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镍、不锈钢:日内延续震荡走势
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 02:34
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel continued to fluctuate. The nickel ore support weakened due to the increase in the inventory of nickel ore arriving from the Philippines, and the second - stage nickel ore benchmark price in Indonesia in July also decreased, mainly affected by weak downstream demand. The transaction price of ferronickel continued to decline, affected by the negative feedback from the stainless - steel industry, and iron plants suffered serious losses. Stainless steel also continued to fluctuate, with cost support weakening, and some large manufacturers entered the production - cut cycle again. The new - energy link still maintained a production - based - on - sales situation. Attention should be paid to the subsequent cooperation between Indonesia and the United States after they reached a tariff agreement [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the continued cobalt - mine ban in Congo, Jinhai's entry into the production - cut cycle, Indonesia's shortening of the nickel - ore quota license period from three years to one year, and potential impacts on the nickel industry chain from the Indonesia - US tariff negotiation. Negative factors include high pure - nickel inventory, stainless steel entering the traditional off - season with slow de - stocking, and deepening contradictions in the ferronickel industry chain with an unchanged oversupply situation [5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Shanghai Nickel Price Forecast and Management Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3]. - **Inventory Management Strategy**: When the product sales price falls and there is a risk of inventory depreciation, sell Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline (60% hedging ratio, strategy level 2); sell call options (50% hedging ratio, strategy level 2) [3]. - **Procurement Management Strategy**: When the company has future production and procurement needs and is worried about rising raw - material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs in advance on the disk (strategy level 3); sell put options (strategy level 1); buy out - of - the - money call options (strategy level 3) [3]. 3.2. Nickel and Stainless - Steel Market Data - **Nickel Disk Daily Data**: The latest value of the Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 120,550 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The Shanghai nickel continuous - one contract is 120,710 yuan/ton, up 1.11%; the continuous - two contract is 120,820 yuan/ton, up 1.09%; the continuous - three contract is 120,970 yuan/ton, up 1.09%. The LME nickel 3M is 15,215 US dollars/ton, up 1.02%. The trading volume is 131,554 lots, and the open interest is 54,128 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 21,555 tons, up 1.22%. The basis of the main contract is - 180 yuan/ton, down 77.8% [8]. - **Stainless - Steel Disk Daily Data**: The latest value of the stainless - steel main - continuous contract is 12,670 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The stainless - steel continuous - one contract is 12,670 yuan/ton, down 0.20%; the continuous - two contract is 12,740 yuan/ton, up 0.51%; the continuous - three contract is 12,735 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. The trading volume is 151,703 lots, and the open interest is 100,817 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 110,991 tons, down 0.05%. The basis of the main contract is 375 yuan/ton, up 5.63% [9]. - **Nickel Industry Inventory Data**: The domestic social inventory of nickel is 39,173 tons, an increase of 1,144 tons; the LME nickel inventory is 207,288 tons, an increase of 708 tons; the stainless - steel social inventory is 990.8 tons, an increase of 12.8 tons; the nickel - pig - iron inventory is 33,233 tons, a decrease of 4,301 tons [10].
镍、不锈钢:底部支撑有所松动
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 01:31
Group 1: Report Title and Team - Report title: Nickel & Stainless Steel: The Bottom Support is Loosening [1] - Research team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Management Strategy - Shanghai Nickel price range forecast: 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, current volatility 15.17%, historical percentile 3.2% [2] - Inventory management strategy: When product sales price drops, short Shanghai Nickel futures (60% ratio, strategy level 2) and sell call options (50% ratio, strategy level 2) [2] - Procurement management strategy: When worried about raw material price rise, buy Shanghai Nickel forward contracts and sell put options according to production plan, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2] Group 3: Core Contradiction - Shanghai Nickel shows weak and volatile intraday trend, affected by the non - ferrous market. Nickel ore price may decline due to increased Philippine shipments, but the decline space is limited. Nickel iron price stabilizes, close to the conversion spread of high - ice nickel. Pay attention to anti - dumping tax and major factory production cuts for stainless steel, and macro - tariff and non - ferrous market trends [3] Group 4:利多/利空解读 - Bullish factors: Congo cobalt mine ban continues, Tsingshan plans to cut stainless steel production by 250,000 tons, Indonesia shortens nickel ore quota license period from three to one year [4] - Bearish factors: Stainless steel enters traditional off - season with slow inventory reduction, nickel - iron industry chain contradiction deepens with surplus situation unchanged, and pure nickel inventory is high [4] Group 5: Daily Market Data Nickel - Latest price of Shanghai Nickel main contract: 119,140 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shanghai Nickel continuous contracts show declines. LME Nickel 3M at 15,015 dollars/ton, down 0.98%. Volume 111,063 lots, open interest 72,919 lots, warehouse receipts down 0.75% [6] Stainless steel - Latest price of stainless steel main contract: 12,770 yuan/ton, unchanged; continuous contracts show increases. Volume 98,636 lots, open interest 87,766 lots, warehouse receipts down 0.11% [7] Group 6: Industry Inventory - Domestic social nickel inventory: 38,029 tons, up 186 tons; LME nickel inventory: 203,562 tons, up 942 tons; stainless steel social inventory: 978 tons, down 14.1 tons; nickel pig iron inventory: 37,534 tons, up 2,924 tons [8]
镍、不锈钢:短期或延续宽幅震荡
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 01:45
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Nickel and stainless steel may continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. The audit event of Indonesia's Tsingshan Industrial Park may affect the production of nickel intermediates and stainless steel. The support of ore prices still exists, but there is a certain deviation between the short - term nickel ore and the market trend. The nickel - iron price is still falling, and the demand in the stainless steel market is weak during the off - season. The demand for nickel salts in the new energy chain recovers slowly. Attention should be paid to spot transactions and macro news [1][4][5] Summary by Relevant Contents 1. Price and Management Strategy - **Price Forecast**: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 115,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3] - **Inventory Management Strategy**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has depreciation risks, short Shanghai nickel futures (60% ratio) and sell call options (50% ratio) to lock in profits and hedge against spot price drops [3] - **Procurement Management Strategy**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy long - term Shanghai nickel contracts and sell put options according to the production plan, and also buy out - of - the - money call options [3] 2. Market Situation - **Nickel Market**: Intraday, Shanghai nickel continued to fluctuate. The follow - up of the Indonesia audit event may affect production. The support of ore prices still exists, but there is a deviation between short - term nickel ore and the market trend. Nickel - iron prices are falling, with large profit pressure and weak procurement [4] - **Stainless Steel Market**: In the off - season, demand is weak. Spot sales are mainly through price concessions, and overall transactions are average [4] - **New Energy Chain**: The demand for nickel salts recovers slowly, maintaining a production - to - order situation [4] 3. Market Data - **Nickel Disk Data**: The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 118,890 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The LME nickel 3M price is 15,095 US dollars/ton, up 0.39%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.69% [6] - **Stainless Steel Disk Data**: The latest price of the stainless steel main contract is 12,575 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.80% [7] - **Inventory Data**: Domestic social nickel inventory is 39,383 tons (up 8 tons), LME nickel inventory is 203,598 tons (down 522 tons), stainless steel social inventory is 1,000.6 tons (up 1.8 tons), and nickel pig iron inventory is 34,610 tons (up 3,148 tons) [8] 4. Market Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Some stainless steel mills announced production cuts, the cost of nickel ore prices is supported, and the government's review of some enterprises in Indonesia's Morowali Park may affect production [5] - **Negative Factors**: Stainless steel enters the traditional off - season, inventory clearance is slow, the contradiction in the nickel - iron industry chain deepens, and the demand for precursors in the new energy chain is weak [5]
镍、不锈钢日报:短期多空交织,关注宏观情绪带动-20250515
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 12:52
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market trend of nickel and stainless steel is mixed. There is still negative feedback in the ferronickel link on the fundamental side, and the support from the new - energy link has loosened. Although the Sino - US trade tariff agreement has eased concerns about the demand digestion of terminal products, its impact on nickel and stainless - steel varieties is limited, and attention should be paid to the subsequent reaction of the varieties to market sentiment [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the Sino - US trade tariff agreement, the Philippine government's plan to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025, the implementation of the new Indonesian resource tax on April 26th leading to an overall increase in cost, and the lower - than - expected US CPI data increasing the expectation of interest rate cuts. Negative factors include the gradual increase in ore supply at the end of the Philippine rainy season, the weakening support of the MHP nickel sulfate link, the continuous negative feedback in the stainless - steel industry with the cost support at the ferronickel end moving down, and the high inventory of stainless steel with no obvious improvement in demand [4]. 3. Key Points by Category 3.1. Price Forecast and Management Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 119,000 - 129,000 yuan/ton, with the current 20 - day rolling volatility at 32.75% and the historical percentile of the current volatility at 66.9% [2]. - **Inventory Management Strategy**: When the product sales price drops and there is a risk of inventory impairment, it is recommended to short Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline. The recommended hedging tool is the Shanghai nickel main contract with a selling hedging ratio of 60% and a strategy level of 2. Another option is to sell call options with a hedging ratio of 50% and a strategy level of 2 [2]. - **Procurement Management Strategy**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, it is recommended to buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs in advance. The recommended hedging tools include buying far - month Shanghai nickel contracts, selling put options, and buying out - of - the - money call options. The hedging ratio is based on the procurement plan, and the strategy level is 3 [2]. 3.2. Market Data - **Nickel Market Data**: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 123,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,630 yuan (- 1%); the trading volume is 137,729 lots, an increase of 1,166 lots (0.85%); the open interest is 63,702 lots, an increase of 625 lots (0.99%); the warehouse receipt quantity is 23,344 tons, a decrease of 205 tons (- 0.87%); the basis of the main contract is - 1,915 yuan/ton, a decrease of 145 yuan (- 7.0%) [6]. - **Stainless - Steel Market Data**: The latest price of the stainless - steel main - continuous contract is 12,995 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan (- 1%); the trading volume is 128,580 lots, a decrease of 14,329 lots (- 10.03%); the open interest is 127,690 lots, a decrease of 4,068 lots (- 3.09%); the warehouse receipt quantity is 158,715 tons, a decrease of 94 tons (- 0.06%); the basis of the main contract is 590 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan (20.41%) [7]. 3.3. Inventory Data - **Nickel Industry Inventory**: The domestic social inventory of nickel is 44,088 tons, a decrease of 13 tons; the LME nickel inventory is 199,146 tons, an increase of 714 tons; the stainless - steel social inventory is 989.1 tons, an increase of 13.7 tons; the nickel pig iron inventory is 28,396.5 tons, an increase of 4,223 tons [8].
镍、不锈钢日报:回调接近尾声,或恢复震荡局势-20250423
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-04-23 01:45
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The intraday nickel and stainless - steel market shows a volatile and slightly stronger trend, but there is no significant improvement in the fundamentals. The market is currently speculating on the new tax rate implementation and tariff adjustments, with limited upside potential, and may return to a volatile situation [3]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Nickel Price Forecast and Management Strategies - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted price range for Shanghai nickel is 11,800 - 12,800 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.75% and a historical percentile of 66.9% [2]. - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risks, it is recommended to short Shanghai nickel futures (60% hedging ratio) and sell call options (50% hedging ratio) to lock in profits and hedge against spot price declines [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When there are production and procurement needs and concerns about rising raw material prices, it is recommended to buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [2]. 2. Market Factors Analysis - **Positive Factors**: The MHP production of IMIP was damaged due to a landslide, leading to a short - term supply shortage in the nickel salt industry chain; the new Indonesian resource tax came into effect on April 26, raising the overall cost; the US dollar index shows a continuous weakening trend [4]. - **Negative Factors**: As the Philippine rainy season ends, the supply of nickel ore is gradually increasing; LME nickel inventory is difficult to digest and remains at a historical high; after the tariff policy buffer period, there is a negative feedback in the industrial chain, and the cost support for ferronickel has declined overall; the demand for refined nickel remains weak, and the oversupply situation continues, with no obvious driving force for the overall terminal demand; stainless - steel inventory remains high, and export difficulties increase the difficulty of terminal digestion [4]. 3. Market Data - **Nickel Futures**: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 125,570 yuan/ton, with a 0% change; the LME nickel 3M price is 15,745 US dollars/ton, with a - 0.32% change. The trading volume is 95,837 lots, and the open interest is 37,304 lots. The warehouse receipt volume is 25,384 tons, with a 0.25% increase [2][6]. - **Stainless - Steel Futures**: The latest price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,690 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The trading volume is 134,890 lots, and the open interest is 143,261 lots. The warehouse receipt volume is 175,567 tons, with a - 0.52% decrease [7]. - **Inventory Data**: The domestic social nickel inventory is 43,960 tons, an increase of 652 tons; LME nickel inventory is 204,528 tons, an increase of 1,938 tons; stainless - steel social inventory is 999.4 tons, a decrease of 2.8 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 24,173.5 tons, an increase of 3,690.5 tons [8].