2026 年 01 月 10 日 FOF 基金：2025 年度策略回顾与 2026 年度策略展望 证 券 研 究 相关研究 证券分析师 白皓天 A0230525070001 baiht@swsresearch.com 蒋辛 A0230521080002 jiangxin@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 白皓天 A0230525070001 baiht@swsresearch.com 目录 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 权 益 量 化 研 究 量 化 策 略 报 告 - ⚫ 规模维度：2025 年规模逆势回升，累计规模已超过 2021 年末水平。1）从数量来看， 2025 年 FOF 新发产品数量有明显提升，2025 年内共计新发 FOF93 只，对比去年 38 只 的新发数量明显上升；2）FOF 总规模逆势回升，2025 年内 FOF 规模累计 2383.76 亿 元，相比 2024 年末上升 1052.26 亿元；其中，年内规模增量主要源于新发规模，新发 规 ...

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Report Title - In the Era of Multi - asset Investments, Riding the Waves: Outlook for the Public Offering FOF Business and Product Layout in 2026 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since Q4 2024, the overall scale of public offering FOFs has rebounded, reaching a new high since Q4 2022, mainly due to China Merchants Bank's "Long - term Prosperity Plan" and the increasing market recognition of multi - asset allocation for achieving fixed - income plus returns after the rapid decline in interest rates [10]. - Multi - asset low - volatility FOFs face issues such as potential overcrowding, reliance on the performance of gold and US stocks, and the need to build competitiveness through further asset diversification, strategy specialization, and product differentiation [49][54]. - High - volatility FOFs have a natural advantage in the personal pension Y - share market, and in the new regulatory environment, they can evolve in directions such as building low - volatility products under the same benchmark and making style - based asset allocations [103][114] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Public Offering FOF Industry Status - **Scale and Product Trends**: After years of overall decline, the scale of public offering FOFs started to rebound in Q4 2024, with positive net inflows for three consecutive quarters. The "Long - term Prosperity Plan" of China Merchants Bank brought about a scale of approximately 60 billion yuan, driving the development of the FOF industry. Most FOFs with large scale growth and initial issuance in 2025 belong to the "Long - term Prosperity Plan", mainly bond FOFs or fixed - income plus FOFs [10][12]. - **Asset Allocation**: Multi - asset allocation has become a common choice for FOFs. In Q3 2025, leading fund managers generally increased their allocation to QDII, mutual - recognition funds, and commodities while maintaining their allocation to active equity, fixed - income plus, and pure - bond funds [17]. - **Personal Pension Y - share**: In Q3, the scale of personal pension funds reached 12.817 billion yuan, a significant increase from Q2 2025. Pension target - date funds are more popular, and high - equity - position products in personal pension accounts are more favored. The scale of equity - type and 2050 - series FOFs increased significantly [28][32] 3.2 Next Evolution Direction of Multi - asset Investments - **Asset - side**: To overcome the "reliance on gold and US stocks", multi - asset FOFs should further diversify and increase sources of returns. Public REITs can be considered as a substitute for bonds, and commodity - type funds such as non - ferrous metal futures, chemical futures, and soybean meal futures can enhance the diversification effect of FOFs [56][64]. - **Strategy - side**: The ability to be familiar with alternative assets can be a competitive barrier for multi - asset investment. Multi - asset allocation frameworks can be labeled, transparent, and tool - based. The deployment of various assets under a stable allocation framework tests the tactical ability of fund managers, and the deployment models can be macro - driven, risk - driven, or value - driven [69][82] - **Multi - asset + Multi - strategy**: If bond yields remain low in the long term, multi - asset low - volatility FOFs can reduce bond allocation and adopt a multi - asset + multi - strategy model. By strategizing single assets and combining them with a risk - parity weighting, a quasi - absolute - return strategy can be formed [92] 3.3 Future of High - volatility FOFs - **Natural Battlefield - Personal Pension Y - share**: High - volatility FOFs are more popular in the personal pension Y - share market. The "search for lower points" model can be adopted in the Y - share business to promote the development of the third pillar of pensions [103]. - **Friendly Environment from High - quality Public Offering Development**: The high - quality development of the public offering industry provides a more favorable environment for FOFs. Due to their low - volatility characteristics, FOFs can offer better returns to investors [109]. - **Evolution Direction in the New Regulatory Environment**: In the new regulatory era with clear performance benchmarks, high - volatility FOFs can build low - volatility products under the same benchmark, improve the holding experience, and make style - based asset allocations to adapt to different market conditions [114][117]