Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The rising spot premium restricts the decline of copper prices [1] - The trend strength of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,040 with a daily decline of 1.13%, and the night - session closing price was 78,010 with a decline of 0.04%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,607 with a decline of 1.26% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 109,011, an increase of 53,123 from the previous day, and the open interest was 176,193, an increase of 4,504. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 46,546, an increase of 30,514, and the open interest was 271,000, an increase of 221 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 19,622, a decrease of 351, and the LME Copper inventory was 138,200, an increase of 1,350. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 12.28%, a decrease of 1.87% [1] - **Spreads**: The LME Copper spread was - 50.76, a decrease of 3.96 from the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price was 73,600, an increase of 100. The spot - to - near - term futures spread was 165, an increase of 55 [1] Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The US core PCE price index in June was 2.8% year - on - year, reaching a 4 - month high. Trump said the US - Mexico tariff agreement would be extended by 90 days, and the US Commerce Secretary claimed to have reached trade agreements with Cambodia and Thailand [1] - **Micro News**: Chile expects to get Trump's tariff exemption, causing New York copper to fall more than 6% and copper mining stocks to decline generally. Peru is evaluating 134 mining exploration and development projects with an expected investment of $6 billion. Trump will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivatives starting from August 1 [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has announced a 50% tariff on various imported copper products, effective August 1, which has led to significant market reactions, particularly a sharp decline in COMEX copper prices [1][3]. Market Reaction - COMEX copper prices plummeted over 18% on July 30, with the decline continuing, while LME copper showed minimal reaction, resulting in a significant narrowing of the price spread between COMEX and LME copper [1][4]. - The collapse of the abnormal premium structure for U.S. copper means that traders will lack incentives to transport copper from other regions to the U.S., leading to concerns about limited copper inflow into the U.S. market [4]. Implications for Supply and Demand - The U.S. copper import volume has nearly reached last year's total, and without price incentives, the inflow of copper from other regions may be restricted, potentially leading to a re-export scenario [4]. - LME copper inventories have accumulated nearly 50,000 tons since early July, with expectations of further increases in inventory levels due to the reduced impact of tariffs on refined copper [4]. Future Considerations - President Trump has not ruled out the possibility of imposing tariffs on refined copper in the future, with potential phased tariffs starting in 2027 [5]. - The U.S. administration's directive includes measures to support the domestic copper industry, such as requiring that 25% of high-quality scrap copper produced domestically must be sold within the U.S. [5].

Group 1 - The U.S. government announced a 50% tariff on various imported copper products, effective from August 1 [1][2] - The tariff applies to semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, while certain copper input materials and scrap are exempt [1] - The announcement was made under the authority of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, citing national security concerns [1] Group 2 - Following the tariff announcement, copper prices in New York fell by over 18% [2] - The imposition of tariffs is expected to significantly increase costs for U.S. manufacturers, potentially impacting the manufacturing sector adversely [2]