成本抬升支撑镍价偏强 震荡 镍周报 2026/02/28 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 精炼镍 02 期现市场 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 资源端：本周菲律宾镍矿受春节假期与雨季双重影响，交易清淡、供应受限，叠加矿价偏高与冶炼厂节前备库充足，需求整体疲软。印尼镍矿 市场聚焦 RKAB 开采配额审批，配额大幅收紧致冶炼厂缺矿压力凸显，叠加雨季与斋月临近扰动生产，供应增量受限。尽管印尼内贸基准价格 小幅回落，但多重供应约束支撑国内升水趋强，整体价格偏强格局未改。 ◆ 镍铁：本周高镍生铁价格维持强势，周五SMM10-12%高镍生铁均价上涨至1085元/镍点（出厂含税），主要受上游挺价推动。供应端方面，上游 厂商报价依旧维持坚挺，价格支撑较强。需求端，下游刚需采购有所释放，高镍生铁成交量环比回升，带动市场价格重心上移。整体来看，上 下游博弈仍在延续，但在刚需成交的支撑下，高镍生铁价格继续走强。 ◆ 中 ...

宏观支撑减弱，现实压 力逐步体现 镍月报 2026/02/06 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 精炼镍 02 期现市场 05 硫酸镍 03 成本端 06 供需平衡 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 资源端：1月镍矿价格在菲律宾雨季扰动叠加LME镍价走强下明显上行。菲律宾方面，苏里高降雨致开采及驳船装运暂停，供应收紧支撑国内矿 价，中国港存进一步降至736万吨。印尼方面，湿法矿供需平稳、价格持稳；火法矿受强降雨叠加MOMS/RKAB核验与监管高压、矿方惜售，1.6% 品位镍矿到厂价涨至61.4美元/湿吨，后续基准价与升水预计仍偏强运行。 ◆ 镍铁：1月国内高镍生铁价格维持强势，月底SMM10-12%高镍生铁均价上涨至1054元/镍点（出厂含税），主要受期现价差拉大及上游挺价推动。 印尼部分铁厂转产高冰镍叠加贸易商套利锁货，导致市场流通货源偏紧。下游虽处淡季，但期货上涨改善不锈钢 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negative feedback in the real - end has limited impact, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly at high levels. In the short term, nickel prices are likely to follow market risk preferences, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: Nickel ore prices rose significantly this week due to the impact of the rainy season in the Philippines and the strengthening of LME nickel prices. In the Philippines, rainfall led to a near - halt in mining and barge shipping, tightening supply and supporting domestic ore prices. China's port inventory further decreased to 7.36 million tons. In Indonesia, the supply and demand of wet - process ore were stable with prices unchanged, while the price of 1.6% grade nickel ore at the factory increased to $54 - 56 per wet ton [11]. - **Nickel iron**: The price of high - nickel pig iron in China continued to rise sharply this week. The average price of SMM 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 25 yuan per nickel point to 1,042.5 yuan per nickel point (ex - factory tax - included). The price is expected to remain strong in the short term [11]. - **Intermediate products**: Nickel intermediate products maintained a pattern of "tight supply + high coefficient" this week. The high price suppressed downstream acceptance, and nickel salt/electrolytic nickel plants purchased on a need - basis and actively sought alternative raw materials. The supply of high - grade nickel matte was also tight with a firm coefficient, but transactions were restricted by high prices [11]. - **Refined nickel**: Nickel prices first weakened and then strengthened this week. The Shanghai Nickel main contract 2602 closed at 148,010 yuan per ton on Friday, up 2.52% for the week. The LME 3M contract was reported at $18,850 per ton, up 4.07% for the week. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price trends**: The report presents the price trends of nickel futures contracts, including the LME 3 - month nickel and the active nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [15]. - **Spot premium and discount**: It shows the average premium and discount of 1 Jinchuan nickel and 1 imported nickel to the Shanghai Nickel contract, as well as the LME nickel spot premium and discount [18][21]. - **Secondary nickel prices**: The report includes the price of nickel iron, the price of nickel sulfate, and the premium of nickel sulfate relative to nickel beans [23]. 3.3. Cost Side - **Nickel ore**: It shows data on Philippine nickel ore exports, domestic nickel ore imports, port inventories, and prices in Indonesia and the Philippines [28][30][32]. - **Nickel iron**: Data on the monthly production of nickel iron in Indonesia and China, as well as the production profit situation, are presented [34][36]. - **Intermediate products**: Information on the production of Indonesian MHP and high - grade nickel matte, domestic imports of MHP and nickel matte, and the price and coefficient of intermediate products is provided [38][40][42]. 3.4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In December 2025, the national refined nickel production was 29,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 666 tons compared to October. The report also shows the monthly production and enterprise operating rate of domestic refined nickel [46][48]. - **Demand**: It presents data on domestic stainless - steel production, social inventory, and the terminal demand of the manufacturing and real estate industries [49][51]. - **Import and export**: The report shows the domestic refined nickel import volume and import profit and loss [53]. - **Inventory**: It includes domestic refined nickel inventory and the LME's regional inventory [55]. - **Cost**: Data on the production cost and profit margin of domestic refined nickel by different raw materials and processes are provided [58]. 3.5. Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: The report shows the production and net import volume of nickel sulfate in China [62]. - **Demand**: It presents data on the installed capacity of ternary power batteries and the production of ternary precursors in China [65]. - **Cost and price**: Information on the production cost, price, and profit margin of battery - grade nickel sulfate from different raw materials is provided [67]. 3.6. Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides a detailed table of the global and Chinese nickel supply - demand balance from 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, including production, consumption, supply - demand gaps, and inventory changes [71].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The nickel market shows a high - level volatile pattern with the game between expectations and reality. Different nickel - related products have different market trends. In the short term, high - nickel pig iron prices are expected to remain strong, while refined nickel is likely to experience wide - range fluctuations. [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: The nickel ore market is generally strong this week. Supply - side price support and cost increases are the core drivers. Philippine mines have firm quotes, and the HPM benchmark price in Indonesia has been significantly raised, pushing up the arrival cost of pyrometallurgical ore [11]. - **Nickel iron**: The price of domestic high - nickel pig iron has continued to rise sharply. The average price of SMM 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron has increased by 70 yuan/nickel point to 1017.5 yuan/nickel point (ex - factory tax included). Market circulation of goods is tight, and the price is supported by the futures market and downstream stainless - steel enterprises' profit improvement [11]. - **Intermediate products**: The nickel intermediate products maintain a pattern of "tight supply + high coefficient". MHP and high - grade nickel matte are both in short supply, but high prices suppress transactions. The price of auxiliary material sulfur is prone to rise [11]. - **Refined nickel**: The refined nickel market shows a typical volatile pattern of "strong - expectation pull - up and weak - reality suppression". The futures market is mainly driven by the expectation of tightened RKAB quotas in Indonesia in 2026. High inventory and weak demand lead to large fluctuations. Spot market premiums have declined slightly, and global visible inventory has increased. In the future, refined nickel is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The short - term price range of SHFE nickel is 140,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME 3M contract is 17,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures price trend**: The report presents the price trends of nickel futures contracts, including LME 3 - month nickel and SHFE nickel [15]. - **Spot premium**: It shows the spot premiums of domestic and LME nickel, including premiums of RUSNICKEL and Jinchuan nickel [18]. - **Secondary nickel price**: The prices of nickel iron and sulfuric acid nickel and their premiums are presented [21]. 3. Cost Side - **Nickel ore**: Information on Philippine nickel ore exports, domestic imports, port inventories, and prices in Indonesia and the Philippines is provided [26][28][30]. - **Nickel iron**: The monthly production and production profits of nickel iron in Indonesia and China are shown [32][34]. - **Intermediate products**: The production, import volume, and prices of MHP and high - grade nickel matte in Indonesia and China are presented [36][38][40]. 4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In December 2025, the national refined nickel production was 29,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 666 tons. The report also shows the monthly production and enterprise operating rates [44][46]. - **Demand**: It presents the demand for refined nickel from the stainless - steel industry, manufacturing, and real - estate sectors, as well as related inventory data [47][49]. - **Import and export**: The import volume and import profit and loss of domestic refined nickel are shown [51]. - **Inventory**: This week, the global visible nickel inventory increased by 840 tons to 345,000 tons. The report also shows domestic and LME regional inventories [54][56]. - **Cost**: The production cost and profit rate of refined nickel by different raw materials and processes are presented [57]. 5. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - **Supply**: The production and net import volume of sulfuric acid nickel in China are shown [61]. - **Demand**: The demand for sulfuric acid nickel from ternary power batteries and ternary precursors is presented [64]. - **Cost and price**: The production cost, price, and profit rate of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel by different raw materials are shown [66]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance The report provides a detailed supply - demand balance table for nickel from 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, including production, consumption, supply - demand gaps, and visible inventories of different nickel products globally and in China [69][70].

Core Viewpoint - Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. has seen a stock price increase of 5.03%, reaching 61.13 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 3.746 billion CNY and a market capitalization of 115.908 billion CNY as of November 25 [1] Company Overview - Huayou Cobalt, established on May 22, 2002, and listed on January 29, 2015, is located in Tongxiang Economic Development Zone, Zhejiang Province. The company specializes in the research and manufacturing of new energy lithium battery materials and cobalt new materials [1] - The revenue composition of Huayou Cobalt includes: nickel products (34.54%), cathode materials (16.28%), trading and others (15.55%), nickel intermediates (14.91%), copper products (5.95%), ternary precursors (5.25%), lithium products (4.18%), and cobalt products (3.33%) [1] Fund Holdings - One fund under Dongzheng Asset Management holds a significant position in Huayou Cobalt. The Dongfanghong Industrial Upgrade Mixed Fund (000619) held 1.3773 million shares in the third quarter, accounting for 3.02% of the fund's net value, ranking as the tenth largest holding. The estimated floating profit from this position is approximately 4.0355 million CNY [2] - The Dongfanghong Industrial Upgrade Mixed Fund (000619) was established on June 6, 2014, with a current scale of 3.007 billion CNY. Year-to-date returns are 20.57%, ranking 3442 out of 8136 in its category; the one-year return is 23.14%, ranking 3190 out of 8058; and since inception, the return is 326.2% [2] Fund Manager Information - The fund managers of Dongfanghong Industrial Upgrade Mixed Fund (000619) are Miao Yu and Wang Zhuo. Miao Yu has a tenure of 10 years and 290 days, managing assets totaling 11.576 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 194.53% and the worst being -24.91% [3] - Wang Zhuo has a tenure of 2 years and 296 days, managing assets of 3.007 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 24.18% and the worst being -11.61% [3]

Core Insights - Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. experienced a 5.05% increase in stock price, reaching 65.97 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 4.603 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 3.76%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 125.295 billion CNY [1] Company Overview - Huayou Cobalt, established on May 22, 2002, and listed on January 29, 2015, is located in the Tongxiang Economic Development Zone, Zhejiang Province. The company specializes in the research and manufacturing of new energy lithium battery materials and cobalt new materials [1] - The revenue composition of Huayou Cobalt includes: nickel products (34.54%), cathode materials (16.28%), trading and others (15.55%), nickel intermediates (14.91%), copper products (5.95%), ternary precursors (5.25%), lithium products (4.18%), and cobalt products (3.33%) [1] Fund Holdings - According to data from the top ten holdings of funds, one fund under Chuangjin Hexin holds a significant position in Huayou Cobalt. The Chuangjin Hexin Resource Theme Selected Stock A (003624) held 638,400 shares in the third quarter, accounting for 5.14% of the fund's net value, making it the fourth-largest holding. The estimated floating profit for today is approximately 2.0237 million CNY [2] - The Chuangjin Hexin Resource Theme Selected Stock A (003624) was established on November 2, 2016, with a current scale of 372 million CNY. Year-to-date returns are 67.61%, ranking 280 out of 4,216 in its category; the one-year return is 51.99%, ranking 710 out of 3,885; and since inception, the return is 276.33% [2] Fund Manager Performance - The fund managers for Chuangjin Hexin Resource Theme Selected Stock A (003624) are Li You and Huang Chao. Li You has a cumulative tenure of 9 years, managing assets totaling 4.582 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 262.31% and the worst being -42.15% [3] - Huang Chao has a cumulative tenure of 2 years and 173 days, managing assets totaling 819 million CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 61.64% and the worst being 59.67% [3]

Core Viewpoint - Company Huayou Cobalt's revenue is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan in the coming years, driven by strong performance in nickel and lithium sectors, with significant growth in revenue and profit reported in the latest half-year results [1][9]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Huayou Cobalt achieved revenue of 37.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.78%, and a net profit of 2.7 billion yuan, up 62.26%, both setting historical records for the same period [1]. - Nickel product shipments reached 139,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 83.91%, significantly contributing to the company's revenue growth [3]. - Revenue from nickel products and intermediate products grew by 137.54% and 68.32% respectively, making them the primary sources of revenue and profit, accounting for 49.4% and 57.9% of total revenue and gross profit [3][4]. Group 2: Business Expansion and Projects - The company has several upcoming projects, including a 50,000-ton lithium sulfate project and wet processing projects in Indonesia, which are expected to contribute to future revenue growth [2][7]. - The Pomalaa and Sorowako wet processing projects are in collaboration with partners and are expected to be operational by the end of 2026 [6]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Price Trends - Nickel prices are at a five-year low, with limited downside potential, while cobalt and lithium prices have shown signs of recovery [2][8]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has risen over 41% from its low in late June, indicating a potential rebound in the market [8]. Group 4: Valuation and Market Sentiment - Analysts project Huayou Cobalt's revenue for 2025 to be between 68 billion and 74 billion yuan, with some estimates for 2026 exceeding 80 billion yuan [9]. - The company's market capitalization is expected to potentially return to the 100 billion yuan level, having previously exceeded 170 billion yuan during the peak of the lithium battery industry in 2021 [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see stable nickel profits in Q2, with cobalt performance showing elasticity. The forecast for H1 2025 indicates a net profit of 2.6-2.8 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 56%-68% [7] - Nickel wet-process projects are expected to continue overproducing, with a projected shipment of over 70,000 tons in Q2, maintaining stable profits. The company anticipates nickel intermediate shipments of over 280,000 tons for the year, a 25% increase year-on-year [7] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise, potentially leading to a second wave of price increases in the second half of the year, with the company’s cobalt projects contributing significantly to profits [7] - Copper is expected to contribute stable profits, while lithium is projected to break even. The company aims for a total copper shipment of 90,000 tons for the year, contributing 700-800 million in profits [7] - The sales of positive materials are expected to recover significantly, with a target of 130,000 tons for the year, a 30% increase year-on-year [7] - The profit forecast has been adjusted upwards for 2025-2027, with expected net profits of 6 billion, 6.75 billion, and 8.24 billion respectively, reflecting a growth of 44%, 12%, and 22% [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 66.304 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.19%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3.351 billion, down 14.25% year-on-year [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 3.53 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.58 [1] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 138.963 billion by 2025, with total liabilities of 84.779 billion [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Nickel and stainless steel may continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. The audit event of Indonesia's Tsingshan Industrial Park may affect the production of nickel intermediates and stainless steel. The support of ore prices still exists, but there is a certain deviation between the short - term nickel ore and the market trend. The nickel - iron price is still falling, and the demand in the stainless steel market is weak during the off - season. The demand for nickel salts in the new energy chain recovers slowly. Attention should be paid to spot transactions and macro news [1][4][5] Summary by Relevant Contents 1. Price and Management Strategy - **Price Forecast**: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 115,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3] - **Inventory Management Strategy**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has depreciation risks, short Shanghai nickel futures (60% ratio) and sell call options (50% ratio) to lock in profits and hedge against spot price drops [3] - **Procurement Management Strategy**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy long - term Shanghai nickel contracts and sell put options according to the production plan, and also buy out - of - the - money call options [3] 2. Market Situation - **Nickel Market**: Intraday, Shanghai nickel continued to fluctuate. The follow - up of the Indonesia audit event may affect production. The support of ore prices still exists, but there is a deviation between short - term nickel ore and the market trend. Nickel - iron prices are falling, with large profit pressure and weak procurement [4] - **Stainless Steel Market**: In the off - season, demand is weak. Spot sales are mainly through price concessions, and overall transactions are average [4] - **New Energy Chain**: The demand for nickel salts recovers slowly, maintaining a production - to - order situation [4] 3. Market Data - **Nickel Disk Data**: The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 118,890 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The LME nickel 3M price is 15,095 US dollars/ton, up 0.39%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.69% [6] - **Stainless Steel Disk Data**: The latest price of the stainless steel main contract is 12,575 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.80% [7] - **Inventory Data**: Domestic social nickel inventory is 39,383 tons (up 8 tons), LME nickel inventory is 203,598 tons (down 522 tons), stainless steel social inventory is 1,000.6 tons (up 1.8 tons), and nickel pig iron inventory is 34,610 tons (up 3,148 tons) [8] 4. Market Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Some stainless steel mills announced production cuts, the cost of nickel ore prices is supported, and the government's review of some enterprises in Indonesia's Morowali Park may affect production [5] - **Negative Factors**: Stainless steel enters the traditional off - season, inventory clearance is slow, the contradiction in the nickel - iron industry chain deepens, and the demand for precursors in the new energy chain is weak [5]