未来几年，华友钴业（603799）的营收很可能会突破1000亿元。 8月17日晚间，该公司发布半年报，当期公司实现营收372亿元，同比增长23.78%，净利润达到27亿 元，较上年同期增长62.26%，均创历史同期新高。 与其他同业公司不同，华友钴业的业务较为庞杂，横跨镍、钴、锂等多个能源品种，并涉足三元前驱 体、正极材料，甚至是贸易等领域。 而就上半年来看，业绩增长主要源于其镍矿产能的全面释放，这帮助公司镍矿产品、镍中间品营收与利 润快速增长的同时，亦对公司整体经营业绩带来明显拉动。 值得注意的是，卖方对华友钴业2025年营收预期值普遍保持在700亿元左右，近期公司市值也已经站稳 700亿元。 以上产品，也构成了华友钴业上半年最主要的营收与盈利来源，当期两项产品的营收、毛利润占比分别 达到49.4%和57.9%。 相比之下，公司钴产品的体量虽然明显小于镍产品，但是受到上半年刚果（金）禁运引发的钴价上涨影 响，当期其利润率也出现一定上行。 今年2月24日，刚果（金）有关部门宣布，决定暂停钴出口四个月，以应对全球钴市场供应过剩的局 面。 这一出口限制，直接帮助钴价触底反弹。以英国MB钴（标准级）平均价为例，便由 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see stable nickel profits in Q2, with cobalt performance showing elasticity. The forecast for H1 2025 indicates a net profit of 2.6-2.8 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 56%-68% [7] - Nickel wet-process projects are expected to continue overproducing, with a projected shipment of over 70,000 tons in Q2, maintaining stable profits. The company anticipates nickel intermediate shipments of over 280,000 tons for the year, a 25% increase year-on-year [7] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise, potentially leading to a second wave of price increases in the second half of the year, with the company’s cobalt projects contributing significantly to profits [7] - Copper is expected to contribute stable profits, while lithium is projected to break even. The company aims for a total copper shipment of 90,000 tons for the year, contributing 700-800 million in profits [7] - The sales of positive materials are expected to recover significantly, with a target of 130,000 tons for the year, a 30% increase year-on-year [7] - The profit forecast has been adjusted upwards for 2025-2027, with expected net profits of 6 billion, 6.75 billion, and 8.24 billion respectively, reflecting a growth of 44%, 12%, and 22% [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 66.304 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.19%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3.351 billion, down 14.25% year-on-year [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 3.53 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.58 [1] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 138.963 billion by 2025, with total liabilities of 84.779 billion [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Nickel and stainless steel may continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. The audit event of Indonesia's Tsingshan Industrial Park may affect the production of nickel intermediates and stainless steel. The support of ore prices still exists, but there is a certain deviation between the short - term nickel ore and the market trend. The nickel - iron price is still falling, and the demand in the stainless steel market is weak during the off - season. The demand for nickel salts in the new energy chain recovers slowly. Attention should be paid to spot transactions and macro news [1][4][5] Summary by Relevant Contents 1. Price and Management Strategy - **Price Forecast**: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 115,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3] - **Inventory Management Strategy**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has depreciation risks, short Shanghai nickel futures (60% ratio) and sell call options (50% ratio) to lock in profits and hedge against spot price drops [3] - **Procurement Management Strategy**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy long - term Shanghai nickel contracts and sell put options according to the production plan, and also buy out - of - the - money call options [3] 2. Market Situation - **Nickel Market**: Intraday, Shanghai nickel continued to fluctuate. The follow - up of the Indonesia audit event may affect production. The support of ore prices still exists, but there is a deviation between short - term nickel ore and the market trend. Nickel - iron prices are falling, with large profit pressure and weak procurement [4] - **Stainless Steel Market**: In the off - season, demand is weak. Spot sales are mainly through price concessions, and overall transactions are average [4] - **New Energy Chain**: The demand for nickel salts recovers slowly, maintaining a production - to - order situation [4] 3. Market Data - **Nickel Disk Data**: The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 118,890 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The LME nickel 3M price is 15,095 US dollars/ton, up 0.39%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.69% [6] - **Stainless Steel Disk Data**: The latest price of the stainless steel main contract is 12,575 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.80% [7] - **Inventory Data**: Domestic social nickel inventory is 39,383 tons (up 8 tons), LME nickel inventory is 203,598 tons (down 522 tons), stainless steel social inventory is 1,000.6 tons (up 1.8 tons), and nickel pig iron inventory is 34,610 tons (up 3,148 tons) [8] 4. Market Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Some stainless steel mills announced production cuts, the cost of nickel ore prices is supported, and the government's review of some enterprises in Indonesia's Morowali Park may affect production [5] - **Negative Factors**: Stainless steel enters the traditional off - season, inventory clearance is slow, the contradiction in the nickel - iron industry chain deepens, and the demand for precursors in the new energy chain is weak [5]