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全球产能周期或已进入“购设备”阶段
CMS· 2025-08-18 01:34
Group 1: Equipment Import Trends - Developed countries' excavator import values peaked and began to decline in H2 2023, while emerging markets like Indonesia and Romania continue to see increases[2] - Piling machine imports in developed countries have also peaked and started to decline, with Romania showing significant growth since mid-2024[2] - Most developed countries' bulldozer imports peaked in early 2023, with the U.S. experiencing the latest decline[2] Group 2: Construction Material Imports - Steel imports for most countries peaked in Q1 2023 and began to decline[3] - Cement imports in developed countries peaked mid-2023 but the decline has been limited, indicating ongoing demand in subsequent stages[3] - Emerging markets like Poland and Romania continue to expand their cement imports despite a general slowdown[3] Group 3: Construction Phases - Most economies have completed the "foundation" and "building structure" phases, now nearing the end of the "laying utilities" phase[4] - Countries like Japan, Romania, India, and Indonesia still show rising crane import values, suggesting ongoing demand for building structures[4] - The "laying utilities" phase is nearing completion as most economies see renewed imports of water pipes and electrical cables[4] Group 4: Equipment Purchase Phase - Some economies, including the U.S., India, Malaysia, and Romania, have entered the "equipment purchase" phase, with significant increases in imports of generators and transformers from 2021 to 2023[5] - Import values for milling machines have shown no significant growth from 2021 to 2023, but have started to rise in late 2024 in several developed countries[5] - Hydraulic press imports have increased in late 2024 across multiple economies, indicating a shift towards equipment acquisition[5]