据中国海关数据统计，2025年8月中国镍锍进口量1.69万吨，环比减少1.92万吨，降幅53.18%；同比减 少5.14万吨，降幅75.27%，降至2023年12月以来新低。 数据来源：海关总署 ...

Group 1 - In July 2025, China's nickel matte imports reached 36,000 tons, an increase of 13,500 tons month-on-month, representing a growth rate of 60.09% [1] - Year-on-year, the imports decreased by 18,700 tons, showing a decline of 34.15% [1] - The import volume from Indonesia was 35,700 tons, which accounted for 99.21% of the total imports for the month, with a month-on-month increase of 59.56% [1] Group 2 - From January to July 2025, the total nickel matte imports amounted to 253,200 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.40% [1] - The decline in imports earlier was attributed to profit issues, leading some Indonesian nickel matte producers to shift production to nickel iron [1] - The significant recovery in July indicates a potential rebound in China's nickel matte import scale [1]

Core Insights - Indonesia's nickel sulfate exports reached 16,320 tons in June 2025, with 100% of the exports going to China [1] - Nickel pig iron exports from Indonesia totaled 951,558 tons, with 94.14% (895,837 tons) exported to China [1] - Indonesia exported 15,251 tons of nickel matte, with only 29.87% (4,555 tons) going to China [1] - The export volume of Indonesia's nickel wet processing intermediate products was 160,054 tons, with 100% (160,052 tons) exported to China [1] - Non-alloyed nickel exports from Indonesia amounted to 7,340 tons, with 73.47% (5,393 tons) exported to China [1]

Core Insights - Gansu's foreign trade showed significant growth in the first half of the year, with a total import and export value of 35.21 billion yuan, an increase of 33.8% year-on-year, ranking second in the country [1][3] - The export of "new three samples" products, including electric vehicles, photovoltaic products, and lithium-ion batteries, reached 200 million yuan, a staggering increase of 1,790% [1] - The province's renewable energy resources are abundant, with a potential wind energy capacity of 560 million kilowatts and solar energy capacity of 9.5 billion kilowatts, ranking fourth and fifth in China respectively [1] Trade Partners and Structure - Gansu's top three trading partners in the first half of the year were Kazakhstan, Indonesia, and Australia, with import and export values of 7.35 billion yuan, 3.89 billion yuan, and 3.17 billion yuan respectively [2] - Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative reached 26.53 billion yuan, growing by 33.1% and accounting for 75.3% of the province's total foreign trade [2] - The structure of trade improved, with general trade reaching 25.92 billion yuan, an increase of 41.7%, making up 73.6% of the total foreign trade [2] Business Dynamics - A total of 779 enterprises engaged in import and export activities in Gansu, with a net increase of 122 companies year-on-year [2] - State-owned enterprises accounted for 24.3 billion yuan in imports and exports, growing by 45.6% and representing 69% of the province's total foreign trade [2] - Private enterprises contributed 10.68 billion yuan, an increase of 13.7%, making up 30.3% of the total [2] Import Highlights - Significant imports of resource-based products were noted, with metal ore imports reaching 19.77 billion yuan, a growth of 44.0%, accounting for 74.2% of total imports [2] - Nickel ore imports surged to 3.2 billion yuan, increasing by 104.8%, while nickel-cobalt materials imports reached 1.24 billion yuan, up by 65.6% [2]

Core Insights - The construction of a smart customs system has significantly improved operational efficiency for companies, reducing copper concentrate processing time from 18 days to approximately 8 days and customs clearance time from 5-10 days to an average of 30 hours, resulting in cost savings exceeding 100 million yuan [1][2] - Gansu's import of metal ores reached 19.77 billion yuan in the first half of the year, marking a 44% increase and accounting for 74.2% of the province's total imports, with notable increases in nickel and cobalt materials [1][2] - The "Gansu Agricultural Foreign Trade Pass" program has been instrumental in promoting Gansu's agricultural products abroad, with over 160 agricultural enterprises trained to utilize the program, enhancing the quality and efficiency of exports [3] Group 1: Smart Customs Development - The smart customs initiative has led to a reduction in logistics costs and manpower, with frontline staff reduced from 4-5 to 2 [1] - The implementation of a "joint supervision" customs model for imported copper concentrate has been a key innovation, combining technology and risk assessment to enhance regulatory efficiency [2] Group 2: Agricultural Export Support - The "Gansu Agricultural Foreign Trade Pass" app has been launched to support agricultural exports, with continuous improvements based on enterprise feedback [3] - Gansu's foreign trade totalled 35.21 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 33.8%, ranking second nationally [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the second half of the year, nickel and stainless steel prices may face pressure and fluctuate at low levels, with the center of the fluctuation likely to move down compared to the first half. The reference range for Shanghai nickel is 110,000 - 127,000 yuan/ton, and for stainless steel, it is 12,000 - 13,100 yuan/ton [2]. - The core logic for the nickel market in the first half of the year was the tight supply of nickel ore, but market concerns may become dull in the second half. The supply elasticity of refined nickel may limit the upside space, and the downstream demand for nickel is mediocre, so the center of the nickel price fluctuation may move down [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 H1 Review of Nickel and Stainless Steel Trends 1.1 Shanghai Nickel Market Review - From January to February 2025, nickel prices fluctuated in the range of 120,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton. Despite a slight increase in inventory at the smelting end, it was lower than expected. High ore prices provided cost support for pyrometallurgy, and nickel prices oscillated in a multi - empty game [5]. - From March to April 2025, price volatility increased significantly. Nickel prices first rose and then fell, fluctuating in the range of 115,000 - 136,000 yuan/ton. Intensified ore - end contradictions led to a significant increase in nickel ore premiums, pushing up pyrometallurgical smelting costs. However, concerns about Trump's tariff policies and the release of supply elasticity in Indonesia limited the upside of refined nickel prices [6]. - From May to June 2025, nickel prices returned to range - bound fluctuations, but the center of the fluctuation gradually moved down, in the range of about 118,000 - 127,000 yuan/ton. The tight supply of Indonesian nickel ore continued, but market concerns about the ore end eased. Negative feedback from stainless steel production cuts also limited the upside of nickel prices [7]. 1.2 Stainless Steel Market Review - From January to March 2025, steel prices oscillated upward due to the combined effect of rising costs and peak - season expectations. The cost of stainless steel increased, and the price reached 13,800 yuan/ton, with a maximum cumulative increase of 8% [14]. - From April to May 2025, steel prices mainly followed overseas tariff policies. Trump's tariff policies led to a sharp decline in market risk appetite, and steel prices dropped. After the relaxation of tariffs, steel prices rose to 13,100 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of about 3% [14]. - In early June 2025, the center of steel price fluctuations moved down. The supply elasticity of ferronickel was released, and stainless steel entered a negative - feedback logic, with costs decreasing and inventory digestion slow [15]. 2. Supply 2.1 Front - end Smelting - **Short - term Supply**: As of May 2025, the cumulative output of Indonesian hydrometallurgical intermediate products was 184,000 tons (year - on - year increase of 73,000 tons), and the single - month output in May was 39,000 tons. The cumulative output of pyrometallurgical intermediate products was 114,000 tons (year - on - year decrease of 14,000 tons), and the single - month output in May was 16,000 tons. It is expected that the actual supply of Indonesian MHP in 2025 may increase by 44% (150,000 tons) year - on - year to 480,000 tons, while the actual supply of nickel matte may maintain a negative growth rate [20][21][25]. - **Long - term Consideration**: Hydrometallurgy has cost advantages, but it is difficult for it to make deep concessions. Although the profits of hydrometallurgical projects are considerable, the initial investment is high, and the pay - back period is long. A sharp decline in nickel prices may impact future hydrometallurgical supply expectations [32][36]. 2.2 Back - end Smelting - The supply of back - end smelting, including refined nickel and nickel sulfate, is in an over - supply situation. The supply increment of refined nickel is mainly in China. It is expected that the global refined nickel supply will increase by 9% (90,000 tons) year - on - year to 1.11 million tons in 2025. The global supply of nickel sulfate raw materials is expected to slightly decrease year - on - year to 420,000 tons [40][41][55]. 2.3 Ferronickel and Stainless Steel - **Ferronickel**: As of May 2025, the cumulative output of Indonesian ferronickel was 704,000 tons (year - on - year increase of 104,000 tons), and that of Chinese ferronickel was 131,000 tons (year - on - year decrease of 5,000 tons). It is expected that the global ferronickel supply will increase by 4.8% (100,000 tons) year - on - year to 2.17 million tons in 2025 [62][65]. - **Stainless Steel**: As of May 2025, the cumulative output of Chinese stainless steel was 16.1 million tons (year - on - year increase of 780,000 tons), and that of Indonesian stainless steel was 2.12 million tons (year - on - year decrease of 9,000 tons). Supply elasticity limits the profit range, and stainless steel valuation may be anchored to costs. It is expected that in 2025, stainless steel production and imports will change by +4% and - 23% year - on - year to 39.85 million tons and 1.45 million tons respectively, with a total supply growth rate of about 2.9% [75][78][80]. 2.4 Nickel Ore - In the short term, the tight supply of nickel ore is still a reality, but this supporting logic may become dull in the second half of the year. Concerns about Philippine policies have eased, and rainfall disturbances are expected to subside. Market concerns about Indonesian nickel ore may also ease in the second half of the year [87][88][91].