此外，雅诗兰黛预计2026财年营收146.9亿美元，预测经调整后每股收益增长26-39%；预计2026年有机 净销售额增长0%-3%，市场预估增长1.94%。 格隆汇8月20日｜雅诗兰黛(EL.US)盘前跳水，一度大跌逾15%至76.1美元。消息面上， 雅诗兰黛第四财 季净销售额34.1亿美元，预估34亿美元；经调整后每股收益9美分，预估7.3美分。 雅诗兰黛2025财年营业收入143.26亿美元，同比下降8%；营业利润率从上一年的6.2%降至5.5%。2025 财年，每股普通股摊薄净(亏损)收益降至净亏损3.15美元，而前一年的净收益为1.08美元；调整后的稀 释每股普通股净收益降至1.51美元，而之前为2.59美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of shopping malls in China, highlighting the shift from traditional cosmetics brands to new categories such as trendy toys, outdoor sports, and tea beverage brands, referred to as the "Four Kings" of modern retail [6][11][12]. Group 1: Transformation of Retail Landscape - The flagship store of Innisfree, a Korean beauty brand, has been replaced by Pop Mart, a trendy toy company, symbolizing a broader trend in retail [6][8]. - The "Four Kings" now dominating mall spaces include trendy toys, outdoor sports, new energy vehicles, and diverse tea brands, reflecting changing consumer preferences [8][11]. - The vacancy rate in shopping malls has approached 14% in major cities, providing an opportunity for the "Four Kings" to establish a presence [11]. Group 2: Decline of Traditional Brands - The number of cosmetic counters in China has decreased from 15,415 in 2020 to 11,365 in 2022, with low-end cosmetics experiencing the most significant decline [11][12]. - High-end cosmetic brands like Chanel and Lancôme continue to maintain their presence in malls despite overall declines in sales [12][14]. Group 3: New Entrants and Market Dynamics - New energy vehicle brands have become prominent in malls, with Tesla being a pioneer in this space, shifting the focus from traditional car dealerships to experiential retail [18][19]. - The tea beverage market has seen rapid changes, with brands like Nayuki and Heytea adapting to consumer preferences, while others like Tiger Sugar have exited the market [22][24]. Group 4: Future Trends and Opportunities - The article notes that while the "Four Kings" dominate, there are still opportunities for emerging brands like Mao Geping, which has expanded rapidly in the offline market [32][35]. - The future of retail remains uncertain, with the potential for new categories to emerge and replace existing ones, indicating a dynamic and evolving market landscape [36].

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the stock and real estate markets to boost consumer spending, indicating a positive outlook for the consumption sector as asset prices stabilize [3][4]. Core Insights - The relationship between asset prices and consumer spending is complex, with asset price increases leading to higher income levels and economic activity, which in turn boosts consumption [3][5]. - The report highlights that real estate assets dominate household wealth in China, making housing price stability crucial for consumer confidence and spending [3][10]. - The impact of asset price fluctuations on discretionary consumption is more pronounced than on essential consumption, with discretionary spending responding more immediately to asset price changes [24][30]. - The report identifies key investment themes in the consumption sector, including smart consumption driven by technological advancements, the preferences of Generation Z, and the aging population's consumption needs [3][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Impact of Asset Prices on Consumption - The report outlines five main effects through which asset prices influence consumption: wealth effect, expectation effect, borrowing effect, savings effect, and cultural effect [5][6]. - It notes that the wealth and expectation effects are dominant, with a growing influence from borrowing and savings effects [6][10]. 2. Differences in Impact Between Housing and Stock Prices - Housing assets significantly outweigh financial assets in Chinese households, leading to a greater impact of housing price changes on consumer behavior compared to stock prices [10][12]. - The report discusses the synchronized movements of housing and stock prices, noting that while they often rise and fall together, their effects on consumption differ [19][20]. 3. Consumption Categories and Asset Price Influence - The report categorizes consumption into essential and discretionary, stating that asset price changes have a more immediate effect on discretionary spending [24][30]. - It emphasizes the need for updated classifications of consumption categories to reflect changing consumer behaviors and preferences [30]. 4. Investment Strategies Based on Asset Price Trends - The report suggests differentiated investment strategies for high-end and mass-market products, indicating that high-end products tend to perform well in strong liquidity environments [32][34]. - It highlights the importance of aligning investment strategies with the current economic cycle and consumer trends [32][34]. 5. Sector-Specific Insights - The report provides insights into specific sectors such as high-end liquor, where the relationship between asset prices and consumption is particularly strong [39][40]. - It also discusses the performance of high-end traditional Chinese medicine products, noting their resilience despite economic fluctuations [55][58].