Core Viewpoint - Meituan-W is expected to report a mixed performance for Q4 2025, with revenue forecasts ranging from 772.10 to 931.00 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year change of -12.7% to 5.2% [1][7]. Revenue Forecast - The predicted total revenue for Q4 2025 is between 772.10 and 931.00 billion RMB, with an average estimate of 907.19 billion RMB, indicating a 2.5% year-on-year growth [2][8]. - The median revenue forecast is 916.75 billion RMB, representing a 3.6% increase year-on-year [2][8]. Profit Forecast - The expected net profit for Q4 2025 is projected to be between -204.60 and -104.39 billion RMB, showing a significant year-on-year decline of -428.8% to -267.8% [1][7]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to range from -189.50 to -131.00 billion RMB, with a year-on-year change of -292.4% to -232.7% [1][7]. Business Segment Analysis - **Core Local Business**: Expected revenue of 648 billion RMB, a decline of 1% year-on-year, with the food delivery segment projected to generate 391 billion RMB, down 11% [3][9]. - **Flash Purchase Business**: Anticipated revenue of 89 billion RMB, reflecting a 32% year-on-year increase, with order volume expected to grow by 30% [4][10]. - **In-store and Travel Business**: Forecasted revenue of 162 billion RMB, up 11% year-on-year, with Gross Transaction Value (GTV) expected to increase by 15% [4][11]. - **New Business**: Projected revenue of 268 billion RMB, a 17% increase year-on-year, but with an expected operating loss widening to 45 billion RMB [4][11]. Competitive Landscape - The company is increasing investments in its ecosystem to address competition in the instant retail sector, including enhanced marketing, rider incentives, and merchant support [3][9]. - The competitive pressure is expected to ease slightly in Q4 2025, with total revenue anticipated at 931 billion RMB, a 5.3% year-on-year growth [5][11]. Future Outlook - The adjusted net loss for Q4 2025 is expected to be 133 billion RMB, an improvement from 160 billion RMB in Q3 2025 [5][11]. - The company anticipates a reduction in unit economic losses in the food delivery segment from 2.6 RMB per order to 2 RMB per order due to decreased winter subsidies [5][11]. - For 2027, the adjusted net profit is projected to reach 234 billion RMB, with a target price of 84 HKD based on a 20x price-to-earnings ratio [5][11].

Core Viewpoint - Meituan's Q1 2025 revenue reached 86.6 billion yuan, showing an 18% year-over-year increase, slightly exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] - Adjusted EBITDA was 12.3 billion yuan, up 52% year-over-year, and adjusted net profit was 10.9 billion yuan, a 46% increase, significantly surpassing Bloomberg consensus [1] Revenue Breakdown - Core local business revenue for Q1 2025 was 64.3 billion yuan, also an 18% year-over-year increase, exceeding Bloomberg expectations [1] - New business revenue amounted to 22.2 billion yuan, a 19% year-over-year increase, with an operating loss of 2.3 billion yuan, which was higher than Bloomberg's expectations [1] Business Operations - In the food delivery sector, Meituan enhanced operational efficiency to increase user engagement and purchase frequency, while innovating to empower both supply and demand sides [1] - The launch of differentiated products like "Pin Hao Fan" and "Shen Qiang Shou" aims to meet diverse consumer needs, while the brand satellite store model helps chain merchants reduce costs and improve efficiency [2] Instant Retail Growth - Meituan's instant retail brand "Meituan Flash Purchase" was officially launched, achieving significant growth across various consumer categories [2] - Flash Purchase's transaction volume nearly tripled in May compared to the previous year, with a doubling of sales on the first day of the "618" shopping festival in smaller cities [3] International Expansion - Keeta, a subsidiary, is expanding internationally, having established itself as a leading food delivery service in Hong Kong and covering all major cities in Saudi Arabia, with plans to enter the Brazilian market with a $1 billion investment over five years [3] Future Projections - Revenue projections for Meituan from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 386.3 billion, 454.3 billion, and 526.7 billion yuan, with growth rates of 14%, 18%, and 16% respectively [3] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 38.4 billion, 49.9 billion, and 60.8 billion yuan, with growth rates of -12%, 30%, and 22% respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - In Q1 2025, Meituan's total revenue reached 86.6 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 18%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus expectations by 1.3% [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for the same period was 12.3 billion yuan, up 52% year-over-year, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations by 6.2% [4] - Adjusted net profit was 10.9 billion yuan, a 46% increase year-over-year, significantly surpassing Bloomberg consensus expectations by 12.6% [4] - Core local business revenue was 64.3 billion yuan, also up 18% year-over-year, exceeding expectations by 1.5% [4] - New business revenue was 22.2 billion yuan, a 19% increase year-over-year, also above expectations by 1.4% [4] Summary by Sections Business Performance - Meituan's food delivery and flash purchase businesses have improved user engagement and purchase frequency through refined operations [5] - The food delivery segment has introduced differentiated products to meet diverse consumer needs and has implemented safety measures to enhance food safety transparency [5] - Flash purchase services have seen significant growth across various consumer categories, with transaction volumes tripling in certain areas [5] International Expansion - Keeta, a subsidiary, is expanding internationally, having entered the Saudi Arabian market and recently announced plans to enter Brazil with a commitment to invest 1 billion USD over the next five years [6] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 386.3 billion, 454.3 billion, and 526.7 billion yuan, with growth rates of 14%, 18%, and 16% respectively [7] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 38.4 billion, 49.9 billion, and 60.8 billion yuan, with growth rates of -12%, 30%, and 22% respectively [7] Long-term Outlook - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook on Meituan's operational capabilities and business barriers, emphasizing the company's strong execution in the retail sector [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" (maintained) [2][8] Core Insights - In Q4 2024, Meituan's total revenue reached 885 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year increase of 20%, slightly above consensus expectations by 0.6% [5] - Adjusted EBITDA for the same period was 115 billion RMB, showing a year-over-year growth of 207%, but fell short of consensus expectations by 1.7% [5] - Adjusted net profit was 98 billion RMB, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 98%, which was in line with expectations [5] - Core local commerce revenue for Q4 2024 was 656 billion RMB, up 19% year-over-year, exceeding consensus expectations by 0.4% [5] - New business revenue was 229 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 24%, also surpassing consensus expectations by 1.1% [5] Revenue Breakdown - Core local commerce revenue was 656 billion RMB with an operating profit of 129 billion RMB, up 61% year-over-year, exceeding expectations by 10.6% [5] - New business revenue was 229 billion RMB, with an operating loss of 22 billion RMB, which narrowed by 55% year-over-year [5][6] Business Expansion - Meituan's food delivery and flash purchase businesses are expanding, with transaction users exceeding 770 million and active merchants reaching 14.5 million, both hitting record highs [6] - The company launched a 1 billion RMB merchant support plan in Q4 2024 to enhance service quality and operational efficiency [5][6] - Flash purchase services have partnered with over 5,600 large retail chains and 570 brand merchants, covering over 200 cities with more than 30,000 warehouses [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 393 billion RMB, 454 billion RMB, and 521 billion RMB, with growth rates of 16%, 16%, and 15% respectively [7] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 48 billion RMB, 55 billion RMB, and 66 billion RMB, with growth rates of 10%, 14%, and 20% respectively [7] - The long-term outlook for Meituan remains positive due to its operational efficiency and business barriers [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" (maintained) [2][8] Core Insights - In Q4 2024, Meituan's total revenue reached 885 billion CNY, representing a year-over-year increase of 20%, slightly above consensus expectations by 0.6% [5] - Adjusted EBITDA was 115 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 207%, but 1.7% below consensus expectations [5] - Adjusted net profit was 98 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 98%, aligning closely with expectations [5] - Core local commerce revenue for Q4 2024 was 656 billion CNY, up 19% year-over-year, exceeding consensus expectations by 0.4% [5] - New business revenue was 229 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 24%, also above consensus expectations by 1.1% [5] Revenue Breakdown - Core local commerce revenue for Q4 2024 was 656 billion CNY, with an operating profit of 129 billion CNY, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 61% [5] - New business revenue was 229 billion CNY, with an operating loss of 22 billion CNY, which is a 55% reduction in losses year-over-year [5][6] Business Expansion - Meituan's transaction user base exceeded 770 million, with active merchants increasing to 14.5 million, both reaching record highs [6] - The food delivery and Meituan Flash Purchase businesses are expanding rapidly, with a cash support plan of 1 billion CNY launched to assist merchants [6] - Meituan Flash Purchase has partnered with over 5,600 large retail chains and 410,000 local merchants, covering over 200 cities with more than 30,000 warehouses [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 393 billion CNY, 454 billion CNY, and 521 billion CNY, with growth rates of 16%, 16%, and 15% respectively [7] - Adjusted net profit projections for the same period are 48 billion CNY, 55 billion CNY, and 66 billion CNY, with growth rates of 10%, 14%, and 20% respectively [7] - The report maintains a long-term positive outlook on Meituan's operational efficiency and business barriers [7]