【文/观察者网专栏作者 流纹岩】 人类2025年的最后一次航天发射随着长征七号甲遥7火箭从文昌航天发射场发射升空而结束了，全球航 天界也在红红火火中迎来了2026年。 回顾整个2025年，全球总共进行了327次轨道级发射，成功317次，失败10次，其中中国进行了92次轨道 级发射，90次成功。现在有一种说法叫"年年都是航天大年"，在中美两国空间进入能力不断提高的如 今，这句话也确实没什么问题。 人类首枚液氧/丙烷火箭Spectrum"光谱"号首飞，但并未成功 2025年，猎鹰9火箭以165次发射165次成功，163次回收162次成功（1次着陆后煤油泄漏起火导致芯级损 毁），坐稳了世界最强运载火箭的榜首。随着运载能力的进一步挖潜，该火箭的一次性近地轨道运载能 力很可能已经达到23.5吨，同步转移轨道运载能力8.5吨以上。作为世界上空间进入能力最高、投射能力 最强、效费比和周转效率最高的火箭，猎鹰9继续坐稳自己世界第一的宝座。 2025年，星船－超重（Starship-Superheavy）同时迎来了自己的大版本更新和重大挑战。在整个2025年 上半年，该计划几乎未获得任何有效进展。 1月的IFT-7任务中SN- ...

Core Insights - The global space industry experienced significant activity in 2025, with a total of 327 orbital launches, achieving a success rate of 97% [1] - China conducted 92 orbital launches, with 90 successful missions, highlighting its growing capabilities in space exploration [1] Group 1: Launch Successes and Failures - The Falcon 9 rocket achieved 165 successful launches out of 165 attempts, maintaining its position as the world's leading launch vehicle [3] - The Starship-Superheavy program faced multiple failures in 2025, including three significant incidents that resulted in explosions during test flights [3][4][5] - Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket successfully completed its second flight, marking it as the second company to recover an orbital-class rocket [9] Group 2: Challenges in Space Exploration - The Starship-Superheavy system's delays and reliability issues have raised concerns about its role in NASA's Artemis program, with critics suggesting it may require 20 to 40 launches to support a crewed lunar landing [7] - Russia's space program faced operational challenges, including the inability to launch crewed missions due to platform damage, raising questions about its future capabilities [11] - India's GSLV rocket faced a significant failure with the NVS-02 satellite, which was left in an unusable orbit due to a technical oversight [13][14] Group 3: Developments in Chinese Space Programs - China's space program made strides with the successful first flights of the Zhuque-3 and Long March 12 rockets, although both faced challenges during recovery attempts [16][21] - The Chinese manned space program is advancing towards lunar missions, with significant infrastructure developments nearing completion [21] - The Chinese space station encountered a major crisis when a spacecraft window was damaged, leading to an emergency rescue mission [22] Group 4: Future Prospects - The upcoming year, 2026, is anticipated to be another significant year for space exploration, with multiple planned launches and missions, including the Chang'e 7 lunar mission [29][30]

Group 1: Equity Market - The U.S. follows a "private sector-led, government-assisted" approach, where the government acts as an "angel investor" and major customer, while companies drive their own growth [8] - SpaceX is highlighted as a leading player, with its Falcon 9 rocket achieving high recovery rates and the Starlink project amassing over 8 million users, showcasing its strong revenue potential [8][9] Group 2: Commercial Space Race - In the U.S., private companies like Blue Origin and Rocket Lab are competing in the commercial space sector, with Blue Origin focusing on space tourism and Rocket Lab targeting the small satellite market [10] - In China, state-owned enterprises lead the way in commercial space, with China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) and China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC) playing pivotal roles in various space missions and innovations [11] - The private sector in China is also emerging, with companies like Blue Arrow Aerospace and Tianbing Technology developing reusable rockets and innovative propulsion systems [12][13] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Challenges - Key areas of focus include reusable rockets, satellite internet, and AI-enabled space computing, which are seen as crucial for reducing costs and expanding market opportunities [14] - Challenges include the stability of reusable rocket technology and the need for breakthrough applications to create a commercial ecosystem in the space industry [14] Group 4: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market shows positive momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.47% and a total trading volume of 1.92 trillion yuan, indicating strong investor sentiment [15] Group 5: Macro and Fixed Income - The bond market is characterized by strong short-term bonds, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.837% [16] - The central bank's operations include a net injection of 1 trillion yuan through MLF, ensuring ample liquidity in the market [16] Group 6: International Relations and Currency - The U.S. has announced the end of its trade investigation into Chinese chips, which is expected to ease trade tensions and positively impact the technology sector [16] - The Chinese yuan is strengthening, nearing the 7.0 mark against the dollar, supported by strong trade surpluses and favorable economic conditions [16]

Core Viewpoint - 2025 is projected to be a pivotal year for China's commercial space industry, transitioning from technological accumulation to explosive growth, with multiple private aerospace companies completing rocket launch tests and accelerating satellite internet deployment [1] Group 1: Industry Developments - The Chinese government is providing strong support for commercial space through policies, including the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizing the construction of a "space power" and the establishment of a dedicated Commercial Space Administration [1] - Despite a promising outlook, the industry faces significant supply chain challenges, particularly in upstream infrastructure, with a consensus that the bottleneck is not in downstream applications but in launch capacity and costs [1] - The recent successful launch of the Zhuque-3 rocket and the upcoming maiden flight of the Long March 12甲 rocket are seen as significant milestones for China's commercial space sector, potentially reshaping market dynamics [3][4] Group 2: Technological Innovations - The Zhuque-3 rocket, developed by Blue Arrow Aerospace, is a new generation of low-cost, high-capacity, reusable rocket, utilizing a self-developed liquid oxygen-methane engine [3][7] - The Long March 12甲 rocket, developed by China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, emphasizes a stable supply chain by using a liquid oxygen-kerosene engine, reflecting a dual risk approach in China's aerospace strategy [8] - The ultimate goal of reusable rocket technology is to significantly reduce launch costs, with the Zhuque-3 aiming to lower the cost per kilogram to below 20,000 RMB, enhancing China's competitive edge in the global market [9][10] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Predictions indicate that within three years, launch prices in China could approach those of SpaceX, with the potential to undercut SpaceX's Falcon 9 prices in about five years [11] - The competitive focus in the coming years will center on cost control, reliability, fulfillment capabilities, and service responsiveness, as companies strive to meet the growing demand for satellite deployment [11] - The challenges faced by Chinese rocket companies include not only technological hurdles but also the need for systematic engineering and industrialization to catch up with established players like SpaceX [11]

Core Insights - 2025 is projected to be a pivotal year for China's commercial space industry, transitioning from technological accumulation to explosive growth, with multiple private aerospace companies completing rocket launch tests and accelerating satellite internet deployment [1][11] - Policy support is intensifying, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizing the construction of a "space power," and the establishment of a dedicated Commercial Space Administration by the National Space Administration [1][11] - Despite a promising outlook, supply chain weaknesses remain evident, particularly in upstream infrastructure, which is seen as a critical bottleneck for the industry [1][11] Industry Developments - December marked significant advancements in China's reusable rocket technology, highlighted by the launch of the Zhuque-3 rocket, which, despite a recovery failure, provided valuable experience for future developments [2][12] - The Zhuque-3 rocket, developed by Blue Arrow Aerospace, is a new generation of low-cost, high-capacity, reusable liquid oxygen-methane rocket, showcasing advanced features such as a reaction control system and landing legs [2][12] - Following Zhuque-3, the Long March 12甲 rocket, developed by China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, is set for its maiden flight, indicating a rapid progression in China's commercial space capabilities [2][12][13] Market Dynamics - Currently, only the United States has mastered reusable rocket technology, with SpaceX leading the way, having completed over 500 launches and capturing 86% of the global orbital payload market in 2023 [3][13] - In contrast, China's commercial launch capacity remains limited, with a market share in commercial payloads only in the single digits, insufficient to support the ambitious deployment of satellite constellations [3][14] - The urgency for breakthroughs in reusable rocket technology is underscored by the need to address the significant launch capacity gap in the market [4][15] Technological Innovations - The Zhuque-3 rocket's development process emphasized a unique engineering approach, integrating market demand insights and innovative materials like stainless steel to reduce production cycles [6][16] - The Long March 12甲 rocket adopts a different strategy, focusing on stable supply chains and leveraging domestic resources to ensure reliable operations [7][17] - The Tianlong-3 rocket, set for its first flight, aims for high reliability and low-cost delivery, utilizing advanced materials and 3D printing technology [7][17] Cost Reduction Strategies - The ultimate goal of reusable rocket technology is to significantly lower launch costs, with a focus on recovering the first stage of rockets, which constitutes the highest cost component [8][19] - The Zhuque-3 is designed for 20 reuses, with operational costs expected to decrease by approximately 45% after five uses, reflecting a model of high initial investment followed by diminishing marginal costs [8][19] - The target cost for launching per kilogram is set below 20,000 RMB, which would enhance China's competitive edge in the global market [20] Competitive Landscape - The future competition in the rocket market will center on cost control, reliability, fulfillment capabilities, and service responsiveness [10][20] - Chinese companies face significant challenges in catching up with established players like SpaceX, which has spent over a decade refining its technology [10][21] - The ongoing developments in China's commercial space sector indicate a gradual resolution of previously deemed insurmountable challenges, as companies continue to innovate and validate their technologies [21]

进入12月，中国可回收火箭迎来了真正意义上的"压轴之月"。 12月3日，朱雀三号遥一运载火箭在东风商业航天创新试验区发射升空。火箭二级精准进入预定轨道，按程序完成了飞行任务。此次任务同时 开展了火箭一级回收验证，但过程中发生异常燃烧，未实现在回收场坪的软着陆。尽管回收试验失利，但这一成绩仍被视为中国民营航天力量 为火箭回收技术积累了宝贵经验。 朱雀三号是蓝箭航天研制的新一代低成本、大运力、可重复使用液氧甲烷运载火箭。其动力系统基于自主研制的天鹊系列液氧甲烷发动机。火 箭一级装有反作用控制系统、栅格舵与着陆支腿，具备完成轨道发射后实施垂直返回的回收能力。 2025年是中国的商业航天事业从技术积累走向爆发的一年。 这一年，多型号民营航天企业完成火箭发射试验，随着卫星互联网组网加速，商业逻辑逐渐清晰，多型号新型火箭的研制节奏已全面按下快进 键。 同时，政策红利在这一年密集释放，为商业航天提供了有力的支持。"十五五"规划建议将建设"航天强国"纳入重点任务；随后，国家航天局印 发《国家航天局推进商业航天高质量安全发展行动计划（2025—2027年）》，将商业航天纳入国家航天发展总体布局；11月末，国家航天局设 立商业航 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent launch of the Zhuque-3 rocket by Blue Arrow Aerospace marks China's first attempt at orbital-level recovery verification for reusable rockets, despite the failure of the first stage recovery during the landing process [1][5]. Group 1: Launch and Recovery Attempt - The Zhuque-3 rocket successfully completed its flight mission and the second stage entered the designated orbit, but the first stage experienced an abnormal burn during recovery, leading to a failed vertical return test [1]. - The recovery of rockets is highly complex, requiring perfect coordination of sensors, grid fins, flight control algorithms, and variable thrust engines, with many issues only becoming apparent during real flight tests [1]. Group 2: Historical Context and Comparisons - Historically, successful orbital-level recovery tests are rare, with failures being the norm; for instance, SpaceX's Falcon 9 experienced multiple failures before achieving successful landings [1][5]. - Blue Arrow Aerospace, founded in 2015, has made significant progress in developing reusable rockets, with the Zhuque-3 showing comparable performance to SpaceX's Falcon 9 and even surpassing some design metrics [5]. Group 3: Industry Environment and Public Perception - The commercial space industry is an important complement to national space efforts, characterized by efficiency, flexibility, low costs, and a willingness to take risks; a supportive environment that embraces failure is essential for its growth [5]. - The public response to the Zhuque-3's failure has been largely positive, reflecting a scientific understanding of the risks involved in commercial space endeavors and a strong confidence in national technological progress [5].

Core Insights - Blue Origin, founded by Jeff Bezos, is making progress in its orbital launch business and is now competing with SpaceX for NASA's manned lunar missions by 2028 [1][4][6] - The company successfully launched its New Glenn rocket and plans to increase launch frequency, including a lunar cargo mission in early 2026 [1][2] - Blue Origin's CEO, Dave Limp, is restructuring the company to accelerate operations and improve public perception of its development speed [2][3] Company Developments - Blue Origin has undergone a workforce reduction of about 10% and has restructured its management to enhance operational efficiency [3] - The company aims to challenge SpaceX's dominance in the rocket and satellite operations sector by focusing on lunar missions as a key competitive area [4][5] - Blue Origin has secured a NASA contract to build a larger crewed lunar lander for future manned missions [4][5] Lunar Mission Strategy - The company plans to launch a small cargo lander named "Blue Moon Mark 1" to the lunar surface early next year, which will gather critical data and deliver a NASA research device [4][7] - Blue Origin's simplified lunar landing plan includes developing a crewed version of the cargo lander for short-term lunar stays, targeting a manned lunar landing by the end of 2028 [7] - The proposed crewed vehicle will utilize storable propellants, avoiding the complexities of in-space refueling, and will rely on hardware that is already in development or testing [7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Commercial Aerospace and Satellite Internet Industry Overview - The commercial aerospace industry is experiencing multiple turning points, driven by increased policy support and positive performance changes in key companies during Q3 2025, indicating an acceleration in industry development [1][2][12]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Turning Points in Commercial Aerospace**: Three turning points identified include: 1. **Policy Support**: The establishment of commercial aerospace agencies announced by the State Council [2]. 2. **Performance Changes**: Positive Q3 performance from key beneficiary companies [2]. 3. **Technological Developments**: Focus on reusable rocket technology and NTN standard systems, with several domestic companies planning intensive launches by the end of 2025 [2][6]. - **Global Competition in Reusable Rocket Technology**: - SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Starship are operational, while Blue Origin's New Glenn has achieved first-stage recovery [3][4]. - Domestic companies like Blue Arrow are also preparing for multiple launches, marking a new phase in global commercial aerospace [1][3]. - **Challenges in Computing Power in Space**: - Issues such as bandwidth limitations, complex space environments, and equipment depreciation pose challenges for deploying computing power in space, necessitating exploration of solutions [5]. - **2026 Commercial Aerospace Outlook**: - The first year of the "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to see significant changes, including reduced satellite launch costs and increased launch capacity due to the intensive launch schedule of domestic companies [6][12]. - **Significance of Zhuque 3 Launch**: - Zhuque 3, a commercial rocket, launched ahead of state-backed projects, showcasing advancements in domestic aerospace technology and boosting confidence in the sector [7][8]. Additional Important Insights - **Global and Chinese Launch Performance**: - As of November 2025, there have been 277 global orbital launches, with China leading in numbers, having completed 72 launches, surpassing the total for the previous year [9][12]. - **SpaceX Starship Testing Progress**: - SpaceX's Starship project has faced challenges but is crucial for the Artemis program and the global heavy-lift market, highlighting the difficulties even leading companies face in technological innovation [10]. - **Recent Breakthroughs in China's Reusable Rocket Technology**: - Significant advancements have been made, with companies like Blue Arrow achieving rapid progress in developing reusable rockets, aiming to reduce launch costs by 80-90% [11]. - **Policy Support in the US and China**: - Both countries have implemented supportive policies for the commercial aerospace sector, enhancing the industry's competitiveness and commercialization [12]. - **Key Technologies of Blue Origin's New Glenn Rocket**: - New Glenn features a height of 98 meters and a payload capacity of over 50 tons, designed for reusability to lower overall launch costs [13][14]. - **Challenges Faced by Rocket Lab**: - Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket development has been delayed, with plans for a 2026 launch, emphasizing the need for innovative designs to reduce costs [15]. - **Current Status of Domestic Private Rocket Companies**: - These companies have developed a robust ecosystem, with leading firms achieving multiple successful launches and diversifying their technological approaches [16]. - **Launch Site Resource Constraints**: - There is a shortage of launch site resources in China, prompting expansions and new constructions to meet growing demand [17]. - **Investment Directions in the Rocket Industry**: - The rocket industry value chain includes high-tech materials, manufacturing, and launch services, with potential investment opportunities in companies preparing for IPOs [18].

Group 1 - The Dow futures rose by 0.36%, S&P 500 futures increased by 0.11%, while Nasdaq futures fell by 0.05% [1] - Cathie Wood's ARK Investment Management purchased 93,374 shares of Nvidia following the company's strong earnings report, marking the first purchase of Nvidia shares since August 4 [1] - Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, falling below $82,000 and reaching a low of $81,330, marking the lowest point since April 7, with a daily decline of over 9% [1] Group 2 - Blue Origin, founded by Amazon's Jeff Bezos, announced plans to build a new heavy-lift rocket that will be larger and more powerful than its existing New Glenn rocket [1] - Middle Eastern airlines made substantial purchases at the Dubai Airshow, with Boeing and Airbus receiving multi-billion dollar orders, including Emirates Airlines ordering 65 Boeing 777-9 aircraft [1]