国泰君安期货·能源化工 纸浆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情数据 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 行情走势 基差与月差 现货价格 供给 库存 需求 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1.【常熟港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年11月20日，中国纸浆常熟港库存55.5万吨，较上周期下降1.4万吨，环比下降2.5%。本周常熟港库存呈现去库走势。 2.【青岛港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年11月20日，中国青岛港港内及港外仓库纸浆库存146.3万吨，较上周上涨5.8万吨，环比上涨4.1%。本周期青岛港库存周期内 呈现累库的走势。 3.【高栏港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年11月20日，中国纸浆高栏港库存5.1万吨，较上周上涨1.0万吨，环比上涨24.4%。本周期高栏港库存呈现累库的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term. Supply - side pressure is difficult to ease quickly, with increasing imports and slow inventory reduction at ports. The demand side has certain rigid support but lacks obvious growth momentum [102]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of September 25, 2025, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 452,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 56,000 tons (11.0%); at Qingdao Port, it was 1.425 million tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons (0.5%); at Gaolan Port, it was 41,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons (16.3%). The total inventory of mainstream ports was 2.033 million tons, a decrease of 79,000 tons (3.7%) [5][6]. - In August 2025, the import volume of bleached softwood pulp was 614,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.1%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 5.74 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The import volume of bleached hardwood pulp was 1.258 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 11.152 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.7% [6][7]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On September 26, 2025, the basis for Silver Star was 634 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.32% and a year - on - year increase of 89.82%; the basis for Russian Needle was 184 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.10% and a year - on - year increase of 258.62%; the Silver Star - Russian Needle spread was 450 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week or year - on - year change [16]. - The 11 - 01 month spread was - 256 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14.09%; the 01 - 05 month spread was - 24 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 33.33% [21]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The spread between softwood and hardwood pulp was stable. On September 26, 2025, the spread between Silver Star and Goldfish was 1,430 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 3.62%; the spread between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 980 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 5.38% [28]. - The import profit of softwood and hardwood pulp decreased. On September 26, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp (Silver Star) was - 58 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.38% and a year - on - year decrease of 394.60%; the import profit of hardwood pulp (Star) was - 171.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.86% and a year - on - year decrease of 294.01% [31]. - The prices of different types of pulp showed different trends. On September 26, 2025, the prices of softwood pulp such as Silver Star, Kalip, and Northwood were 5,650 yuan/ton, 5,800 yuan/ton, and 6,050 yuan/ton respectively, with no week - on - week change; the prices of hardwood pulp such as Goldfish, Star, and Bird were 4,220 yuan/ton, 4,250 yuan/ton, and 4,200 yuan/ton respectively, with no week - on - week change [34][38]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase price in East China was generally stable, with a slight decrease in the purchase price of poplar chips by Champion Paper [43]. - The price of domestic chemimechanical pulp decreased slightly this week, the price of hardwood pulp was stable, and the supply increased. On September 25, 2025, the daily average price of domestic chemimechanical pulp was 3,825 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22%; the weekly output of domestic hardwood pulp was 131,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.34% [47][49]. - In July 2025, the European port inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, and the global pulp out - port volume increased seasonally month - on - month but was relatively low year - on - year [52]. - The W20 softwood pulp shipment volume was at a low level with high inventory, while the hardwood pulp shipment volume remained high, but the inventory days continued to decline [54]. - In July 2025, the export volume of softwood pulp from Canada, Finland, Chile, and the United States to China increased significantly month - on - month, and in August, the export volume of Chilean softwood pulp to China decreased month - on - month [58]. - In July 2025, the export volume of hardwood pulp from Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile increased month - on - month, and in August, the export volume of Brazilian hardwood pulp to China decreased seasonally month - on - month, while the export volume of Uruguayan hardwood pulp to China increased significantly [62]. - In August 2025, China's total pulp import volume decreased, with softwood pulp down 5.01% month - on - month, hardwood pulp down 6.92% month - on - month, and chemimechanical pulp down 27.41% month - on - month [66]. 3.3.3 Demand - The price of offset paper was weakly sorted this week. The supply was sufficient, but the downstream demand was weak, and the market was in a stalemate [70]. - The average price of coated paper was slightly adjusted. The supply increased, but the consumption was still sluggish due to the macro - environment and electronic media impact [74]. - The supply and demand of white cardboard both showed an upward trend. The large manufacturers planned to increase the order - taking price by 100 yuan/ton in October, and the market low - price increased [78]. - The market of tissue paper was flat, the terminal demand was weak, and the industry's overall operating rate remained low [82]. - In August 2025, the retail sales in the pulp terminal demand area recovered slightly seasonally month - on - month, and the year - on - year growth of cultural office supplies, daily necessities, and books and magazines was significant [86]. 3.3.4 Inventory - On September 26, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp (warehouse) was 226,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15% and a year - on - year decrease of 44.18%; the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp (factory) was 9,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 49.34% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.47% [89]. - The port inventory was at a medium - low level within the year, and the inventory of domestic mainstream ports showed a destocking trend this period [98].

Core Viewpoint - The double-sided coated paper industry is facing challenges due to declining demand, high inventory levels, and low production margins, despite an increase in production capacity and some recovery in supply from major producers [3][4][10]. Industry Overview - Double-sided coated paper, also known as "Dawlin paper," is a major type of cultural printing paper, primarily used in book printing [1]. - The upstream products for double-sided coated paper are pulp, with production costs heavily reliant on various types of pulp, which account for 60%-70% of the total cost [2]. - The domestic production capacity of double-sided coated paper has grown significantly from 7.89 million tons in 2010 to an expected 18 million tons by the end of 2025 [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The main downstream application for double-sided coated paper is book printing, which accounts for 88% of its usage [3]. - In 2024, the domestic production of double-sided coated paper is projected to be 10.49 million tons, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year [4]. - However, the production capacity utilization rate is low, averaging 62% in 2024, with a significant drop in production observed in early 2025 due to weak market demand [7][8]. Export and Import Trends - In 2024, the import volume of double-sided coated paper is expected to be 200,000 tons, while exports are projected at 968,000 tons, resulting in a net export of 770,000 tons [3][9]. - The net export volume has decreased in 2025 compared to the previous year, indicating a slowdown in overseas demand [9]. Inventory Levels - As of September 12, 2024, the total inventory of double-sided coated paper reached a record high of 1.744 million tons, with manufacturers and traders actively reducing stock levels [10]. Profitability and Pricing - As of September 12, 2024, domestic producers are facing losses of 135 yuan per ton, with historical price fluctuations showing a maximum profit of 1,562 yuan and a minimum loss of 874 yuan per ton [11][15]. - The price of high-quality double-sided coated paper is currently between 4,500 and 4,800 yuan per ton, with expectations of continued low prices due to high supply and inventory levels [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - This week, the pulp market may follow the market trend and undergo a corrective adjustment. The supply side is under pressure with high port inventories and abundant spot supplies. The demand side faces cost - transmission obstacles, and the poor profit of paper mills dampens the procurement sentiment for pulp. The futures market is dominated by macro - sentiment while the spot market is weak, and the divergence between futures and spot prices may improve. It is expected that the pulp market will decline following the overall market atmosphere this week [79]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - As of July 24, 2025, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 57.6 tons, down 3.2 tons from the previous period, a 5% MoM decrease; the inventory at Qingdao Port was 136.2 tons, up 1.3 tons from last week, a 1.0% MoM increase; the inventory at Gaolan Port was 8.1 tons, down 0.8 tons from last week, a 9.0% MoM decrease. The total inventory of China's major pulp ports was 214.3 tons, down 3.8 tons from the previous period, a 1.7% MoM decrease [6]. - In June 2025, the import volume of bleached softwood pulp was 67.8 tons, a 6.1% MoM decrease and a 23.3% YoY increase; the import volume of bleached hardwood pulp was 143.5 tons, a 11.0% MoM increase and an 18.9% YoY increase; the import volume of softwood chips was 7.2 tons, a 234.9% MoM increase and a 125.9% YoY increase; the import volume of hardwood chips was 129.2 tons, a 0.2% MoM increase and a 1.3% YoY decrease [6]. 3.2 Market Data - **Market Trends**: On July 25, 2025, the basis of silver star pulp was 400 yuan/ton, a 36.31% MoM decrease and a 7.41% YoY decrease; the basis of Russian needle pulp was - 20 yuan/ton, a 350.00% MoM decrease and a 162.50% YoY decrease; the price difference between silver star and Russian needle pulp was 420 yuan/ton, a 32.26% MoM decrease and a 5.00% YoY increase [11]. - **Basis and Spread**: On July 25, 2025, the 09 - 11 spread was 94 yuan/ton, a 193.75% MoM increase; the 11 - 01 spread was - 146 yuan/ton, a 19.78% MoM increase [17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price**: The price difference between silver star and goldfish pulp decreased by 2.75% MoM and increased by 86.32% YoY; the price difference between Russian needle and goldfish pulp increased by 12.50% MoM and 145.45% YoY. The import profit of silver star pulp increased by 2804% MoM and 11502% YoY; the import profit of star pulp increased by 277.35% MoM and 103.50% YoY [24][32]. - **Supply**: In May 2025, the European port inventory increased both MoM and YoY; the global pulp out - port volume increased MoM. In June 2025, the pulp import volume showed a differentiated performance, with the softwood pulp import volume decreasing by 6.07% MoM and the hardwood pulp import volume increasing by 10.96% MoM [47][50]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of white cardboard, double - offset paper, and copperplate paper decreased slightly, while that of tissue paper increased slightly. The profits of white cardboard, tissue paper, double - offset paper, and copperplate paper decreased to varying degrees [55][65]. - **Inventory**: The futures inventory decreased, and the spot inventory of major ports decreased slightly. As of July 25, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in warehouses was 23.65 tons, a 0.11% MoM decrease and a 50.50% YoY decrease; the warehouse receipt quantity in factories was 1.92 tons, a 0.52% MoM decrease and a 40.25% YoY decrease [69]. 3.4 This Week's View Summary - **Supply**: The supply side pressure is solidified, with high port inventories and abundant spot supplies. The major port inventory decreased slightly this period [79]. - **Demand**: The demand side has cost - transmission obstacles, and the poor profit of paper mills dampens the procurement sentiment for pulp [79]. - **View**: The futures market is dominated by macro - sentiment while the spot market is weak. The divergence between futures and spot prices may improve, and the pulp market may decline following the overall market atmosphere this week [79]. - **Valuation**: The basis of silver star pulp in Shandong decreased by 64 yuan/ton [79]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish approach for a single - sided trade; use a reverse spread strategy for the 9 - 1 and 11 - 1 contracts [79].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The pulp market is expected to operate in a volatile and weak manner. The main contract of pulp futures dropped significantly during the week, hitting a new monthly low, intensifying the panic in the spot market. Demand is deeply weak, and supply pressure is increasing. The high port inventory and the expected arrival of new shipments from Brazil in July continue to put pressure on spot liquidity. The reduction in the quoted price of softwood pulp also weakens cost support [84]. Summary by Directory Industry News - As of June 26, 2025, the inventory of pulp in Changshu Port was 546,000 tons, a decrease of 39,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7%. The inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.352 million tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%. The inventory in Gaolan Port was 138,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 11.5%. The total inventory of mainstream port samples in China was 2.163 million tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.0% [6]. - In May 2025, the inventory days of bleached softwood pulp of 20 world commodity pulp suppliers increased by 5 days to 46 days, and the inventory days of bleached hardwood pulp increased by 4 days to 51 days. The total shipment volume in May increased by 1.9% month - on - month, with the shipment volume of bleached softwood pulp increasing by 4.4% and that of bleached hardwood pulp increasing by 1.2% [6]. - In May 2025, the import volume of bleached softwood pulp was 722,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.7% and a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 3.082 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.9%. The import volume of bleached hardwood pulp was 1.293 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.8% and a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 7.108 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.0% [6]. Market Data - On June 27, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 854 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 8.17% and a year - on - year increase of 151.18%. The basis of Russian Needle was 24 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 81.54% and a year - on - year increase of 140.00%. The price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 830 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.75% and a year - on - year increase of 107.50% [15]. - On June 27, 2025, the 09 - 11 month spread was 20 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 44.44%. The 11 - 01 month spread was - 220 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 168.29% [20]. Fundamental Data - **Price**: - On June 27, 2025, the price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 1,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.56% and a year - on - year increase of 123.53%. The price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 1,070 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.96% and a year - on - year increase of 137.78% [29]. - The import profit of Silver Star was 42 yuan/ton on June 27, 2025, a month - on - month decrease of 69.01% and a year - on - year increase of 107.79%. The star of hardwood pulp had no quotation in June, and the supply is expected to partially resume in July [34][35]. - On June 27, 2025, the prices of Silver Star, Cariboo, Northern Wood, Lion Brand, and Russian Needle were 5,950 yuan/ton, 6,050 yuan/ton, 6,250 yuan/ton, 6,050 yuan/ton, and 5,120 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 1.65%, 1.63%, 0.79%, 1.63%, and 2.48% respectively, and year - on - year decreases of 5.56%, 4.72%, 1.57%, 4.72%, and 13.22% respectively [36]. - On June 27, 2025, the prices of Goldfish, Star, Bird, and Broadleaf were 4,050 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.22% and year - on - year decreases of 25.69%, 25.00%, 25.00%, and 22.86% respectively [44]. - On June 27, 2025, the prices of Venus and Kunhe were 5,000 yuan/ton and 3,700 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 1.96% and 5.13% respectively, and year - on - year decreases of 8.26% and 3.90% respectively [48]. - **Supply**: - In April 2025, the inventory in European ports decreased month - on - month, and the global pulp departure volume decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The inventory in European ports was 1.352 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.77% and a year - on - year increase of 16.75%. The global pulp departure volume was 4.077 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.30% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.89% [51][52]. - In May 2025, the import volume of pulp showed differentiated month - on - month performance. The import volume of softwood pulp decreased by 4.75% month - on - month, and that of hardwood pulp increased by 7.84% month - on - month [54]. - **Demand**: - On June 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of white cardboard, household tissue paper, offset paper, and coated paper were 73.90%, 63.40%, 57.15%, and 56.33% respectively, with month - on - month changes of 2.35%, 2.09%, 4.67%, and - 0.39% respectively, and year - on - year changes of - 3.90%, 0.06%, - 10.30%, and - 11.90% respectively [58]. - The average prices of white cardboard, wood pulp household tissue paper, offset paper, and coated paper on June 27, 2025 were 4,065 yuan/ton, 5,666.67 yuan/ton, 5,125 yuan/ton, and 5,400 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 0.73%, 1.16%, 0.73%, and 0.00% respectively, and year - on - year decreases of 6.77%, 15.00%, 9.99%, and 4.85% respectively [59]. - The profits of white cardboard, household tissue paper, offset paper, and coated paper on June 26 or 27, 2025 were 600 yuan/ton, 243.10 yuan/ton, 170.57 yuan/ton, and 912 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month changes of 2.56%, - 18.67%, 32.67%, and 4.29% respectively, and year - on - year increases of 76.47%, 358.51%, 255.35%, and 90.20% respectively [72]. - **Inventory**: - On June 27, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in warehouses was 228,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.91% and a year - on - year decrease of 49.06%. The warehouse receipt quantity in factories was 16,300 tons, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 49.25% [73]. - On June 27, 2025, the inventories of Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, and the sum of Gaolan Port, Tianjin Port, and Rizhao Port were 1.352 million tons, 546,000 tons, and 265,000 tons respectively, with month - on - month changes of - 0.44%, - 6.67%, and 0.00% respectively, and year - on - year increases of 33.20%, 4.60%, and 52.30% respectively. The total inventory of the five ports was 2.163 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04% and a year - on - year increase of 26.42% [80]. Operation Suggestion - Pulp is expected to operate in a volatile and weak manner. It is predicted that pulp will maintain volatile consolidation and operate weakly in the near future. The main factors include weak demand, high port inventory, expected arrival of new shipments from Brazil, and the reduction in the quoted price of softwood pulp [84].