在金融市场摸爬滚打三十多年后，我对市场运行方式和人性多少算是摸出点基本规律。其中一条就是： 只要能让人赚大钱，人类几乎什么都愿意相信。 这解释了这些年来种种荒唐的金融故事，也解释了为 何市场普遍倾向于把美联储的政策决定往"更有利风险资产"的方向去解读。有时这种逻辑在稍后的市场 表现中被证明是对的，有时则不然。与此同时，债券市场在"收益率曲线趋陡压力"和"抢收益"这两只怪 兽之间左右为难。这两种力量中，前者最终应该会占上风。长债收益率虽然看起来快触及5%这个"诱人 水平"，但如果放在我们当前所处的政策周期背景下，其实并没有那么吸引人。 如今，美联储的声明就像罗夏墨迹测验：你能看到的东西很大程度上取决于你的视角。这部分源于决策 层那边可分析的东西太多：除了政策声明本身和利率决定，还有经济预测和鲍威尔记者会。正如周三笔 者所指出的，经济预测和点阵图所隐含的反应函数相比过去一年更偏向鹰派，而鲍威尔似乎在暗示，在 政策利率接近中性利率区间上端之际，美联储可以等待数据引路，再决定下一步政策行动。 股票和债券市场都给出了更偏鸽派的解读。当然，正如昨天说的，这不算新鲜事：历史上债市定价通常 会在几周后回归到和美联储反应函数相 ...

花旗研究部策略师表示，由于预期美联储降息步伐缓慢，未来几个月长期美国国债需求可能持续偏弱。 该行指出："相对缓慢的货币政策宽松步伐，应会制约市场对长期美国国债的需求。"策略师补充称，美 联储面临的政治压力进一步强化了这一预期。 来源：环球市场播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of dynamic rebalancing in asset allocation to maintain the intended risk and return profile of an investment portfolio amidst market fluctuations [1][2][3]. Group 1: Asset Allocation and Market Dynamics - Asset allocation involves distributing funds across various asset types, such as stocks and bonds, to achieve specific investment goals [1]. - Market volatility can lead to a drift in the initial asset allocation, affecting the risk profile and potentially leading to missed opportunities or increased risk exposure [2][3]. Group 2: Dynamic Rebalancing Strategy - Dynamic rebalancing is based on the principle of mean reversion, where asset prices tend to fluctuate around an average level over time [3]. - Without dynamic rebalancing, an investment portfolio may deviate significantly from its intended asset allocation, leading to unintended risk exposure [3][4]. Group 3: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio - The Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio strategy allocates funds equally among four asset classes: stocks, long-term bonds, gold, and cash or short-term treasury bills, aiming for stable returns across different economic conditions [4]. - The initial allocation is 25% for each asset class, which is designed to perform well in varying economic environments [4]. Group 4: Performance Comparison - Data from 2014 to 2025 shows that portfolios with dynamic rebalancing have similar long-term annualized returns compared to those without rebalancing, but with significantly lower maximum drawdowns [7][8]. - The Sharpe ratio, which measures risk-adjusted returns, is higher for rebalanced portfolios, indicating better performance under similar risk conditions [8]. Group 5: Implementation of Dynamic Rebalancing - The article introduces a dynamic rebalancing signal system, which monitors key asset performance indicators and provides guidance on adjusting asset allocations [9][10]. - This system helps investors maintain discipline in their investment strategies, reducing emotional decision-making during market fluctuations [10][11].