is bullish for the broadleaf - coniferous spread [16] International Pulp and Paper Trade Impact on SP Unilateral - In May 2025, the domestic pulp import value increased month - on - month to $1.906 billion, and in April, the US pulp import value decreased month - on - month to $308 million. The combined value decreased by 3.6% year - on - year in the past 3 months, which is bearish for SP but with limited impact [24] - In May 2025, the total export value of paper products from Japan, South Korea, and Brazil was $565 million, with a 5.4% year - on - year decrease in the past 3 months, which is bearish for SP [24] Port Inventory Impact on SP Unilateral - As of July 4, 2025, the total pulp inventory in major ports was 2.392 million tons, a 9.8% year - on - year increase, which is bearish for SP [30] Port Inventory Impact on Broadleaf - Coniferous - As of July 4, 2025, the ratio of the four - port inventory to the warehouse receipt inventory increased for four consecutive months to 8.97 times, with a 60.7% year - on - year increase in the average of the past 6 months, which is relatively bearish for broadleaf pulp [35] Manufacturing PMI Impact - As of June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI increased for two consecutive months to 49.7 points, with a 0.2% year - on - year increase in the 12 - month average, with the growth rate narrowing [36] - As of June 2025, the US manufacturing PMI increased month - on - month to 49.0 points, with a 1.3% year - on - year increase in the 12 - month average, with the growth rate narrowing, which is bearish for SP [37] Domestic Papermaking Output and Inventory Impact on SP Unilateral - In April 2025, domestic papermaking electricity consumption decreased month - on - month to 838 million kWh, with a 0.6% year - on - year increase in the past 12 months, with the growth rate narrowing, which is bearish for SP [46] - In April 2025, domestic papermaking finished - product inventory increased for four consecutive months to 77.57 billion yuan, with a 5.6% year - on - year increase in the past 12 - month average, which is bearish for SP [46] US Policy and International Oil Price Impact on SP Unilateral - As of early July, the US economic policy uncertainty index increased month - on - month to 536.4 points, with an 84.5% year - on - year increase in the past 12 - month average, which is bullish for SP [52] - As of early July, the Brent crude oil price decreased month - on - month to $68.3 per barrel, with a 21.3% year - on - year decrease in the past 3 - month average, with the decline rate narrowing, which is bullish for SP [52] International Trade and US Dollar Index Impact on SP Unilateral - In May 2025, the domestic import and export volume decreased month - on - month to $529 billion, with a 2.1% year - on - year increase in the past 6 - month cumulative value, with the growth rate narrowing, which is bullish for SP valuation [58] - In June 2025, the real broad - based US dollar index decreased for five consecutive months to 114.9 points, with a 5.7% year - on - year increase in the past 9 - month average, which is bearish for SP [58]