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中金:预计2026年基建投资增速为4.5%
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-25 00:26
炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报,权威,专业,及时,全面,助您挖掘潜力主题机会! 中金点睛 中金研究 2025年底中央经济工作会议[1]明确2026年"推动投资止跌回稳",我们对明年财政政策发力持相对乐观 的态度。我们认为在地产持续筑底背景下,基建投资仍将作为稳增长的重要手段,预计2026年基建投资 增速为4.5%,建议围绕"高股息央国企、高弹性西部基建、高景气专业工程、高需求海外市场"投资主线 积极布局:1)看好西部基建区域性投资机会,特别是四川省基建投资高景气度;2)看好化债+国企改 革背景下估值修复空间较大的建筑央企;3)制造业投资有望企稳回升,看好受益于半导体资本开支景 气上行的洁净室工程;4)海外市场有望成为第二增长曲线,关注建筑企业出海逻辑的加速兑现。 摘要 化债带动建筑央企存量资产盘活及报表质量改善。建筑央企PB伴随应收类资产占比提升而持续走低, 当前均不足1倍,我们判断2026年化债工作稳步推进,地方资金链条捋顺后有望直接驱动建筑央企估值 修复及报表质量改善。中长期看,建筑央企仍有望凭借龙头优势,不断提升行业集中度。 中西部基建投资具备较高潜力。中西部省份铁路、公路基础设施建设的潜力相对更大,且中央财 ...
中金公司:建筑存量出清与增量转型
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-12-25 00:13
中金公司研报表示,2025年底中央经济工作会议明确2026年"推动投资止跌回稳",我们对明年财政政策 发力持相对乐观的态度。我们认为在地产持续筑底背景下,基建投资仍将作为稳增长的重要手段,预计 2026年基建投资增速为4.5%,建议围绕"高股息央国企、高弹性西部基建、高景气专业工程、高需求海 外市场"投资主线积极布局:1)看好西部基建区域性投资机会,特别是四川省基建投资高景气度;2) 看好化债+国企改革背景下估值修复空间较大的建筑央企;3)制造业投资有望企稳回升,看好受益于 半导体资本开支景气上行的洁净室工程;4)海外市场有望成为第二增长曲线,关注建筑企业出海逻辑 的加速兑现。 ...
亚翔集成(603929):Q3业绩高增40%超预期,海外大单持续增厚利润
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-11-03 07:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a significant year-on-year revenue growth of 40% in Q3, exceeding expectations, with total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reaching 3.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 30% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 440 million yuan, an increase of 0.8% [1][2]. - The improvement in gross margin, which increased by 11 percentage points in Q3, has significantly enhanced the company's profitability, driven by the favorable profitability of overseas large orders [2][3]. - The company has a robust order backlog, with approximately 6.7 billion yuan in uncompleted contracts expected to support significant revenue growth in the coming year as these projects enter the construction phase [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company reported total revenue of 3.1 billion yuan, down 30% year-on-year, with quarterly revenues of 840 million, 850 million, and 1.43 billion yuan respectively [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period was 440 million yuan, reflecting a 0.8% increase year-on-year, with a notable 40% increase in Q3 [1][2]. - The comprehensive gross margin for Q1-Q3 was 21.76%, up 8.8 percentage points year-on-year, with a Q3 gross margin increase of 11 percentage points [2]. Order Backlog and Future Outlook - As of the end of 2024, the company disclosed an uncompleted order amount of approximately 3 billion yuan, with significant new contracts won in 2025, including a 3.2 billion yuan project and a 1.58 billion yuan project [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand for AI computing power, which is driving semiconductor capital expenditure recovery, leading to sustained overseas order growth [3]. Profitability and Valuation - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 735 million, 994 million, and 1.27 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.44, 4.66, and 5.95 yuan per share [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 12, 9, and 7 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating attractive valuation levels [4].