地缘政治动荡推动黄金、白银期价大涨 美国突袭委内瑞拉并强行控制委总统马杜罗引发地缘政治动荡。受市场避险需求推动，纽约商品交易所 黄金和白银期货价格5日大幅上涨，2月黄金期价涨幅一度超过3%，3月白银期价涨幅一度超过7%。 一些市场分析师认为，如同2025年，地缘政治不稳定将继续成为2026年黄金需求和价格走势的关键驱动 因素。 美国时间周一，美股并未受到美国对委内瑞拉实施军事行动的显著干扰，市场倾向于认为军事行动的冲 击有限，不会引发更大规模的动荡，在金融股以及能源股普遍上涨的助推下，美国股市三大指数当天全 线上涨，截至收盘，道指上涨1.23%，再创历史新高，标普500指数上涨0.64%，纳指上涨0.69%。 市场避险需求推动5日国际金价、银价大涨 贵金属方面，受市场避险需求推动，国际金价和银价周一大幅上涨。其中，纽商所2月交割的黄金期货 价格报收于每盎司4451.50美元，较前一个交易日上涨2.82%。3月交割的白银期货价格报收于每盎司 76.657美元，较前一个交易日上涨7.94%。 受地缘政治动荡影响 5日国际油价上涨 原油市场方面，国际油价周一上涨，纽约商品交易所2月交货的轻质原油期货价格报收每桶58 ...

编者的话：2025年，欧洲陷入一场复合性危机：在内部，极右翼进一步崛起与政治碎片化加剧冲击着传 统治理，经济竞争力与科技投入持续下降；在外交上，欧洲一方面高呼实现战略自主，另一方面陷入对 美依赖加剧的困境。从法国的政治僵局到德国制造业优势的减弱，从一度被排除在俄乌和谈之外到被美 国公开批评"文明衰落"，欧洲在内外交困中忧心焦虑。然而，欧洲深厚的工业与创新底蕴犹存，其未来 走向并非注定黯淡，关键在于能否以断腕勇气推动内部改革，并超越意识形态偏见，在重塑的全球格局 中寻回理性与开放的合作之道。 极右翼崛起撼动旧秩序，政治碎片化加剧治理难题 回顾2025年，欧洲极右翼浪潮持续涌动，势力版图不断扩张。在德国2月举行的联邦议院（议会下院） 选举中，德国选择党以创纪录的得票率首次跃升为第二大党，紧追传统中右翼堡垒联盟党。一项11月公 布的民调则显示，德国选择党的支持率已反超联盟党，预示其在来年的德国地方选举中或将继续"开疆 拓土"。 今年5月，葡萄牙举行3年以来的第三次议会选举。尽管中右翼民主联盟赢得了最多席位，但极右翼 的"够了"党无疑成为本次选举中异军突起的最大赢家：它与中左翼社会党在议会中同获58席，并列第二 大党 ...

中美关税战刚刚进入"休战期"，特朗普又开始进行新的动作。最近，他批准了对台湾军售，金额高达110亿美元，计划为台湾提供包括海马斯多管火箭炮在 内的一系列先进武器装备。这一举动无疑是在中美关系中投下了一颗"重磅炸弹"。目前来看，这一决定可能导致中美关税战"休战期"提前结束，因为中国已 经表示了强烈反应。接下来，中美之间可能会展开一场更为激烈的对抗。 对。日本的经济在中日关系恶化的背景下已经承受了巨大压力，民众对于高市政府增税卖武器的做法感到非常不满，并且进行了示威抗议。民众认为，税金 应该用于民生而不是扩军，因此誓言要反对高市政府的这一决策。 自从中日关系恶化以来，日本社会各界就受到了影响，要求高市政府下台的声音越来越 大。而高市此时出台的增税政策，更是让民众的反感情绪达到了顶点。特朗普虽然希望通过对日本的支持来缓解其压力，但这一做法恐怕既无法拯救高市， 反而可能会引来中国方面的强烈反制。在这种背景下，特朗普的政治局势可能会面临新的挑战。 如果我们从特朗普批准对台军售的角度来看，这一决定无疑能让美国的军火商受益，股市指数有可能随之上涨。然而，美国国会批准对菲律宾的贷款援助， 却是一项"赔本买卖"。即使菲律宾获得 ...

一位官员表示："在白宫正式宣布之前，任何关于潜在行政命令的讨论都纯属猜测。" 一位消息人士透露，拟议的命令将要求国防公司把高管薪酬与交付特定武器系统的整体绩效水平更紧密 地挂钩。 智通财经APP获悉，据三位知情人士消息，白宫正计划出台一项行政命令，将限制那些项目延误且超预 算的国防承包商支付股息、进行股票回购以及发放高管薪酬。 消息人士补充称，该命令的具体措辞仍可能发生变化。目前尚不清楚该命令将如何强制国防公司实施任 何限制。 国防承包商股价周三盘前小幅走低：洛克希德·马丁(LMT.US)下跌1.5%，L3哈里斯技术(LHX.US)下跌 1.4%，Leidos(LDOS.US)下跌0.4%，诺斯罗普·格鲁曼(NOC.US)下跌1.2%，通用动力(GD.US)下跌0.%， 雷神技术(RTX.US)下跌0.8%。 特朗普政府长期以来一直抱怨国防工业成本高昂、进展缓慢，并承诺进行广泛改革以提高武器及相关技 术的生产速度。 上月，国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯公布了五角大楼采购武器的改革方案，旨在加快采购速度并消除官僚作 风。 ...

这篇国际评论，主要来分析全球军火市场火爆，中国军工却逆势减速，背后不是实力滑坡，而是多重现实因素交织的阶段性结果。 其中美国39家企业就拿走半壁江山，收入达3340亿美元，欧洲企业也借着俄乌冲突和扩军潮赚得盆满钵满。但诡异的是，作为全球最大武器进口地区的亚 太，却成了唯一收入下滑的区域，而中国军工企业的收入回落正是主要原因。 一边是九三阅兵上东风- 5C洲际导弹、歼- 35隐身舰载机等国之重器集体亮相，展现出世界一流的军工实力，一边是营收数据逆势下滑，这看似矛盾的现 象，绝非中国军工"实力滑坡"，而是多重现实因素交织的阶段性结果。 欧罗巴的"排他性俱乐部"：高门槛下无缘入局 全球军火市场的这波暴增，很大程度上是"战火"催生的。乌克兰危机持续多年，欧洲各国都在忙着"补课"和"升级"，国防开支水涨船高。 特别是北约成员国，他们的军事采购有条"金科玉律"：必须符合北约的作战标准和系统。这就好比，大家都在用iPhone生态，你拿着一部配置再高、价格再 实惠的安卓旗舰，也无法无缝融入。 这种"标准不兼容"的壁垒，直接将中国军工挡在了欧洲市场的大门之外。美国的企业凭借着北约体系内的天然优势，轻松拿走了欧洲高达1400亿美 ...

Core Viewpoint - Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić's statement highlights the precarious position of Serbia amid rising tensions between Europe and Russia, emphasizing the country's dual challenges of energy dependence on Russia and aspirations for EU membership [1][3][8] Group 1: Energy and EU Membership Dilemma - Serbia relies on Russia for over 50% of its natural gas, which is significantly cheaper than prices in other European countries, making it difficult for Serbia to sever ties without risking energy supply disruptions [3][5] - The EU has set two stringent conditions for Serbia's membership: sanctioning Russia and recognizing Kosovo's independence, both of which pose severe economic and political challenges for Serbia [3][5] - Recent EU actions, including freezing aid and reducing visa-free travel, indicate increasing pressure on Serbia to make a choice between its energy security and EU integration [3][5] Group 2: Arms Export Restrictions - Serbia's arms exports are a crucial economic pillar, supporting approximately 150,000 jobs, but recent accusations from Russia regarding arms shipments to Ukraine have jeopardized this industry [5][6] - The Serbian government has halted all arms exports and will now require strict approvals for any future transactions, risking significant economic losses and potential factory shutdowns [5][6] Group 3: Military Expansion in Europe - European nations are significantly increasing military spending, with Germany surpassing 3.5% of GDP and countries like Sweden and Finland joining NATO, indicating a growing military tension in Eastern Europe [6] - The ongoing supply of weapons to Ukraine by European countries is perceived as exacerbating the conflict, raising concerns for Serbia, which has maintained a neutral stance [6][8] Group 4: The Struggles of Small Nations - Serbia's neutral position is increasingly viewed as problematic by both Russia and the EU, leading to pressure from both sides to align with their respective agendas [6][8] - The situation illustrates the broader challenges faced by small nations caught in the geopolitical struggles of larger powers, where their core interests become bargaining chips in international relations [6][8]

Group 1: Export Controls and Supply Chain Impact - In July 2023, China implemented export controls on gallium and germanium, significantly disrupting the U.S. supply chain, as China accounts for 94% of global gallium production and 83% of germanium production [2] - The U.S. Geological Survey estimated that a complete ban on gallium and germanium from China could reduce the U.S. GDP by $3.4 billion, highlighting the interconnectedness of the supply chain [2] - Following the export controls, gallium exports from China nearly halted, leading to a sharp increase in prices and concerns over inventory shortages among U.S. semiconductor and military manufacturers [2] Group 2: Antimony Supply Concerns - Antimony, while less publicized than gallium, is critical for military applications, with China producing 56% to 63% of the global supply and accounting for 63% of U.S. imports [4] - The U.S. has no domestic antimony production, relying entirely on imports, which raises significant concerns for military readiness and production capabilities [4] - A report indicated that U.S. antimony reserves could last only a week, posing a severe risk to military production if tensions escalate [6] Group 3: Price Surge and Military Readiness - Following China's announcement of export controls on antimony, prices surged from $10,000 per ton at the beginning of the year to over $30,000 by the end of the year, with projections suggesting prices could reach $50,000 to $100,000 per ton [8] - The U.S. Department of Defense assessed that 78% of its weapon systems rely on materials like antimony, gallium, and germanium, indicating a significant impact on military capabilities [8] - The production of critical military ammunition is being hampered by material shortages, with the monthly production of 155mm shells struggling to meet targets due to supply constraints [10] Group 4: Global Military Spending and Material Demand - Global military spending reached $2.4 trillion in 2023, a 7% increase from the previous year, driving up demand for critical materials [10] - The U.S. is exploring domestic mining investments and international partnerships to diversify its supply chain and reduce reliance on Chinese materials [12] - The European Union and the UK are also recognizing the strategic importance of antimony and are working to diversify their supply sources [12] Group 5: Long-term Supply Chain Challenges - The environmental challenges associated with antimony mining complicate efforts to increase domestic production, with new mines taking at least a decade to develop [12] - The reliance on a few countries for critical materials exposes vulnerabilities in the supply chain, necessitating a balance between dependence and self-sufficiency [14] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with mineral resources becoming a focal point in the competition between major powers, emphasizing the need for strategic resource management [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the U.S. has paused military sales to European countries, including the "Patriot" air defense system, due to the need to prioritize replenishing its own military inventory [1][3] - The Pentagon reportedly lost interest in selling the "Patriot" system to Denmark, valued at several billion dollars, after confirming shortages in certain weaponry [3] - The suspension of military sales may lead to increased tensions between the U.S. and its European allies, potentially weakening U.S. military influence in Europe [3] Group 2 - The article mentions that the U.S. had previously suspended some military aid to Ukraine in July due to concerns over declining domestic ammunition stocks [3] - The Trump administration is seeking congressional approval for a $6.4 billion arms sale to Israel, which includes 30 AH-64 Apache helicopters and 3,250 infantry fighting vehicles [5] - The arms sale to Israel is contrasted with growing caution among Democratic lawmakers regarding military support, as evidenced by a recent resolution recognizing Palestine and opposition to continued arms sales to Israel [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the historical significance and contemporary relevance of the Jilin Machine Manufacturing Bureau, showcasing its transformation into a cultural and industrial heritage site that reflects the shared industrial history between China and Czech Republic [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Significance - The Jilin Machine Manufacturing Bureau, established in 1881, is recognized as the earliest modern industrial institution in Northeast China and played a crucial role during the Qing Dynasty in strengthening military capabilities against Russian invasions [2]. - The facility was the largest and most technologically advanced arms factory in the region during the Self-Strengthening Movement, indicating its historical importance in China's industrial development [2]. Group 2: Cultural Exchange and Industrial Development - The visit by representatives from overseas Chinese media, including Czech media, emphasizes the shared industrial heritage and development paths of Jilin City and Czech Republic, particularly in the context of revitalizing old industrial areas [2]. - The exhibition features artifacts such as the 1890 "Kali Gun," which reflects both European design influences and local adaptations, symbolizing the interconnectedness of industrial evolution between the two regions [2]. Group 3: Heritage Preservation and Future Plans - Jilin City is planning to transform industrial relics from the "First Five-Year Plan" era into a comprehensive project that combines industrial museums, cultural creativity, and leisure tourism, demonstrating a commitment to cultural empowerment through industrial heritage [4]. - The article underscores the importance of protecting industrial heritage as a shared human legacy, with the aim of preserving collective memory and fostering cultural tourism [4].

Core Viewpoint - Europe is investing heavily in military support for Ukraine and firmly opposes any ceasefire agreements that would favor Russia, driven by deep concerns for its own security and geopolitical stability [1][3][5] Group 1: Military Investment and Strategy - European leaders submitted a military procurement order worth €150 billion to the U.S., indicating a strategic partnership where Europe funds and the U.S. supplies weapons to Ukraine [1] - The ongoing conflict has prompted European nations to modernize their military capabilities, with Germany announcing a €100 billion investment in military reforms and France committing to significantly increase its defense budget [1][5] Group 2: Geopolitical Concerns - The historical context of Russian expansionism has instilled a sense of urgency in Europe, particularly among Eastern European countries that view support for Ukraine as essential for their own defense [1][3] - The potential for a peace agreement that compromises Ukrainian territory raises concerns about military morale and public support for defense spending in Europe [3][5] Group 3: Dual-Track Strategy - Europe is pursuing a dual-track strategy: investing in U.S. military supplies while simultaneously seeking to assert control over European security matters to avoid being manipulated in great power conflicts [5] - European leaders emphasize the importance of a peace that respects Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, rejecting superficial agreements that do not address these fundamental issues [5]