Summary of Conference Call on Long March 12A Rocket and Commercial Space Industry Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **commercial space industry** in China, focusing on the **Long March 12A rocket**, which utilizes liquid oxygen and methane fuel and has vertical recovery capabilities. This rocket is designed for large-scale networking tasks, differentiating itself from the Long March 12, which uses kerosene and lacks recovery capabilities [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Launch Details**: The Long March 12A rocket was launched on **December 23, 2025**, achieving successful second-stage orbit insertion despite the first-stage recovery failure. The rocket measures **70.4 meters** in length and weighs approximately **437 tons** [3][4]. - **Technological Comparison**: China has reached a stage in reusable launch technology comparable to SpaceX's Falcon 9's initial success, with advancements in using liquid oxygen and methane as propellants [5]. - **Investment Opportunity**: The period from late **2025 to 2026** is identified as a prime investment opportunity in the commercial space sector due to the convergence of policy support, international law deadlines for satellite constellations, and competitive pressures from SpaceX [6][7]. - **Upcoming Launches**: Multiple significant launches are anticipated in the first half of **2026**, including Long March 12B and other key missions, which are expected to catalyze the commercial space sector and drive innovation in manufacturing processes [8][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Focus Areas**: Recommended areas for investment include satellite communication payloads (e.g., Shanghai Hanyun, Chengchang Technology) and core rocket components (e.g., China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation) [3][11]. - **National Strategy**: The commercial space sector is not only a business opportunity but also a matter of national strategic security, with significant investments and policies being directed towards enhancing China's capabilities in this field [19]. - **Market Trends**: The commercial rocket market is expected to see a surge in orders, with the potential for significant growth in the number of launches and the development of reusable rocket technologies [21][23]. - **Technological Advancements**: The development of reusable rockets is crucial for reducing launch costs and increasing launch frequency, which is essential for the growth of the commercial space industry [20][24]. Conclusion The Long March 12A rocket's development and the broader commercial space industry in China present significant investment opportunities, driven by technological advancements, supportive policies, and competitive dynamics. The upcoming years are critical for establishing a robust commercial space infrastructure and enhancing China's position in the global space market.

Event Overview - The 2026 Beijing International Commercial Aerospace Exhibition will be held from January 23 to 25, 2026, at the Yichuang International Convention Center in Beijing, co-hosted by the Zhongguancun Yichuang Commercial Aerospace Alliance and Beijing Yichuang Star Arrow Technology Development Co., Ltd. [1] - This exhibition marks the first international commercial aerospace event in the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, aiming to create a platform for the entire industry chain and is expected to gather over 75% of leading domestic rocket manufacturing companies, with more than 300 exhibitors and over 20,000 professional visitors [1][2] Exhibition Highlights - The exhibition will feature four core areas: satellite manufacturing, rocket and launch systems, aerospace applications, and aviation services and support [2] - The third Beijing Commercial Aerospace Industry High-Quality Development Conference will take place concurrently, showcasing the latest innovations in the industry through reports, roundtable discussions, and project signings [2] Global Competition Acceleration - In December 2025, the Zhuque-3 rocket successfully completed its maiden flight, and China has launched several satellites, including the Resource-3 04 satellite and a constellation of low-orbit satellites [3] - Internationally, significant developments include Trump's reaffirmation of the goal to return to the Moon by 2028, SpaceX's plans for an IPO with a target valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion, and advancements in satellite technology by companies like Starcloud and Google [3] Market Growth Projections - According to a report by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, China's commercial aerospace market is expected to exceed 2.5 trillion yuan by 2025, with annual output value in rocket launches and satellite manufacturing projected to reach 85 billion yuan by 2030 [4] - The maturation of reusable rocket technology is anticipated to enable China to achieve 100 launches per year by 2030, with a cost of approximately 10 million yuan per launch [4] Industry Chain Companies - In the upstream sector, key players in rocket manufacturing include Superjet Co., Srey New Materials, Aerospace Power, and others, focusing on rocket structure components and engine support [7] - In satellite manufacturing, China Satellite is a leading company, with others like Guobo Electronics and Zhenlei Technology possessing core technologies in satellite payloads [7] Midstream and Downstream Services - The midstream sector benefits from increased launch frequency, with companies providing rocket launch and recovery services, while ground equipment providers like Haige Communication and Zhongke Xingtai offer ground control and data processing services [8] - Downstream applications focus on satellite communication, remote sensing, and navigation, with companies in the low-altitude economy, such as Lijun Co. and Weihai Guotai, also benefiting from industry integration [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the defense and military industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [5]. Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing a significant upturn, driven by advancements in rocket launch capabilities and supportive policy environments, which are expected to enhance the industry's fundamentals [8][20]. - The global gas turbine market is projected to see substantial growth, with domestic suppliers likely to increase their market share due to rising demand and capacity expansions [10][20]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The defense and military industry comprises 142 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 29,758.55 billion CNY and a circulating market value of about 25,948.25 billion CNY [2]. Commercial Aerospace - New rocket launches, such as the "Zhuque-3" and upcoming tests of the "Vesta-2" and "Long March 12" rockets, are expected to significantly boost China's satellite internet constellation and overall demand for rockets and satellites [8][20]. - The establishment of a dedicated Commercial Aerospace Department by the National Space Administration and the release of a development action plan for 2025-2027 are set to provide a regulatory framework that supports high-quality growth in the sector [8][20]. - The integration of "space computing" into the commercial aerospace landscape is anticipated to create new demand, with major tech companies entering the field [8][20]. Gas Turbine Market - The GEV 2025 Investor Conference highlighted a record number of new gas turbine orders, with expectations for capacity to increase from 20GW to 24GW by 2028, driven by strong market demand and energy transition trends [10][20]. - The global gas turbine market is expected to exceed 100GW in installed capacity over the next decade, with significant growth in the aftermarket services sector [10][20]. Key Sector Dynamics - The aerospace equipment sector is projected to maintain high growth, with GEV's updated production capacity and revenue targets reflecting strong demand driven by AI and energy needs [25]. - Recent advancements in manned space missions and satellite launches underscore China's growing capabilities in aerospace technology [26][29]. Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies for investment include those in missile and military electronics, such as Gaode Infrared, Zhenhua Technology, and Hongyuan Electronics, as well as key players in the aerospace sector like AVIC Chengfei and AVIC Shenyang [16][21][22].

Core Points - Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket successfully launched and achieved its first stage recovery at sea, marking a significant milestone for the company in reusable rocket technology [1][3][5] - This launch positions Blue Origin as the second company globally, after SpaceX, to master rocket recovery technology [3][5] - The New Glenn rocket is designed for multiple uses, with the first stage expected to be reusable up to 25 times, enhancing its competitiveness in the launch market [6][7] Technical Specifications - New Glenn rocket features a two-stage design, with a height of 98 meters and a diameter of 7 meters, providing a launch thrust of 1,750 tons [6] - The first stage has a near-Earth orbit capacity of 45 tons and a geostationary transfer orbit capacity of over 13 tons [6] - The rocket's first stage is powered by seven BE-4 engines using liquid methane and liquid oxygen, while the second stage is equipped with two BE-3U engines [6] Mission Details - The rocket successfully deployed NASA's ESCAPADE twin satellites, which will study Mars' atmosphere, after approximately 34 minutes of flight [6][7] - The ESCAPADE mission will not directly head to Mars but will first enter a near-Earth orbit before making its journey to Mars in 2026 [7] - The launch faced multiple delays due to weather conditions and previous mission failures, highlighting the challenges in the aerospace industry [7] Industry Context - The successful launch of New Glenn adds pressure on China's commercial space sector, which is preparing for the maiden flight of its reusable rocket, Zhuque-3, expected in mid-November [8][11] - Other Chinese rockets, such as Tianlong-3 and Chang Zheng-12A, are also in development, indicating a competitive landscape in the global space launch market [11]

Core Insights - China has planned to launch over 10,000 satellites to provide global network services, but the industry currently faces challenges due to a lack of high-capacity and low-cost network rockets [1] Group 1: Rocket Development - The Tianlong-3 rocket successfully conducted a static fire test on September 15 at the Dongfang Spaceport in Shandong, aiming for a near-Earth orbit carrying capacity of over 20 tons with plans for its maiden flight within the year [1] - Other reusable rockets such as Zhuque-3, Lijian-2, and Changzheng-12A are also expected to have their first flights within the year [1] Group 2: Engine Technology - China's first 220-ton thrust liquid oxygen-methane full-flow staged combustion engine, "Lanyan," has completed over 30 ground ignition tests, achieving a maximum thrust of 50% [1] - This engine is anticipated to support the development of larger capacity rockets in the future [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The executive deputy director of the Commercial Space Research Center at CCID Research Institute predicts that issues related to satellites and rockets are expected to ease by 2026 [1]