我们不要太多，105 万，多一辆都算输。 2026 年春节前，零跑 COO 徐军在一封内部信里透露了零跑在销量上的新目标。这一目标和去年 12 月 定下的 100 万相比，又提升了 5%。 对于零跑来说，把年度销量目标直接拉升到百万级，是一个颇为激进的动作，这几乎要求他们在去年的 基础上再翻一番。在 2025 年，零跑的全年交付量是 59.6 万辆，同比增长 103%。 要达成这个目标，光靠在 10 万到 20 万的舒适区里打转显然不够。零跑必须下沉，必须把手伸向体量最 大、同时也最难啃的那块骨头—— 10 万元级市场。 这两年，这个价位段的竞争要比以前激烈了不少。看看现在的销量榜单，比亚迪早就筑起了高墙，吉利 星愿和五菱宾果也各自占据了一方天地。这些车型都很成熟，续航够用、空间够用、配置够用。它们经 过了市场的筛选，非常懂得如何在成本的红线内跳舞。 在这个对价格极度敏感的区间里，不犯错就是最大的美德。 要在这样一群没有明显短板的对手中突围，仅凭「性价比」三个字已经很难奏效了。常规的打法，很难 让零跑从这些巨头口中抢到足够的份额来实现那 105 万辆的野心。 于是，零跑 A10 登场了。这款小型 SUV，从立 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the automotive industry or specific companies within it [26]. Core Insights - The year-end sales data for major automakers indicates a significant divergence in performance, with the typical "year-end tailwind" being weaker than in previous years. The phase-out of the "two-new" subsidy policies is contributing to a trend of slowing or declining sales growth [8][9]. - BYD's November sales were 480,000 units, down 5% year-on-year but up 9% month-on-month, primarily due to weaker domestic demand. Domestic sales were 348,000 units, down 27% year-on-year. Cumulative sales from January to November reached 4.18 million units, an 11% increase year-on-year [9][10]. - Geely's November sales reached 310,000 units, a 24% year-on-year increase, with cumulative sales of 2.79 million units, up 42% year-on-year, putting its annual target of 3 million units within reach. NEV sales for Geely in November were 188,000 units, a 53% year-on-year increase [9][10]. - Leapmotor exceeded 70,000 units in November, marking a 75% year-on-year increase, with cumulative deliveries reaching 536,000 units, surpassing its annual target ahead of schedule [10][11]. - Xiaomi Auto delivered over 40,000 units in November, maintaining this level for three consecutive months, and raised its full-year delivery outlook to over 400,000 units [12]. - Li Auto's November deliveries were 33,000 units, down 32% year-on-year, with cumulative deliveries of 362,000 units, an 18% decrease year-on-year [13]. - NIO's November sales were 36,000 units, a 76% year-on-year increase, but cumulative deliveries totaled 278,000 units, indicating challenges in achieving profitability in Q4 [14][15]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - BYD's November sales were 480,000 units, with domestic sales at 348,000 units, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline [9][10]. - Geely's sales performance showed strong growth, particularly in NEVs, with a notable increase in overseas exports [9][10]. - Leapmotor and Xiaomi Auto demonstrated robust sales growth, exceeding their targets [10][12]. Market Dynamics - The automotive market is experiencing a reshuffling of sales rankings, with leading new energy vehicle (NEV) players facing slowing growth [10][11]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with companies needing to balance volume and profitability as subsidies phase out [15].

Core Insights - The 2025 Guangzhou Auto Show featured 93 global premieres, a significant increase from 78 last year, but the expected excitement was notably absent [1] - Despite the increase in new car launches, the event experienced lower attendance and engagement compared to previous years [1][4] Group 1: New Energy Brands - New energy brands like Xiaomi and Xpeng had less impactful presentations compared to previous events, with fewer high-profile product launches [4][9] - The absence of key executives like Lei Jun and Yu Chengdong at the event contributed to a lack of excitement, as their presence typically generates significant media attention [5][9] - The new energy brands focused more on technology explanations and market performance rather than launching groundbreaking new models, leading to a subdued atmosphere [9][18] Group 2: Traditional Automakers - Traditional automakers showcased a stronger lineup of new energy vehicles, with models like GAC Toyota's Platinum 7 and Audi's E SUV concept drawing more attention [13] - The traditional brands view the Guangzhou Auto Show as a critical platform for strategic positioning and sales momentum, contrasting with the new energy brands' more pragmatic approach [14][36] - High-end sub-brands from traditional manufacturers attracted significant media interest through celebrity appearances and engaging marketing strategies, enhancing their visibility [22][27] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The shift in focus from generating traffic to achieving actual sales reflects a broader industry trend where new energy brands prioritize efficiency and profitability over mere visibility [17][21] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with new energy brands increasingly relying on online channels for customer engagement and sales, reducing their dependence on physical auto shows [17][18] - Traditional brands, while leveraging their established market presence, may risk over-reliance on celebrity endorsements, potentially diverting resources from essential areas like technology development and customer service [31][36] Group 4: Industry Transformation - The contrasting experiences at the Guangzhou Auto Show highlight a fundamental shift in the automotive industry, moving from hype-driven strategies to more sustainable business practices [32][36] - Both new energy and traditional brands must prove their value through innovation, customer experience, and cost management as competition intensifies [36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, particularly emphasizing the importance of smart vehicles as a key investment theme for 2026 [2]. Core Insights - The Guangzhou Auto Show highlights the democratization of intelligent driving and the deep integration of smart cockpits with large models, indicating that intelligence is no longer an added value but a necessity for market entry [2]. - The report suggests focusing on technology-leading companies such as Tesla and XPeng, as well as companies with strong performance and low valuations like Kobot, Xingyu, and Jifeng [2]. - The report also notes the impact of state-owned enterprise reforms, recommending continued attention to SAIC and Dongfeng [2]. Industry Update - According to the China Passenger Car Association, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars in the first week of November were 46,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 19% [2]. - The traditional and new energy raw material price indices have increased recently, with traditional car raw material prices rising by 0.7% week-on-week and 1.8% month-on-month [2]. - The total transaction value of the automotive industry this week was 517.096 billion yuan, a week-on-week decrease of 13.15% [2]. Market Situation - The automotive industry index closed at 7684.80 points, down 2.11% for the week, which is a greater decline than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [2]. - A total of 112 stocks in the industry rose, while 156 fell, with the largest gainers being Langbo Technology, Yingli Automobile, and Xinpeng Co., which rose by 19.6%, 17.6%, and 14.4% respectively [2]. - Key events include the upcoming Guangzhou Auto Show, which will showcase the acceleration of electrification, intelligence, and product diversification in the automotive market [3]. Investment Analysis - The report recommends focusing on domestic leading manufacturers such as NIO, Xiaomi, XPeng, and Li Auto, as well as companies that exemplify the trend of intelligence, such as Jianghuai Automobile and Seres [2]. - It also highlights the importance of state-owned enterprise integration, suggesting attention to SAIC Group, Dongfeng Group, and Changan Automobile [2]. - Companies with strong performance growth and capabilities in robotics or overseas expansion, such as Xingyu, Fuyao Glass, and New Spring, are also recommended [2].

Core Insights - The 2025 Guangzhou Auto Show will feature 93 global debut vehicles, with 629 of the total 1,085 vehicles being new energy models, representing nearly 60% of the exhibition [1] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 56.98% in October, with a year-to-date rate of 52.71%, indicating a significant shift towards electrification in the automotive market [1] - New energy vehicles have transitioned from being a supporting role to becoming the main focus at the auto show, highlighting the industry's transformation [1] Industry Trends - The auto market is experiencing a "Matthew Effect," leading to intensified competition and brand differentiation, with technology iteration and price restructuring occurring simultaneously [4] - New energy vehicles are now the primary attraction at major auto shows, reflecting a shift in consumer interest and market dynamics [5] New Vehicle Highlights - XPeng Motors will unveil its first range-extended vehicle, the XPeng X9 Super Range Extender, at the auto show, which boasts a comprehensive range of 1,602 km and a pure electric range of 452 km [6][8] - The new XPeng X9 aims to capture a larger market share in the popular 300,000 RMB hybrid MPV segment, leveraging its established presence in the pure electric MPV market [8] - The new AITO M9 and other models from traditional manufacturers are also set to showcase their latest offerings, emphasizing the competitive landscape in the high-end SUV market [25] Competitive Landscape - Li Auto's new model, the AITO M8, and other competitors like Tesla's Model 3 are dominating the 250,000-300,000 RMB pure electric sedan market, creating challenges for new entrants like the AITO S9 [12] - Leap Motor plans to introduce three new models, including the Leap Lafa 5 and D19, targeting different market segments with a diverse product lineup [13][16] - The high-end electric vehicle segment is becoming increasingly competitive, with traditional automakers focusing on technology upgrades and market segmentation to capture consumer interest [25][28] Strategic Moves - Lido's new L80 model aims to provide a more affordable five-seat option, enhancing its market appeal by optimizing space and reducing entry costs [18][24] - Lantu will showcase three flagship models at the auto show, emphasizing its self-developed hybrid technology and targeting various consumer needs [26][29] - Zeekr's upcoming model, the Zeekr 8X, is positioned as a "mini flagship," aiming to leverage the success of its larger counterpart, the Zeekr 9X, in the competitive SUV market [30][35] Conclusion - The Guangzhou Auto Show is set to highlight the ongoing transformation in the automotive industry, particularly in the new energy vehicle sector, with a focus on technology advancements and market segmentation [41] - The competition in the high-end SUV market is intensifying, as brands strive to establish their presence and differentiate their offerings in a crowded marketplace [41]