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Group 1 - Company clarified that recent media reports regarding a potential acquisition of Canada Goose Holdings Inc. are inaccurate and that there is no undisclosed information [1] - Company urged shareholders and potential investors to act cautiously when trading its shares [1] Group 2 - Company, founded in 1976 in Changshu, Jiangsu Province, primarily engages in the development and management of its own down jacket brands [3] - Notable brands under the company include Bosideng, Xuezhongfei, and Bingjie, establishing it as a globally recognized down jacket manufacturer [3]

Core Insights - Canada Goose, once a leading luxury down jacket brand, is facing significant challenges in the market, particularly in China, where its growth has slowed dramatically from double digits to just 1% since 2022 [1][6] - The brand's decline is attributed to changing consumer preferences, with middle-class consumers shifting their focus to domestic brands like Bosideng and outdoor brands such as Arc'teryx, Salomon, and Lululemon [1][8][10] - Bain Capital, a major shareholder, is reportedly considering selling its stake in Canada Goose, indicating a potential exit from the brand as it struggles to maintain its luxury status [1][10] Group 1: Rise of Canada Goose - Canada Goose became a popular brand among the middle class in China after its entry in 2018, with a significant increase in store openings from 1 to 20 within three years [4] - The brand's peak was marked by its IPO in 2017, reaching a market value of $7.8 billion [4] - The brand's marketing strategy included collaborations with film productions and sponsorships of major film festivals, which helped elevate its status [2][3] Group 2: Decline in Performance - From 2022 to 2025, Canada Goose's annual sales growth rate plummeted from 21.54% to just 1.1%, with the Greater China region showing minimal growth [6] - The brand has faced management instability in China, changing its regional president three times since 2022, reflecting strategic uncertainty [6] - A significant public relations issue arose in 2021 when a consumer was denied a return in China, leading to a backlash and a perception of the brand as "arrogant" [6][7] Group 3: Market Competition - Competitors like Arc'teryx, Salomon, and Lululemon are gaining market share among middle-class consumers, with Arc'teryx showing strong growth in the Greater China region [8][10] - The rise of domestic brands like Bosideng, which has successfully diversified its product offerings, poses a significant threat to Canada Goose's market position [8][10] - The shift in consumer preferences towards functional outdoor wear, such as jackets and pants, has diminished the appeal of high-priced down jackets [10][11] Group 4: Future Outlook - Canada Goose is attempting to pivot by launching new product lines, such as the Snow Goose spring/summer capsule collection, but the effectiveness of this strategy remains uncertain [10] - The overall trend indicates a cooling market for foreign luxury brands in China, as both high-end and fast-fashion brands face increasing pressure from local competitors and changing consumer attitudes [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bosideng (03998.HK) [2][8] Core Views - Bosideng demonstrates resilience driven by innovation, maintaining stable performance despite high base effects and external disturbances [2] - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in FY2025H2, even with a high base, supported by its strong offline presence and product innovation [2][3] - The forecast for FY2025-2027 net profit is adjusted to 3.51 billion, 4.00 billion, and 4.54 billion CNY respectively, down from previous estimates [2] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue projections for FY2025 are set at 25.54 billion CNY, reflecting a 10% year-over-year growth [5] - Net profit for FY2025 is estimated at 3.51 billion CNY, with a year-over-year increase of 14.3% [5] - Gross margin is expected to slightly decline to 58.5% in FY2025, while net margin is projected to improve to 13.8% [5] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio of over 80% for three consecutive years [2] - The current P/E ratios for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 are projected at 12.5, 10.9, and 9.6 respectively [5]