来源：泽平宏观展望 文：泽平宏观团队 导读 房地产是国民经济第一大支柱行业，事关经济增长、民生就业和金融风险，一定要软着陆，避免硬着 陆。 当前我国房地产从大开发时代向存量时代转型，20-50岁主力购房人群到达拐点，供求关系发生重大变 化，未来形势如何？ 后房地产时代，中国房地产未来有十大趋势： 1、房地产大开发时代落幕，进入存量房主导时代。"房地产长期看人口、中期看土地、短期看金融"， 当前20-50岁主力购房人群的人口长周期拐点已出现，城镇化率达67%，套户比超过1.1。 2、人口进一步向都市圈城市群集聚，分化加大。东北、西北、低能级城市人口面临持续流出压力，未 来仅有两成城市人口持续流入，出现二八现象。 3、构建房地产新模式。核心包括好房子建设，保障房、长租房，预售制改革，人地挂钩，房地产税， 以实现供求平衡和长期平稳健康发展。 4、未来住房市场的三大支撑：改善型需求、城市更新、保障房需求。未来的房地产市场将更侧重于质 量而非数量。 5、城市更新将进入大力实施新阶段。通过旧城改造、城中村改造等，提升城市面貌和居住品质。存量 时代房屋老化问题凸显，开展城市更新成为城市发展新动力，补安全短板、稳房屋价值。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 marks a critical juncture for the deepening reform of state-owned enterprises, with Changsha Economic and Technological Development Group (hereinafter referred to as Changsha Group) undertaking comprehensive market-oriented transformation across various dimensions to drive regional economic development [1] Group 1: Reform and Organizational Restructuring - Changsha Group has initiated a "true reform" approach by reshaping its organizational mechanisms to facilitate market-oriented transformation [2] - The company has restructured its business framework to focus on "large investment, large construction, large capital, large operations, and large intelligent manufacturing," addressing issues such as low marketization and long management chains [2] - The group has achieved over 30% reduction in the number of subsidiaries and an 18% optimization rate in middle management personnel, while also compressing management levels from five to three [2] Group 2: Performance and Compensation System - The performance and compensation reform emphasizes a "profit-based" approach, linking employee income directly to performance and efficiency [3] - A strict system has been implemented where "increased efficiency leads to increased pay, while decreased efficiency results in reduced pay," ensuring that income is closely tied to contributions [3] Group 3: Strategic Business Expansion - The restructuring has laid the groundwork for strategic business expansion, with subsidiaries targeting new markets and business models for growth [4] - The company has successfully attracted 43 quality industrial projects, with total investment reaching 7.5 billion yuan, transitioning from policy-driven to value-driven investment strategies [4] Group 4: Service Optimization and Value Creation - Changsha Group is evolving from a provider of infrastructure to an enabler of industrial development, enhancing its service offerings to improve the regional business environment [10][11] - The company has implemented a comprehensive service model that includes policy consulting and resource integration, supporting the growth of enterprises within its ecosystem [10] Group 5: Risk Management and Safety - Risk management is prioritized as a cornerstone of high-quality development, with a multi-dimensional risk control network established to ensure sustainable reform [12] - The group has innovated financing tools to optimize its debt structure, achieving an 11.78% reduction in average financing costs compared to the previous year [12] - Safety production measures have been strictly enforced, resulting in zero accidents over multiple years and numerous industry awards for quality and safety [13]

一、国家政策：四个取消、四个降低、两个增加 这几年"催买房"的口号喊得震天响，可市场愣是没反应——2024年全国商品房销售面积跌到7.5亿平方米，比2021年的峰值直接腰斩 。更揪心的是库存， 全国广义库存面积超120亿平方米，按照现在的销售速度，得7年才能消化完 。 土地市场也凉透了，2024年前10个月房地产开发投资同比下降10.3%，地方政府土地出让金缩水31.8% 。但国家这次真是动真格了，从中央到地方甩出一 套"组合拳"，直接把市场从悬崖边拉了回来。 2024年堪称房地产政策大年，光中央层面就甩出王炸级操作： 1. 税费大减负 2024年12月1日起，财政部、税务总局联合出手 ： - 契税：首套房140平方米以下直接按1%收，140平方米以上也降到1.5%；二套房统一按2%，北上广深这些一线城市也不搞特殊化了。 - 增值税：个人卖房满2年就免征，以前非普通住宅要交的增值税彻底取消。这政策一落地，北京一套500万的二手房直接省下25万税费！ - 土地增值税：东部省份预征率从2%降到1.5%，中西部最低0.5%，房企现金流压力一下减轻。 2. 金融工具箱全开 2024年9月29日，央行放出四个大招 ： ...

海西房产网（微信公众号：fjhxfcw）消息：2025年5月25日，福建省人民政府办公厅发布"关于印发《福建省提振消费专项行动实施方案》的通知"。 "通知"明确，鼓励各地因地制宜探索多主体收购模式，支持各地收购存量商品房作为大学生宿舍、社区养老服务用房、职工宿舍、农民工保障房、人才 房、青年公寓等。 此前，福州安住发展有限公司副总经理潘景对外表示，5000余套存量住房房源分散于福州四个主城区鼓楼、台江、晋安、仓山，覆盖106个小区，计划于 2025年底前分多个批次装修入市。 早在2023年5月8日，福州市住房保障和房产管理局就曾对外透露，福州成为全国批量收购存量住房扩大租赁住房供给的8个试点城市之一。 就在7月31日，一篇题为"左海集团二季度高质量发展全景扫描"的报道透露，福州工业园区集团布局26个"好房子"标杆项目， 建成在建5家集中式U厝，收 购5000余套分散式公寓分批入市并全面升级，覆盖100多个小区，满足群众对优居的多元需求。 这其中就包括，福州安住发展有限公司的三次收购： | | 璟云公馆1#202、金辉珑岳花园二区7#101等232套住宅打包转让竞价结果公告 交易项目编号:RCJ2025036 ...