*免责声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议 *风险提示：股市有风险，入市需谨慎 超捷股份：公司为商业火箭箭体结构件制造，包括箭体大部段(壳段)，整流罩，燃料贮箱，发动机阀门 等，客户有蓝箭航天，天兵科技，中科宇航等国内头部民营商业航天企业。 东方日升：公司的p型超薄HJT电池产品适配卷迭式卫星太阳翼，在欧洲及北美地区已有小批量成功交 付。 据央视新闻1月29日报道，从中国航天科技集团获悉，未来集团将实施商业运载能力提升工程，就是要 研制具备国际竞争力的商业运载火箭，实现航班化运输。可重复使用商业火箭方面，形成近地轨道20吨 级重复使用状态运载能力，实现重复使用火箭规模化，商业化成熟应用。重型运载火箭方面，完成重型 运载火箭研制和相关重复使用试验，具备近地轨道百吨级入轨能力。 东吴证券认为，长期以来，我国商业航天的核心痛点在于"星多箭少"，即海量卫星组网需求受制于极度 稀缺的投送能力。步入2026年，行业将迎来技术闭环、订单释放与资本溢价的多重共振。随着长征十号 甲，朱雀三号遥二等可回收火箭进入密集首飞期，叠加 SpaceX星舰V3于2026Q1的试飞，中国商业航天 正进入"加速追赶"的战略快车道，确立了其作 ...

明日主题前瞻 1、旅游 | 国务院办公厅日前印发《加快培育服务消费新增长点工作方案》，其中提到：旅居服务。培育一批旅居目的地城市(区域)。鼓励有条件的地方发挥 相关财政资金，产业基金引导作用，完善旅居目的地基础设施，推动存量设施提升改造。依法盘活用好农村闲置土地和房屋。鼓励地方结合消化存量房地产 等政策落实，支持旅居项目用地和服务设施建设。 点评：国泰海通证券认为，龙头旅游企业受益于政策支持，随着职工文体消费的增长，预计这些企业将在短期内受益于政策推动，长期则有望实现业绩的持 续增长。特别是在景区年票，文旅消费券等优惠措施的推动下，相关行业的消费需求将进一步释放，带来潜在的增长机会。另外，近期全国总工会等部门联 合印发《关于深入推进新时代职工文体工作高质量发展扩大职工文体消费的意见》，中信证券认为，政策有望在2026年为国内旅游市场带来500亿-1650亿元 的年度增量，对行业增长带动可观。 2、商业航天 | 据央视新闻报道，从中国航天科技集团获悉，未来集团将实施商业运载能力提升工程，就是要研制具备国际竞争力的商业运载火箭，实现航 班化运输。可重复使用商业火箭方面，形成近地轨道20吨级重复使用状态运载能力，实 ...

东吴证券指出，步入2026年，行业将迎来技术闭环、订单释放与资本溢价的多重共振。随着长征十号 甲、朱雀三号遥二等可回收火箭进入密集首飞期，叠加SpaceX星舰V3于2026Q1的试飞压力，中国商业 航天正被迫进入"加速追赶"的战略快车道，确立了其作为国家级战略新兴产业的独特性。2025年全球商 业航天市场规模预计突破5000亿美元，2030年预计达到8000亿美元，2025-2030年CAGR约10%。 消息面上，1月29日，据央视新闻报道，中国航天科技集团今日表示，我国商业航天已奠定坚实的发展 基础。未来十年，是我国加快建设航天强国、发展新质生产力的"关键十年"，"十五五"更是关键时期。 中国航天科技集团还表示，我国商业航天将全面实施"155"战略，"1"就是锚定一流目标。以"五个一 流"为标准，建成技术先进、产品卓越、供给强健、服务优质的商业航天器及应用产业链。 智通财经APP获悉，商业航天概念回暖，截至发稿，钧达股份(02865)涨11.53%，报38.64港元；亚太卫 星(01045)涨6.33%，报4.37港元；中国技术集团(01725)涨1.15%，报0.88港元；金风科技(02208)涨 0.5 ...

东吴证券指出，步入2026年，行业将迎来技术闭环、订单释放与资本溢价的多重共振。随着长征十号 甲、朱雀三号遥二等可回收火箭进入密集首飞期，叠加SpaceX星舰V3于2026Q1的试飞压力，中国商业 航天正被迫进入"加速追赶"的战略快车道，确立了其作为国家级战略新兴产业的独特性。2025年全球商 业航天市场规模预计突破5000亿美元，2030年预计达到8000亿美元，2025-2030年CAGR约10%。 消息面上，1月29日，据央视新闻报道，中国航天科技（000901）集团今日表示，我国商业航天已奠定 坚实的发展基础。未来十年，是我国加快建设航天强国、发展新质生产力的"关键十年"，"十五五"更是 关键时期。中国航天科技集团还表示，我国商业航天将全面实施"155"战略，"1"就是锚定一流目标。 以"五个一流"为标准，建成技术先进、产品卓越、供给强健、服务优质的商业航天器及应用产业链。 商业航天概念回暖，截至发稿，钧达股份（002865）(02865)涨11.53%，报38.64港元；亚太卫星(01045) 涨6.33%，报4.37港元；中国技术集团(01725)涨1.15%，报0.88港元；金风科技（00220 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the commercial aerospace industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the coming months [1]. Core Insights - The commercial aerospace industry is expected to undergo a significant transformation by 2026, driven by advancements in launch capabilities and the successful deployment of domestic rockets, which will remove previous constraints on industry growth [8][9]. - The competition in commercial aerospace is fundamentally a "land grab" for space sovereignty and resource allocation, emphasizing the need for increased launch frequency to secure China's position in low Earth orbit [10]. - The report highlights the strategic importance of commercial aerospace in national defense and resource acquisition, particularly in the context of lunar resources like Helium-3, which could reshape global energy dynamics [12]. - Key catalysts for the industry include domestic policy support and capital market developments, with significant IPOs expected from leading aerospace companies in 2026 [13][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Why has the domestic commercial aerospace industry reached a qualitative change? - The industry has transitioned from a limited payload capacity to a robust launch capability, marked by the successful launch of the Zhuque-3 rocket, which signifies a shift from speculative themes to a narrative driven by operational capacity [8]. 2. How to understand the importance of commercial aerospace? - The scarcity of low Earth orbit resources has made the commercial aerospace race a critical national strategy, with the need to enhance launch frequency to secure space assets and maintain competitive advantages [10][11]. 3. What subsequent catalysts are worth paying attention to in commercial aerospace? 3.1. Domestic: Accelerated release of policy and capital dividends - The report anticipates significant policy support and capital market activity, with major aerospace companies expected to enter the IPO market in 2026, reflecting the strategic importance of the sector [13]. 3.2. International: Clear policy framework and tight planning timeline - The U.S. has shifted from a public to a private ownership model for space resources, establishing a legal framework that encourages commercial investment in space resource development [15][16]. 4. Investment Recommendations 4.1. SpaceX Concept - Companies that could potentially enter the SpaceX supply chain are highlighted, indicating a strong future in commercial aerospace [17]. 4.2. Rocket Sector: "Many Stars, Few Rockets" Expected to Breakthrough - The report suggests that advancements in large-capacity reusable rocket technology will lead to significant changes and valuation adjustments in the sector [19]. 4.3. Satellite Sector: Certainty in Implementation - The urgency to secure low Earth orbit resources is driving domestic satellite constellations from planning to large-scale deployment [20]. 4.4. Space Computing and Space Photovoltaics: Next-Generation Core Tracks - The report identifies space computing and space photovoltaics as critical future sectors, emphasizing their role in supporting lunar economies and global intelligence ecosystems [22].

Group 1 - The third China Commercial Space Development Conference was held on December 24, where the Commercial Space Industry Alliance Innovation Fund was officially launched, with an initial issuance scale of 1 to 2 billion, aiming to expand to 10 billion in the long term, focusing on four key areas: low Earth orbit satellite constellations and satellite internet, reusable launch vehicles and rocket launch services, new materials and devices for commercial space, and space resource development and emerging space services [1] - As of November, the global average number of launches exceeded 26 per month, marking the entry of the global space industry into a "weekly launch era," with an expected total of over 320 launches for the year, setting a new historical record [1] - According to the China Commercial Space Industry Research Report, there have been 325 space launches globally to date, with 4,026 spacecraft in orbit, including 87 launches from China (84 successful), and 23 launches executed by private commercial rocket companies, placing 324 spacecraft into orbit [1] Group 2 - Starting from the end of 2025, several new models of commercial rockets are expected to undergo reusable experiments, including Tianbing Technology's Tianlong-3, Blue Arrow Aerospace's Zhuque-3, and others [2] - The China Manned Space Engineering Office has announced plans for four flight missions in 2026, including Tianzhou-10 and Shenzhou-23, while private rockets continue to overcome technical bottlenecks, with Tianlong-3 planning its maiden flight [2] - Dongwu Securities indicated that after batch maiden flights, commercial rockets are expected to transition from quantity to quality in 2026, leading to a rapid expansion of the entire space industry [3] Group 3 - The satellite ETF Guangfa (512630) has rebounded by 24.41% since its last low, with the China Satellite Industry Index rising by 3.28% on December 25, 2025 [3] - The index tracks 50 listed companies across satellite manufacturing, launching, communication, navigation, and remote sensing, reflecting the core competitiveness and overall development trend of China's satellite industry [3] - The index's composition focuses on upstream satellite manufacturing and launching, including companies like Aerospace Electronics and China Satellite, while also covering midstream ground equipment and operations, and downstream application services [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant impact of the successful launch of the Long March 12 rocket on the satellite industry, leading to substantial inflows into the satellite industry ETF and notable stock price increases for several companies in the sector [1] - The Long March 10B reusable rocket is expected to achieve its first flight by April 2026, with plans for it to operate alongside other Long March variants at a dedicated commercial launch site in Hainan, indicating a strategic push in China's space capabilities [1] - The cost of commercial space transportation in China is projected to decrease from approximately 100,000 yuan per kilogram to below 30,000 yuan, which could enhance the competitiveness of the satellite industry and accelerate the deployment of satellite constellations [1] Group 2 - The satellite industry ETF (159218) tracks the CSI Satellite Industry Index, which encompasses satellite manufacturing, launch, ground equipment manufacturing, navigation, communication, and other related technologies, emphasizing the importance of satellite manufacturing in China's current industrial development [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the launch of the Commercial Aerospace Industry Alliance Fund at the Third China Commercial Aerospace Development Conference, highlighting the growth and investment opportunities in the commercial aerospace sector in China [4]. Group 1: Fund and Investment - The fund has an initial issuance scale of 1 to 2 billion, with a long-term goal of expanding to 10 billion, and a duration of 10 years, aiming for approximately 70% project exit [4]. - Investment directions focus on four key areas: low Earth orbit satellite constellations and satellite internet, reusable launch vehicles and rocket launch services, new materials and devices for commercial aerospace, and space resource development and emerging space services [4]. Group 2: Launch Statistics and Projections - As of November, the global average monthly launches exceed 26, indicating a shift to a "weekly launch era," with an expected total of over 320 launches for the year, setting a historical record [4]. - Currently, there have been 325 space launches globally, with 4,026 spacecraft in orbit, including 87 launches from China (84 successful), and 23 missions executed by private commercial rocket companies, placing 324 spacecraft into orbit [4]. Group 3: Future Missions and Technological Developments - The China Manned Space Engineering Office has announced plans for four missions in 2026, including the Tianzhou-10 and Shenzhou-23 and 24 missions, with the Mengzhou-1 mission set to use the Long March 10A reusable rocket for the first time [5]. - The Long March 10B reusable rocket is expected to achieve its first flight conditions by April 2026 [5]. - The recent launch of the Long March 12A rocket provided key engineering data for future recovery of rocket stages, despite not achieving the recovery goal in this mission [5]. Group 4: Low Earth Orbit Satellite Internet Development - China’s low Earth orbit satellite internet construction is entering a new phase of intensive deployment, with major companies like Xingwang Group and Yuanxin Satellite planning large-scale satellite tenders in 2026 [6]. - This round of tenders is expected to significantly increase satellite demand and drive collaborative development across the entire industry chain, from rocket to satellite manufacturing and payload support [6]. - East Wu Securities predicts that commercial rockets will transition from a phase of quantity to quality by 2026, marking the beginning of a new era of rocket recovery in China, with a "supply-demand resonance" expected to drive rapid expansion in the aerospace industry [6].